プロジェクト研究： 2021（令和3）年度採択課題一覧

神林龍 (一橋大学経済研究所)

This project offers the following objectives. We focus on the unique wage structure in the Japanese labour market and examine how the wage structure inside firms affects the rate and direction of corporate innovation merging several micro-data sources.

Objective 1: We built a comprehensive firm-level dataset, merging wage information from the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (BSWS) to firm accounting data in the Basic Survey of Business Structure and Activity, conducted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (hereafter, the 'METI data') as well as corporate innovation, measured by patents data stored at the Japan Patent Office.

Objective 2: Using the constructed dataset we will undertake the empirical analysis focusing on two sources of the wage-based incentive provisions within firms - the bonus and the long-term incentives - to estimate its effects on innovation outcomes.

Innovation forms a pillar in the company's competitive advantage, determining future profitability, the growth trajectory and the survivorship in the competitive environment. The stream of research in economics and management strategy have studied several driving forces behind innovation. Inter alia, the design of the incentive structure occupies great interests because of its relevance to the management of innovation. However, there is a dearth of evidence to assess what incentives at the lower level of the organizational hierarchy work to stimulate corporate innovation, while most of the studies have looked at the incentive provisions to R&D managers and CEO as a means of stimulating innovation. This is perhaps due to the following reasons. First, we do not have a universally agreed means of incentives at the level of R&D employees, while managerial level can be offered the performance-based package such as the stock options. Second, there looms a significant challenge in the data collecting since an incentive scheme is harder to measure it. Simply put, from the managers' point of views, we have little understanding of what the incentive structure works for R&D workers who are actually engaged in inventive activities.

Liang Licheng (慶應義塾大学)，Chang, Silva, Mateus (慶應義塾大学)

東アジア・東南アジアでは、1990年代より主に機械系の製造業を中心に国際的な生産・流通ネットワークが形成されてきた。これまでの理論・実証研究では、国際的生産ネットワークは、国際的フラグメンテーションや国際的工程間分業と呼ばれ、その形成メカニズムとして、貿易自由化による関税、非関税障壁の撤廃などの広義の国家間貿易コストの低下、そして賃金格差などの立地優位性にあるとされている。2000 年代以降、国際貿易理論では企業レベルのデータを用いた研究が主流となっており、近年ではこのような企業レベルでの国際生産ネットワークの分析が進んでいる。特に、このネットワークの形成には多国籍企業が重要な役割を果たしていることから、海外直接投資の文脈での研究が行われてきた。しかし、多くの既存研究は企業が海外生産開始の意思決定（Extensive margin, 外延の変化）に注目するものが多く、海外進出企業のその後の生産拠点の拡大や移転、再調整（Intensive margin, 内延の変化）についてはあまり分析されていない。海外に複数の生産拠点を持つ多国籍企業がどのように生産拠点を拡大しているのか、また、日本の本社の雇用に対する影響という点については適切なデータが整備されていないこともあり、十分に研究されていない。このような背景を理解することは、アジア経済の将来や日本の産業の空洞化を考える上で、ますます重要になってくると考えられる。

