Project details : 2017

The basic data, i.e. China's industry level productivity accounts have been revised, taking into account the newly available Chinese 2012 input-output tables, and updated to 2015, which is important to capture the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis and aftermath.
While we are still waiting for the construction of the import price index, we preliminarily show that China's TFP post the crisis remained in the negative zone. The reallocation of labor maintained its positive trend, but the reallocation of capital was negative though somewhat improving.

We constructed a secure computation system that could analyze large-scale data and join two tables together by using a common key while the data and tables are kept secret. We then performed tabulation on simulant data of national census, joined two tables of EDINET data, and analyzed the joined table via that system. As a result, we empirically confirmed that one can perform tabulated analysis of the large scale data as well as analyze two different tables by joining them, while all the data and tables are kept secret. We plan to proceed to more practical study based on actual scenarios of real users, such as administrative agencies and researchers.

Naoki Aiwaza(University of Minnesota), Yukiko Asai(The University of Tokyo), Yasuo Urakawa(Kyusyu University), Ryo Kambayashi(IER), Yuki Hashimoto(Kyushu University), Kyoji Fukao(IER), Shintaro Yamaguchi(McMaster University), Nobuaki Yamashita（Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University)

Kyoji Fukao(IER), Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virginia University)

From July 11 to 19, 2017, Professor Nishioka visited IER, Hitotsubashi University and collect the data on Japanese FDI. We hired Ms. Doi as a Research Assistant (RA) from September to October 2017 in order to organize and check the data. Professor Fukao and Nishioka held a meeting on December 27, 2017 and discussed the progress of the research project. Professor Olson presented the paper at Joint Usage and Research Center Programs Seminar at IER on March 15, 2018. We are currently revising the paper for publication.

Takashi Unayama(IER), Taro Ohno(Shinshu University), Ryo Kambayashi(IER), Shinpei Sano(Chiba University), Masayoshi Hayashi(The University of Tokyo), Shun-ichiro Bessho(The University of Tokyo), Koyo Miyoshi(Aichi-Gakuin University)

We considered the potential research plan using microdata from "Statistical Survey of Actual Status for Salary in the Private Sector". Since the survey has never used in an academic research, it was quite important to verify differences from other statistics such as "Basic Survey for Wage Structure". We concluded that a variable associated with a tax deduction for persons with disabilities should play an important role to exploit the information, and so we started reviewing the literature about employment of the disabled. The application to use microdata is a future topic.

Kazuhiro Kumo(IER), Yuka Takeda(Kyushu University), Yuko Adachi(Sophia University), Noriko Igarashi(Tenri University)

This study aimed at examining economic conditions of husbands and wives in the labor market, the division of labour between them and their effects on the probability of having children. More precisely, the goal of this study was to investigate and compare the employment and labor division between husbands and wives on the number of children they are having or planning to have. The advantage of such study was in their comparative aspect of three different country cases which are varying in social policies, cultural perceptions of males' and females' roles at work and in the family, values and religion.
We successfully collected data on Russia, Ukraine and UAI, and finished preparation for data collection in Japan. Several trial analyses were conducted and presented in conferences etc.

Toshiaki Watanabe(IER), Masato Ubukata(Kushiro Public University of Economics), Daisuke Nagakura(Keio University), Makoto Takahashi(Osaka University)

The realized stochastic volatility model proposed by Takahashi, Omori and Watanabe (2009) is extended such that the conditional distribution of returns follows the Azzalini -type skew-t distribution. The new multivariate stochastic model based on the Choleski decomposition of the realized covariance matrices is also proposed using the high frequency data. Bayesian methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo are developed for the estimation of these two models. It is shown that the former model fits the data on stock returns better than the other models while the latter model performs better in the portfolio selection.

Chiaki Moriguchi(IER), Eunhwa Kang(Saitama Prefecture University)

We compared the development of child and adult adoption practices in Continental Europe, East Asia, and Anglo-Saxon countries and examined common factors and divergent forces that shaped adoption laws and policies.
To provide comparable historical statistics, we have collected adoption data in France, Germany, Sweden, England, United States, Japan, and Korea. We are in the process of collecting additional historical data on fertility, marriage, family planning, and child welfare programs.

