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プロジェクト研究: 2019(平成31/令和元)年度採択課題一覧

 

研究課題 日本の労働市場における人的資本と、就職、転職、昇進の関係に関する体系的な分析
研究代表者 大湾秀雄(早稲田大学)
研究分担者
神林龍(一橋大学経済研究所)、加藤隆夫(コルゲート大学)、John Tang(オーストラリア国立大学)、佐藤香織(国士舘大学)、朝井友紀子(シカゴ大学)
本研究プロジェクトでは、日本の労働市場における人的資本と、就職、転職、昇進の関係に焦点を当て、以下の4つの研究を行う。第一に、転職前後の賃金変化と産業特殊的、職種特殊的人的資本との関連を分析し、日本の労働市場における特殊的人的資本のリターンの動向を明らかにする。先行研究から産業特殊的、職種特殊的人的資本が賃金を説明することが明らかにされているが(Neal 1995, Kambourov and Manovskii 2005)、日本の労働市場を対象とした研究蓄積は少ない。第二に、税制や社会保険料等の変化が、労働需要に及ぼす影響について分析する。子育て支援策として様々な政策変更が行われているが、こういった政策が企業の女性の採用や昇進に及ぼす影響については十分な研究蓄積がない。第三に、人事経済学の観点から、昇進の可能性と夫婦の労働供給の関係を検証する。夫婦の労働供給は補完的なのか、また、夫婦の労働供給の補完性と昇進の可能性との関係はあるのかを明らかにする。第四に、歴史経済学の観点から、第二次世界大戦直後の労働市場における女性の就業に関する分析を行う。戦時中は女性の就業率の上昇がみられたが、一時的な労働需要の上昇が女性就業に及ぼした長期的な影響については未だ明らかではない。3つの関連する研究テーマを並行して検証することで、日本における人的資本と、就職、転職、昇進の関係について体系的な分析を行う。

 

研究課題 植民地下朝鮮の工業化:『工場名簿』からの接近
研究代表者 李昌玟(韓国外国語大学)
研究分担者
有本寛(一橋大学経済研究所)
本研究の目的は,20世紀前半の日本から統治下の朝鮮への工場進出が,地元資本による工業部門への参入を促進したのか,阻害したのかを,定量的に明らかにすることである.
植民地下の日本からの投資と,地元工場の参入の関係を明らかにすることは,朝鮮半島の工業化の歴史的経緯を理解するうえで重要である.さらに,工業化の極めて初期の段階での直接投資が,地元経済にいかなる影響を与えるかという,国際貿易やFDIの観点からも,本研究は貴重な事例である.
朝鮮は,日本の統治下の1930年代に急速に工業化した.韓国経済史では,この時期の工業化の性格を巡って論争が続いている.ひとつの見解は,1930年代朝鮮の工業化が,日本の資本を利しただけで,朝鮮の地元経済社会に対しては収奪的であったという見方である.その根拠となっているのは,当時の工業化が,軍需産業と密接に結びついた,内地からの積極的な企業・工場の進出や投資に主導されていたことである.もう一方の見解は,この時期の工業化が,朝鮮の地元経済にも裨益したというものである.事実,工場数でみる限り,朝鮮資本の工場数は日本資本のそれを上回っており,地元経済をある程度は巻き込んだ工業化であったともいえる.
この議論は,韓国経済史に留まらず,国際貿易分野における海外直接投資(FDI)の研究とも関連している.FDIが地元資本による参入や企業の成長を促進するのか,阻害するのか,という論点である.これについて,理論的にも実証的に多数の研究が蓄積されている.技術移転や需要創出など正の外部性がある一方で,高い生産性や資本を誇る海外資本との競争による淘汰(クラウド・アウト)など負の外部性も指摘されている.
本研究の特色は,第1に,日本統治下の朝鮮半島の工業化について,新たなミクロデータを使った知見を提示することである.既存研究は,企業や産業レベルの個別事例に基づいた定性的な情報,もしくは,全国ないし産業レベルの集計データを使って,内地からの投資と地元経済の関係を論じてきた.本研究は,工場レベルのデータから,地域*産業*年のパネルデータを作成し,より精緻なエビデンスを提示する.
第2に,本研究は,台湾や「満州」など,他の日本統治下の植民地にも応用ができる.本研究が依拠する『朝鮮工場名簿』と同様の工場名簿は,日本国内(『工場通覧』等)のほか,台湾や「満州」でも作成されており,「国際比較可能な歴史・産業統計の作成」が可能である.本研究で,データセットの作成や分析方法を確立することで,今後,他地域にも研究対象を広げ,比較が可能となる.これによって,植民地期の日本からの投資が,朝鮮,台湾,「満州」の工業化や経済発展に与えた影響について新たな知見を示すことができる.