本研究では、具体的には、(I) 中国の賃金上昇やASEAN-plus-oneと呼ばれるASEAN諸国による地域貿易協定の締結などによる経済環境の変化、(II) 環境保護規制等の制度的要因が、東アジア・東南アジア諸国を中心とする日系多国籍業の生産拠点の再配置に及ぼす影響ついて分析する。(I) については東アジア・東南アジアの途上国政府は、雇用創出や技術伝播を期待して多国籍企業の誘致に力を入れているが、一方で、多国籍企業は、外的環境の変化に応じて生産拠点の再配置を行ってため、途上国政府では多国籍企業の流出リスクに晒されている。たとえば、かつて「世界の工場」と呼ばれた中国で人件費が高騰し、多国籍企業が生産拠点を見直す動きを加速させている。さらに、2018年より深刻化した米中貿易戦争による関税引き上げ競争による影響も無視できない。また、立地の有意性は、地域貿易協定への参加状況によっても変わってくると考えられる。アジア地域では、2020年11月には地域的な包括的経済連携協定（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership）が締結され、また中国や韓国、タイなどが2018年に発効した環太平洋パートナーシップ(TPP)への参加を検討するなど多国間の自由貿易協定の拡大が続いており、こうした外的環境の変化により多国籍企業の生産拠点の再構築が進められていると考えられる。本研究では、こうした経済的・政策的な要因がどの程度日系多国籍業の生産拠点の拡大・再配置に影響をもたらしているかを分析する。(II) は、国際経済学、および環境経済学分野で古くから議論されている、環境規制が汚染型産業の規制の緩い周辺地域に向けた移転を促す効果（Pollution Heaven Hypothesis, 汚染地回避仮説) を分析するものである。汚染地回避仮説については、様々な実証研究がある(Henderson, 1996, AER; Greenstone, 2002, JPE; Marconi, 2012, Rev Int Econ)が対象とすると地域や分析手法により、その結果は異なっている。また、海外直接投資に関連するものは数少なく（例：Kirkpatricka and Shimamoto, 2009, Applied Economics）、多国籍企業の立地選択の枠組み、すなわち多国籍企業の外延（Extenstive margin）に基づくものしか存在しない。近年、東アジア諸国でも環境への関心が高まり環境規制の強化が進められていることを踏まえ、本研究では、こうした制度的な変化が、多国籍企業の生産拠点の新規立地のみならず、既存の生産拠点の再配置を促しているかを検討するものである。

Kucheryavyy Konstantin (東京大学)，深尾京司 (一橋大学経済研究所)

Foreign direct investment (FDI) activities by multinational companies (MNCs) are increasingly important in the process of global fragmentation of production (Alfaro&Chen,2014 JIE). However, the role of dynamics to explain firms' decision to participate in it has not yet been extensively studied, and, in particular, for Japan. Therefore, this study aims at addressing the following questions:

(i) What are outward activities' dynamics of Japanese firms?

(ii) How do trade costs affect these dynamics?

Research background and goals

The process of internationalization of Japanese firms and the FDI location decision was discussed in many studies using firm-level data (e.g. "Internationalization of Japanese Firms" edited by Wakasugi, 2014). Due to the lack of data and empirical evidence these studies were mainly static in nature. Recently there have been a growing interest in dynamics of FDI and exports entry and exit using firm level data (e.g. in Gumpert et al. 2020 JIE for German, French and Norwegian firms).

To the best of applicant's knowledge there is a limited research on the dynamics of FDI entry and exit for Japan. In order to understand the peculiarities of Japanese firms' global activities the applicant already attempted to examine the dynamics of FDI and exports entry and exit decisions by emphasizing the learning by exporting mechanism. Preliminary results are published in RIETI Discussion Paper in Deseatnicov and Kucheryavyy (2017).

The goal of the proposed project is to extend previous research in several dimensions:

1. First, we would like to focus our attention on the effect of trade costs in shaping the dynamics of FDI entry subject to previous export experience.

2. Second, we would like to extend the analysis by employing alternative empirical methods as a robustness check. In order to investigate further this process, the proposed research will attempt to identify how exports entry and exit dynamics affects FDI entry decision. For instance, the traditional proximity concentration theory suggests that FDI and exports are substitutes (Helpman et al 2004 AER). However, recent research on Belgian firms has shown that they can be compliments (Conconi et al 2016 JIE). The firms may explore market by exporting before starting to invest there. Therefore, the applicant aims at exploring the dynamics in outward activities of Japanese firms and how trade costs affect these patterns.

Research originality

Although there is an extensive literature on MNCs activities and outsourcing to the best of the applicant's knowledge the question of FDI and exports entry and exit dynamics has not been well addressed by researchers yet, and, in particular, for Japan. The proposed research will attempt to fill in this gap. It will elucidate dynamic behavior in outward activities of Japanese firms and will suggest a mechanism to explain this process by learning and trade costs' effect. In sum, the proposed research aims at bringing dynamics to the analysis of outward FDI activity by Japanese firms.