Yukinobu Kitamura(IER), Takashi Unayama(IER), Masaaki Kawagoe(Japan Center for Economic Research), Yukiko Ito(Japan Center for Economic Research), Masato Takara(Japan Center for Economic Research), Rieko Nagamachi(Otemon Gakuin University), Hideo Akabayashi(Keio University), Shimpei Sano(Chiba University), Bruce Chapman(The Australian National University), Shiro Armstrong(The Australian National University), Lorraine Deardon(University College London), Maki Yokoyama(Ochanomizu University), Megumi Nimura(Ochanomizu University)

Using Japanese Labor Force Survey and Japanese General Social Survey, we estimated income distribution of university graduates by income bracket, thereby estimating budget cost of the government for different income contingent schemes.

Tetsuji Okazaki(The University of Tokyo), Yukinobu Kitamura(IER), Junichi Yamasaki(Kobe University), Ken Miura(Brown University)

We studied the regional pattern of economic growth and intra-urban persistence of economic activities in Tokyo-city using the Great Kanto Earthquake and its subsequent large fires in 1923 as a large temporary shock. Empirical results from the comparison between burned and unburned city-districts found that both population and proxies for production activities reverted back to their pre-trend at least 10 years later, although the natural disaster was the most destructive in the recent Japanese history. Exploiting the timing of fire speared as a source of variations in the decline of local population, preliminary results also found that districts which had experienced fire sooner exhibited the strengthened pattern of population trend in the burned areas. The observed high ratios of subtenants and vacant residential houses in such districts suggest the presence of high housing rent, which gives a rationale for policy intervention to rental housing market despite the overall convergence at a micro spatial scale.

Yessica C. Y. CHUNG(National Pingtung University of Science and Technology), Yukinobu Kitamura(IER), Takeshi Maru(IER), Atsushi Chitose(Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology)

We have analyzed the behaviors of food processing firms engaging into the agricultural industrialization using the MAFF Agricultural Industrialization Survey. We applied the frame work of land transmission and examined the contribution by these firms to the local production and local consumption (LPLC) policy. As well as regional differences, the organizational structure affected their behaviors: private corporations and JAs had low rate of LPLC while small individual enterprises had high rate of LPLC.

Osamu Saito(Hitotsubashi University), Kyoji Fukao(IER), Tokihiko Settsu(Musashi University), Masanori Takashima(IER)

The notion that modern economic growth was accompanied by an increase in the share of the labour force in the secondary sector and that only at a later date did the share of the tertiary sector began to grow is a deep-seated scholarly orthodoxy in both economic history and development economics (called 'Petty's law'). However, this is being questioned by recent empirical studies. The project focused on modern Japan, which had hitherto been considered a typical case of this general pattern, and found that the Japanese pattern was different from that of Germany's as well as of Britain's.

Kan Viktoriya(Teikyo University), Koichi Nobe(Senshu University), Ichiro Iwasaki(IER), Kazuhiro Kumo(IER)

In the course of the project, Sugiura and Kan have carried out constriction of base dataset for estimation of long-term GDP statistics in former Soviet Central Asian Republics and, basing on it, worked out a tentative GDP estimates for 100 years. They also made a progress in development of financial and labor statistics in these countries. On the other hand, Nobe, Iwasaki, and Kumo have advanced construction of 1910-2010 dataset of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, mining and manufacturing, construction industries as well as population statistics.

Hor Darith(Ministry of Planning), Daisuke Sakata(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), Kiyomi Shirakawa(IER), Yutaka Abe(National Statistics Center), Zheng Yantong(Simplex Inc.)

We conducted an empirical analysis of "disparities in income in Japan and problems of poverty" based on anonymized microdata on the National survey of family income and expenditure. We also analyzed the present situation based on microdata of Cambodia's economic census and socioeconomic survey.
Furthermore, the comparison of consumption expenditure structure in Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam was analyzed. In addition, we analyzed the poverty surrounding Asia. In the future, we will empirically analyze income disparities in Japan and Cambodia, poverty problems and urbanization.