馬欣欣 (富山大学)，岡部智人 (青山学院大学)，田中雅行 (一橋大学経済研究所)，伊藤孝之 (一橋大学経済研究所)，Xiaobo Qu (中国社会科学院)，Jie Cheng (中国社会科学院)，Matthew Sobek (ミネソタ大学)

【研究目的】本研究は，日本における女性の管理職率及び正規社員率の低さ等のジェンダーギャップを縮小するためのAI（人工知能）を核としたDX(デジタルトランスフォーメーション)の有効性を検証し，少子高齢化が進んでいる日本の労働雇用政策や家族政策を提言することを目的とする。

2020年度は，在宅勤務がジェンダーギャップの要因となる雇用制度と性別分業とビジネス慣行の相互依存関係を改善するための分析を行った。特に，日本における専業主婦が定着した時期・経緯や男女間の就労に関するミスマッチ（現職と希望の職種・就業形態）を明確にした。しかし，在宅勤務の問題点も明確になった。2021年度は，女性の管理職率及び正規社員率の低さの要因を，女性就業率が高い中国と比較し，人的資本，家族構造などの要因が女性就業に与える影響の日中間の差異を明らかにする。さらに，５G（第5世代移動通信方式）やAIを核としたDXによる在宅勤務等によるジェンダーギャップを縮小させるための企業及び家庭からみた最適な活用方法を提案する。

【学術的特色】労働市場における男女間格差をテーマにした先行研究は多々あるが，多くの実証研究は男女間賃金格差や就業形態の男女差異を焦点としたものである（Blau and Kahn　1992, 1996；Daly　et al., 2006; 富田　1988；樋口　1991;　中田　1997；川口2008； Gustafsson　and Li, 2000;馬2009a, 2009b; Li and Ma, 2014）。一方，労働市場における就業のミスマッチに関しては，教育過剰（overeducation）による学歴のミスマッチ（Cohn and Khan1995；McGuinness　2006; Levin and Oosterbeek2011）については既に実証研究が行われているが，職業や就業形態におけるミスマッチ　（例えば，現在の職業と希望する職業のミスマッチ）を明らかにしている研究が少ない。日本における女性の雇用状況は年齢別の就業M字カーブに色濃く反映されており,結婚出産後の再就職時に女性が就労のミスマッチを安易に受け入れることを示唆している。この潜在的ミスマッチは，需要側（企業）の要求に，供給側（労働者）が本来望んでいない就職を容認することで作り出されていると考えられるが，データ上で識別する手段がない。本研究では，国勢調査や就業構造基本調査などの政府統計のミクロデータに基づいて，就労に対する女性の潜在的ミスマッチを推定する。また，職業のミスマッチに関連する問題としては，欧米諸国の女性の管理職率（40％以上）と比較して，日本の女性の管理職率（14％）が低く,女性側に多くのミスマッチが存在していると考えられている　（馬・乾・児玉2018）。本研究では，職階に関するミスマッチについても検討を行い, 新たなエビデンスを提供する。さらに，日本と中国の比較を行い，女性就業のメカニズム，労働市場，労働政策の差異を明らかにすることにより東アジアの女性就業に関する政策を提言する。

特筆すべきアプローチとして, 現在進行中(2020年度)の在宅勤務におけるDXの影響独自調査を2021年度も継続して行い,中国との比較検証に取り組む計画である。

以上のように，本研究は，学術的に有意義な研究であり，国際比較研究への貢献が期待できるものであることを強調しておきたい。

René Belderbos (KU Leuven)

Project 1. Weak IP protection and expatriates

Literature have showed that various internal mechanism within a multinational enterprise (MNE) can facilitates knowledge transfer from a parent firm to its subsidiaries in a host country with weak intellectual property (IP) protection. For instance, MNEs tend to transfer valuable knowledge of the parent firms to the foreign operations in weak IP protection countries when the operations have home country expatriates (Berry, 2017). Moreover, although IP risks in host countries can weaken the positive relationship between foreign R&D investments and market value, this effect disappears if firms have developed a pronounced internal linkage strategy, such as intra-firm collaboration across different locations, in weak IP environments (Belderbos et al., forthcoming). However, it is not clear which factors have an influence on the relationship between the internal mechanisms and knowledge transfer within a firm under uncertainty in IP protection.

It is argued that external linkages of a MNE's foreign subsidiaries to local actors conducting R&Ds can affect the level of control by the parent firm and information sharing within a MNE through the internal linkages (Asakawa, 2001). Previous studies have not sufficiently considered such effects. Therefore, in this research project we focus on the impact of external linkages of a foreign subsidiary of a MNE on the use of intra-firm mechanism such as expatriates and internal research collaboration to mitigate the negative effect of weak IP environment. In the proposed research project, we examine what is the impact of external linkages of a foreign subsidiary of a MNE on the use of such intra-firm mechanism to mitigate the negative effect of weak IP environment on knowledge transfer from the parent firm to the affiliate.

Project 2. Changes in innovative activities after cross-border M&As

M&As are often used as a means of acquiring technologies. Previous studies have shown that long-term efforts to integrate acquiring and acquired firms after M&As (Post Merger Integration: PMI) affect the success and failure of the M&A (Zollo and Meier, 2008). Researchers have investigated the impact of M&As on firms' R&D activities and the performance (Ahuja and Katila, 2001; Cassiman et al., 2005; Colombo and Rabbiosi, 2014).

In the context of cross-border M&As, it is shown that M&A increases the innovation of the acquiring company but decrease the innovation of the acquired company, suggesting the relocation of innovation activities (Stiebale, 2016). However, the factors influencing such asymmetrical changes in innovation activities between acquiring and acquired firms have not been well y investigated. In the proposed research project, we explore determinants of changes in innovative activities and the technological portfolios of acquired foreign subsidiaries of Japanese firms after they were acquired, considering various factors such as subsidiaries' and firms' technological features and characteristics of the host countries. In particular, we expect that subsidiaries that are locally embedded in strong local innovation networks, may increase R&D and technological scope subsequent to acquisition.

臼井恵美子 (一橋大学経済研究所)

Improvements in female labor market conditions have been found to lead to improved human capital investments for girls. The literature has proposed two main reasons for this. First, improved labor market conditions for women in general could strengthen the bargaining power of mothers, who may have stronger preferences for investing in children (and daughters in particular). A second common explanation is that improved female labor market conditions increase the future economic value of girls, thereby increasing the returns to investments in them. In empirical analyses, it is difficult to tease out these two explanations. In this project, we seek to provide evidence for the second mechanism, using data on parents' aspirations and expectations for their children.

Much of the literature on gender bias in parental investments has focused on developing countries or countries documented to have strong son preference. However, women lag behind men in a number of dimensions across most countries in the world, making this an important issue to study even in developed countries.

In this project, we plan to explore differences in parental investments into boys and girls in Japan. The main goal of the study is to investigate whether Japan's increase in female labor force participation in recent years has led to increases in investments in girls. Importantly, we hope to estimate the extent to which the link between female labor market conditions and investments is driven by changes in expectations and aspirations for daughters.

Jonathan Eaton (ペンシルベニア州立大学)，土井康裕 (名古屋大学)

Due to the aging population and the low birth rate in Japan, a labor shortage has emerged as a central economic problem. To cope with the tight labor supply, the nation's economy has increased its dependence on foreign workers over the course of the last decades. Introduction of new visa schemes, such as the Long-Term Residence for the Japanese diaspora from Latin America and the Technical Intern Trainee Program, has expanded foreign employment significantly. As of 2019, the total number of foreign workers exceeds 1.6 million, which accounts 2.5% of total workers in Japan (Table D2 and D3 in Appendix 1). Furthermore, the National Diet approved legislation in 2019, that will open the door to blue-collar workers from overseas by establishing a new working visa classification, the Designated Skill. The Government expects to accept more than 340 thousand workers in the next four years under the new scheme. This major immigration reform supersedes the 1988 Sixth Basic Act on Employment Measure which had been limiting the provision of working visas to only skilled workers for the last 30 years. Thus, assessing the impacts of immigrant workers on the structure of production and on labor market outcomes are particularly important from the economic policy perspective.