Yukinobu Kitamura(IER), Takeshi Miyazaki(Kyushu University), Taro Ohno(Shinshu University), Kazuyasu Sakamoto(Gunma University)

This study attempts to reveal how the redistributive effects of tax rates and deduction s are different among age-groups. It is found that expansion of tax deductions carried out in the late 1980s had effects only on elderly people, but not on young people. Regarding the relationship between inequality and region, it is found that urban areas have larger inequality in pretax and posttax incomes than rural areas. In addition, the redistributive effects of income tax are larger in urban than in rural area.
In addition, we analyzed the influence of wife's employment behaviors after childbirth (continuation of employment, continuation of unemployment, turnover, reinstatement) on movement of income hierarchy. As a result, we found that the wife continued to work and returned to work after childbirth urged the high-income household to move upwards, and the wife continued to be unemployed promoted downward movement of low-income households.

Minoru Hayashida(Kitakyushu University), Takashi Unayama(IER), Naomi Kodama(Hitotsubashi University), Takahisa Dejima(Sophia University), Shinsuke Ito(Chuo University), Mariko Murata(Statistical Information Institute for Consulting and Analysis), Keiichi Sato(Senshu University)

This research attempts the development of a microsimulation model for population projection based on demographic data from "Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions". This research also explores the relationship between residential area data such as real estate prices, and residents' consumption and household assets using individual data from the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. Partial results of this research were presented at the fiscal year 2017 workshop 'Actual Situation of the Social Economy Based on Microdata' held at Hitotsubashi University in February 2018, and will be published as a discussion paper by the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University and in other publications.

Iichiro Uesugi(IER), Huiyu Li(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Takeo Hoshi(Stanford University)

This paper corrects bias in inflation measurement for Japan using methods from Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li (2017). We find that the correction increases Japan's productivity growth by 0.38 percentage points per year over 1997--2009. This is smaller than the bias found in the U.S. As a result, the U.S.-Japan productivity growth gap increases by 0.24 percentage points per year over 1997--2009. Our results suggest that innovation of entry establishments in U.S. was larger than that in Japan in this period.

Kohei Komamura(Keio University), Masato Shikata(Kwansei Gakuin University), Kuriko Watanabe(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

Firstly this research analyzed the factors of employment income inequality using micro-data of Employment Status Survey. The changes in seniority-based wage and increase of non-regular employment contributed to widening inequality of employment income. In the analysis, I smoothed the data to address the changes of income bracket on Employment Status Survey. Secondarily we decomposed the housing cost burden rate by age groups and housing tenure types using micro-data of national survey of family income and expenditure. The results of our analysis suggest that the housing cost burden rate and overburden rate has increased in recent years and the housing problem has arisen on elderly people living in privately rented housing.

Kozo Miyagawa(Rissho University), Kiyomi Shirakawa(IER), Tsunenori Ashiya(Hyogo Prefectural Government), Tatsuo Oi(Wakayama University), Shinsuke Ito(Chuo University), Ryota Chiba(IER)

This research uses Big Data to empirically analyze the effect of tourism on regional economies in Japan. This research identifies tourist destinations using GIS based information, conducts a dynamic analysis of overseas tourists' activities based on GPS data and attempts to visualize their behavioral patterns. Partial results of this research were presented at the the fiscal year 2017 workshop 'Actual Situation of the Social Economy Based on Microdata' held at Hitotsubashi University in Feburary 2018, and will be published as a discussion paper by the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University and in other publications.

Rene Belderbos(University of Leuven), Kyouji Fukao(IER)

About two weeks in September 2017, the represented researcher, Kenta Ikeuchi. visited the University of Leuven in Belgium, and in collaboration with René Belderbos, a research contributor, he gave a conference on a joint research project and wrote a paper and also made a presentation at the internal seminar at the University of Leuven. Some of the results were presented at a research meeting held at Hitotsubashi Hall on January 26th 2018 and the other conferences and workshops. Based on these results, we plan to publish discussion papers and submit to peer reviewed journals in the future.

Naohito Abe(IER), Yoko Ibuka(Keio University), Haruko Noguchi(Waseda University), Chiaki Moriguchi(IER)

Adding nutritional information to retail price surveys and household expenditure surveys, we estimated a price per calorie and a unit price of major nutrients at the prefecture level from 1985 to 2015. For computing a price index, we used the GEKS methods. Our analysis shows that, at the national level, the price per calorie has changed relatively little over three decades, while the unit prices of protein, dietary fiber, and potassium have increased considerably. At the regional level, the unit price of fat has declined in eastern Japan but increased in western Japan, showing a stark contrast. We plan to study the impacts of nutrient prices on nutritional intake and health outcomes in future research.