In studying the implications of immigrant workers, uncovering the distribution of foreign workers across regions, industries, and occupations will be crucial. As of 2019, the share of foreign workers in the total number of workers in each prefecture ranges from 5.9% in Tokyo to 0.4% in Akita (Table D3). Across industries, there is a 9.6% point-gap between Manufacturing of Food Products sector, 9.8%, and Electric, Gas, Water, and Heat Supply sector, 0.2% (Table D4). The foreign employment share varies substantially across prefectures within a sector too (Table D5). The spatial distribution of foreign workers is also heterogeneous across visa status (Table D2). For instance, among Brazilian workers, 99% of whom has the residence based on civil status (e.g., the Long-Term Residence), more than half of them resides in the Tokai area, the manufacturing cluster of Japan (Table D6). Furthermore, above 60% of Brazilian workers in Tokai engages in production occupation (Table D7). There will be a number of factors that lead to the uneven spread of foreign workers across regions, sectors, and occupations--e.g., heterogeneous regional amenities and productivities as well as different comparative advantages across occupations. Incorporating those factors into the analysis will be particularly important to assess the implications of past and future immigration policies. Moreover, it is necessary to identify empirically the substitutability (complementarity) of workers across different occupations in order to discuss the labor market implications of accepting foreign workers.

Given this background, objectives of this project are three-fold: (1) we provide a detailed descriptions of the distribution of foreign workers across regions, industries, and occupations using the novel governmental micro data; (2) we will study the impacts of immigrant workers on production structures and labor market outcomes by developing and quantifying a spatial general equilibrium model based on the assignment framework; (3) as the final goal of this project, we will use the model to do counterfactual analysis and derive implications for foreign employment policies.

There are two major academic features of this project. First, to the best of our knowledge, there are no comprehensive studies on immigrant workers and their implications for regional economies in Japan. Documenting the detailed distribution of foreign workers using the novel micro data will allow us to uncover the heterogeneous exposures of the foreign workers across regions, industries, and occupations, which constitutes an important contribution to the literature. By merging the multiple firm-level datasets, we also attempt to elucidate potentially important characteristics of firms hiring foreign workers, which will expand the scope of future research. Second, recently, there is a growing literature in the field of international trade and spatial economics which studies the impacts of migrant workers using a quantitative general equilibrium framework, e.g., Bryan and Morten (2019), Khanna and Morales (2019), Monras (2020). We believe that this project will push the frontier of the structural analysis of migration and will contribute to the policy studies on foreign employment in Japan by providing a toolkit to assess the implications of future reforms on skill-specific immigration policy.

Takehiko Kariya (オックスフォード大学)，Man Yee Kan (オックスフォード大学)，Kamila Kolpashnikova (オックスフォード大学)，白川清美 (独立行政法人統計センター)，Muzhi Zhou (オックスフォード大学)

This study aims to investigate the associations between activity patterns of children (aged 10-19), parenting styles and households characteristics in Japan. I applied with this project to carry out research in Japan between 04.2020 and 03.2021. Unfortunately, because of the Covid pandemic, I have not been able to visit Japan work at the onsite facilities. Support from my Japanese collaborators has meant that I was able to continue my research and was able to publish a few papers using Japanese time use data. However, work goes considerably slower when we have to exchange do-files rather than working together in an onsite facility. Consequently many of my proposed objectives repeat and extend those proposed in December 2019.

A growing body of literature is documenting how children from families of different socioeconomic status spend their time differently. There is an increasing gap in the time children from families with higher and lower socioeconomic status spend engaging in developmentally beneficial activities, such as studying, reading with parents and so on. A related strand of academic research, "diverging destinies" literature, details how women at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum are increasingly making family-related choices associated with less advantageous children's outcomes. Much of the evidence for the "diverging destinies" argument comes from the US, but increasing socio-economic bifurcation in family environments has also been documented for other rich societies including Japan (see Raymo & Iwasawa, 2016).

There is little research so far that looks at the consequences that increasing socioeconomic differences in family contexts are having for the daily lives of the next generation of children growing outside western context. This is despite the evidence that parents are likely to promote their children's well-being and future achievement differently in different socio-cultural contexts (Doepke & Zilibotti, 2019; Gracia et al., 2019). Japan's Surveys on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA) is one of the highest quality and longest running sets of time use data in the East Asia. The quality of the data will enable us to provide the first detailed description of Japanese children's daily routines and how they vary by natal family backgrounds.

The project core aims are as follows:

1. Provide a detailed description of children's daily routines in Japan between 1991 and 2016.

2. Analyse how these routines vary depending on a number of natal family background characteristics including household income, parental education levels, parental employment statuses, and time availability. In particular, we will consider the potential reflection of growing social inequality in Japan in parenting practices and children's daily routines.

3. We will consider policy implications of our findings and produce policy recommendations.

4. Finally we will put our findings on Japan into comparative perspective using time use data from western countries, in particular UK

白川清美 (一橋大学経済研究所)

　総務省の調査によると土日に父親が家事参加する時間が長い世帯ほど第二子が生まれる確率が高いことが分かっている。家族社会学会では、父親の家事参加の規定要因を探る研究があるが、少子化対策という観点で言うと、的を得た研究であったとことが分かる。本研究も夫婦のどのような諸要因が夫の家事参加を生み出すのかを研究しようとするものである。

　簡略的に述べると、夫の家事参加は、夫と妻のそれぞれの労働時間の制約の中で実現する。共働き世帯が増大し妻の労働参加が進む一方で、夫の長時間労働も進むと、夫の家事参加ははたしてどのような影響を受けるのであろうか。

　申請者の研究では、仕事をしていない(専業主婦)世帯よりも、また妻が非正規さらには正規雇用形態で働いている世帯の場合のほうが、夫の家事参加時間が長いとの知見を得ている。既存の研究を持ち出すまでもなく、長時間労働の夫ほど家事参加の時間が短い。しかし、夫の家事参加には夫の性別役割意識が絡む。革新的な性別役割意識を持つ夫のほうが伝統的な夫より家事参加することも分かっている。

　　 演繹すると妻が家事より非正規さらには正規雇用の状態に進むほど、また夫の性別役割意識が革新的なほど、また夫の労働時間が短い場合ほど、彼の家事時間は長くなる。

　図1は妻が正規雇用、、図2は妻が非正規雇用の場合である。夫の意識をX軸にとり、夫の家事参加時間をY軸にとる。さらには夫の労働時間を4つのランク別に分けてている。果たして演繹的な推論どおりに、夫の労働時間が短い夫ほど家事時間が長い。家事時間は妻が正規雇用場合のほうが非正規雇用場合よりも、また夫の意識が伝統的よりも革新的なほうが時間数が長い。

　図1、図2は線形的な変数の効果を如実に示している。しかし、図3(妻が無職の場合)は変数間に交互作用が見られる。夫の労働時間が11時間以上の革新的な夫の家事時間は伝統的なそれよりも時間が短いという興味深い結果を示している。

　本研究の目的は(1)藤原が2018年に実施した「島根県の子育て期の女性の仕事と生活調査」(「島根調査」3,189世帯対象)で見出した上記の知見を、夫婦のイデオロギーを確認する質問をつけた独自の社会生活基本調査様式の生活時間調査により検証し、意味の理解を図ろうとするものである。また、(2) 2016年社会生活基本調査により夫の家事時間と夫の労働時間、妻の育児時間の関係の数理も見出したいと考える。さらには(3)共同研究者の白川の研究関心に沿って、家事の季節変動値を推論する研究を既存の社会生活基本調査、また独自のわれわれの生活時間調査(出来れは四季調査)を用いて展開する(後述の解説を参照のこと)。

吉原直毅 (一橋大学経済研究所)，奥島真一郎 (筑波大学)，黒瀬一弘 (東北大学)，後藤玲子 (一橋大学経済研究所)，Weikai Chen (中国人民大学)，Yongsheng Xu (ジョージア州立大学)

現代の人類が直面する最大の危機の１つは気候変動問題である。地球温暖化問題は従来、その負の外部効果の影響を受ける事になるのは「将来世代」であり、「現在世代」は直接的にはその効果に晒されない、という基本的認識であった。しかし、今や世界レベルでの気候変動的危機への対応は待ったなしのタイミングになってきた。

現代経済学においては、市場競争の下での分業の発展や技術革新とその成果導入によって、生産性の向上と経済成長による社会的厚生の改善という見解が共有されてきた。しかし、気候変動の危機への対応が待ったなしと言われる現代の時代背景の下で、19世紀より本格化した産業資本主義下の経済成長路線はもはや持続可能性(サステナビリティ)の原理と両立しえないとの情勢認識も拡がりつつある。

他方、古典派以来の経済理論は、資本蓄積・経済成長経路の到達点としての定常状態についても言及しており、著名なジョン・スチュアート・ミルの『政治経済学原理』における定常状態論やジョン・メイナード・ケインズの「我が孫たちの経済的可能性」などのように、資本蓄積の段階を終了した定常的経済においてこそ、物質的欠乏の充足活動から解放された、精神的に豊かな人生が追及される真に自由で豊かな社会が展望されてきた。実際、現代ではCOP21で採択されたパリ協定の長期目標を遵守し、気候変動危機に真摯に対応する為の十分条件として、定常的経済の可能性について検討する現実性も生じてきた。

以上の背景を踏まえ、本研究ではプラネタリー・バウンダリーを課された経済循環を均衡経路の基本的特徴とする経済システムの可能性についての、事実解明的及び規範理論的分析を行う。中心的な問いは、以下の通りである：

・パリ協定の長期目標を遵守し、自然生態系との持続可能な共存性に必要な生産・消費活動上のプラネタリー・バウンダリー的制約下で実行可能な経済システムはいかなる特徴を有するのか？

・それは資本制経済としての特徴を有する経済システムとして存続可能であるか？

・また、そのような経済システム下での技術革新の位置づけは如何なるものか？

鍾秋悦 (屏東科技大学)，望月政志 (一橋大学経済研究所)，北村行伸 (立正大学)，張宏浩 (台湾大学)

Agriculture drives the world's economies, and more than 60% of the global population relies on the survival of the sector (FAO, 2003 ; Rizov and Mathijs, 2010). The agricultural sector not only plays a crucial role in providing food but also creates job opportunities and contributes to the development of rural economies (Praburaj et al., 2018). However, the sector is vulnerable to an uncertain climate environment and economic variability (Dardonville et al., 2020). This is because of the growing competition from the industrial and commercial industry that threatens the survival of the agricultural system. Given the growing trend of the non-agricultural industry in the economy, it is important to secure agribusiness farms in a certain way. The survival of small-scale agribusiness farms in a volatile environment becomes a significant policy issue to have sustainable agriculture. Perhaps, due to the dearth of available data, the question of how to sustain small-scale agribusiness farms is still unanswered.

The survival of a business firm highly depends on its management strategy. It has been well documented that business diversification is considered as a value-adding and survival strategy of business (Meert, 2005). Diversification has attracted considerable attention in strategic management literature. Findings from these studies revealed that compared to firms with one segment of the business, firms that diversify their business attain significantly high performance (Singh, 2001; Coad, 2012) and lower business risk (Singhal and Zhu, 2013). In view of the diversification strategy, the general consensus revealed in non-farm business cannot be directly applied to agribusiness farms. Given the low market value of the primary farm products, how to add values in the agricultural value chain through business diversification strategy becomes an essential tool for a successful agribusiness farm. At the outset, agricultural primary production is constrained by weather, especially small-scale farms that lack scale efficiency in primary production. Diversifying primary production into the secondary industry such as processing foods can improve the shelf life of perishable crops. Diversification activities are also considered to be marketing strategies to capture new customers and increase direct sales of products (Ljubownikow and Ang, 2020). For example, diversifying primary production into the tertiary industry such as agri-tourism can extend distribution spectrums of agro-products. Because leisure farms and other agribusinesses provide another marketing channel for processed products, and processed products are the best forms of advertising for businesses to increase their popularity. However, as argued by the classic study of Michel and Shaked (1984) that diversification of firms into unrelated products or services yield larger risk-return than diversifying into the related business. Hence, the impact of agribusiness diversification and its survival deserves more attention but has been neglected.

This study attempts to fill the knowledge gap of the available studies to solve the unanswered questions regarding agribusiness farms' diversification and their business performance. Several research questions will be addressed in this study. First, is agribusiness diversification positively associated with the business performance and survival of the agribusiness farms? Second, what are the best practices of diversification for agribusiness farms? Third, what are the factors driving agribusiness farms to diversify their business operation?

This paper contributes to the limited discussion on the diversification of agribusiness farms on several fronts. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is among the first study that examines the effects of agribusiness diversification on business performance and the survival rate of farms. Majority of the studies focused on the determinants of farm diversification or corporate diversification rather than the effect of farm diversification on survival rate. Second, unlike the previous studies that simply report the average effect of business diversification; this study will differentiate the heterogeneity of diversification forms on agribusiness performance. This study will provide empirical evidence on the diversification effect of agribusiness farms into different businesses including farmers' markets, processing factories, farm restaurants, farm brick-and-mortar, and farm orchards.

Sébastien Lechevalier (社会科学高等研究院(EHESS))，Eric Monnet (社会科学高等研究院(EHESS))

Policymakers face a trade-off between exchange rate stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Only two of these three objectives are mutually consistent. This is the "trilemma". The predictions of the trilemma are borne out by a series of empirical studies (Obstfeld, Taylor and Shambaugh 2005, Klein and Shambaugh 2013, Obstfeld 2015, Aizenman et al 2016). These studies demonstrate that short-term interest rates (the rate on government bills or on short-term commercial paper) are more responsive to foreign rates under fixed exchange rate regime. The intuition being that any shock to the basic risk-free rate (ie: the rate on government bills or short-term paper) is passed on to other rates (this is also the intuition behind "trilemma" models, and behind much of modern macroeconomic theory indeed). One of the main contributions of this paper, is to show the historical and theoretical limits of this assumption. In Europe, Japan and in the US, the postwar period has indeed been marked by extensive government intervention in domestic credit markets. In most countries, public or semi-public banks were set up to fund specific economic sectors at below-market interest rates. Subsidized sectors generally included agriculture, housing, exports, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and high-productivity industries. More recently, the segmentation of credit markets has also been a feature of emerging economies. In these countries, "regulated" credit markets are (partially or completely) sheltered from international shocks by the state. In other words, the interest rates at which borrowers obtain credit from the state in these markets are less responsive to changes in foreign interest rates than the rates in private credit markets (ie: credit markets are "segmented"). This hypothesis had already been suggested by several economists and historians but had never been formally tested. By assembling quarterly data on credit by development banks, government agencies, public and semi-public funds in a sample of 14 countries , for the 1950-2020 period, this article explores the historical and theoretical importance of credit market segmentation for our understanding of the "trilemma".

菅幹雄 (法政大学)，大井達雄 (和歌山大学)，宮川幸三 (立正大学)，南和宏 (統計数理研究所)，田中雅行 (一橋大学経済研究所)，伊藤伸介 (中央大学)

人口，産業や住宅などの多方面の分野でデータの利活用が進み，人口減少に対する戦略や新産業の創出が期待されている。同時に交流人口の拡大による地方での観光振興の充実ももとめられている。しかしながら，観光はデータ利活用が最も遅れている分野の1つであり，エビデンスに基づいた政策決定が行われた事例は少ない。そこで，本研究では公的統計ミクロデータや民間のビックデータといった大規模データを通じて，観光市場における「証拠に基づく政策立案」（EBPM）に役立つ実証分析を行い，その結果を行政や観光産業などの利害関係者に政策提言することを目的としている。

研究成果として，観光経済学や観光統計に関する研究分野での手法の開発や分析結果の活用だけでなく，観光分野を通じて地方における統計利活用の先進事例の蓄積があげられる。また、観光経済学だけでなく，環境経済学の分野にも貢献可能である。国連統計部や世界観光機関ではサステナブル・ツーリズムにおける統計指標化に関するプロジェクトを実施しており，本研究の成果は同プロジェクトに合致するだけではなく，政府が進めているSDGsの推進にも貢献するものである。さらに, これらの実証分析は、昨今の新型コロナウイルスの流行による観光産業への影響を比較するための土台にもなり、今後の緊急時の対応指標に対する提言にも役立つものと考えている。

2020年度は想定外のコロナ禍の情勢下により、全く対面で集会を行うことができなかった。その分、研究計画を十分に遂行することが非常に難しかった。そのため、今年度からの継続研究として申請し、研究を遂行したい。