 

研究課題 Reconsidering the boundary between self-employment and wage work: a comparison between Japan and France
研究代表者 Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann(Paris School of Economics )
研究分担者
森口千晶(一橋大学経済研究所)、Jérôme Bourdieu(Institut national de la recherche agronomique)、Lionel Kesztenbaum(Institut National d'Études Démographiques)、Gilles Postel-Vinay(Paris School of Economics)
Salaried work, in the form of an indefinite-term labor contract between an employer and an employee, the latter earning monthly wages and pension entitlements, is the dominant type of employment in today's developed economies. However it was not always the case. In particular, people could have less straightforward careers, for instance switching between independent and wage-earning jobs in the course of their life. Moreover, there were disparities even among those living out of a wage: a few wage earners, mostly in the modern sector, worked on indefinite-term contracts; others, mostly in rural areas, held daily or seasonal contracts. Meanwhile, self-employment also covered a broad variety of conditions, from owners of land or factory to small shopkeepers.
Despite the significance of salaried work today, labor status are still diverse and increasingly so: in France, self-employment is soaring in skilled services; in Japan, in the last thirty years, women switched from self-employment to "non-standard" wage jobs ("bad jobs" that could be either on fixed- or indefinite-term contracts).
This project explores the transitions between self-employment and wage workers in the long run and its economic and social impact. Two settings will be presented, discussed and compared: contemporaneous Japan and France in the 19th and 20th centuries.

 

研究課題 The effect of importing, exporting, and foreign direct investment on the demand for skills and occupations and its implications on young and old workers as well as regular and non-regular jobs.
研究代表者 笠原博幸(ブリティッシュコロンビア大学)
研究分担者
田中聡史(University of Queensland)、鈴木通雄(東北大学)、牧岡亮((独)経済産業研究所)
How does globalization and trade affect different types of workers and firms differently? The distribution effect of globalization is a hotly debated issue. For example, in the United States, an influential work by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013) ``The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States'' presents the evidence that rising Chinese import competition caused higher unemployment and reduced wages in local labor markets where import-competing manufacturing industries (such as steel industries) are the dominant industries, and the impact is especially large among employment in routine occupations. Recent evidence from employer-employee matched data in Germany suggests the effect of globalization is heterogenous across workers; Dauth, Findeisen, and Suedekum (2018) provide evidence that high skilled workers benefit from export opportunities by actively switching employers that belong to exporting industries while the low-skilled workers are more negatively affected by import competition.
Due to the data constraint, however, there exists a limited amount of studies on how firm-level export and import, and offshoring activities affect the demand for different types of occupations and different skill-levels of workers in Japan. In this project, we plan to connect Basic Survey of Japanese Structure and Activities, Census of Manufacture, Basic Survey on Wage Structure, and Survey on Employment Trends and, using the employer-employee matched data set, we analyze the impact of firm-level exports and imports on the aggregate demand for different occupations as well as for collage vs. highschool educated workers in Japan and how the impact depends on within-firm age distribution and the share of regular vs. non-regular jobs. By doing so, we quantify the extent to which the aggregate changes in occupation distribution and in the share of college educated workers are associated with the changes in overall changes in trade status across Japanese firms and derive the implications of globalization on young vs. old workers as well as regular vs. non-regular jobs.

 

研究課題 公⽴⾼等学校入試選抜の学区撤廃が⾼校生の進学⾏動に与えた影響の研究
研究代表者 小川亮(大阪市立大学)
研究分担者
岡澤亮介(大阪市立大学)、佐野晋平(千葉大学)、宇南山卓(一橋大学経済研究所)
教育に関する規制緩和の一環として、「地方教育行政の組織及び運営に関する法律」(地教行法)の第50条が2002年1月に削除されて以降、各都道府県で公立高等学校入試選抜における通学区域による出願制限が緩和されてきた。背景として、教育行政における地方分権化や規制改革が教育の質を高めるという狙いがある。質の向上は、学校間競争とセレクション(生徒の特性にあった学校選択)によってもたらされると考えられるが、そのエビデンスは必ずしも多くない。
日本において学校選択の自由化が教育の質に与える因果効果に踏み込んだ実証分析は多くない。既存研究では、地域が限定された分析や、地教行法の第50条削除以前の分析にとどまっている。地教行法の第50条削除の影響は全国の高等学校におよぶため、そのインパクトの評価は不可欠である。
本研究の目的は、2002年以降の高等学校入試選抜における通学区域による出願制限の撤廃が、高校生の進路選択に与えた影響について実証的に明らかにすることにある。とりわけ、教育の質の指標として大学進学率に着目し、都道府県間で学区撤廃のタイミングにラグがあることを利用した分析を行うことで、学区撤廃のインパクトを評価する。
本研究課題は、学校選択の自由化がもたらす教育の質への影響評価という、教育政策上の含意を持つ。

 

研究課題 フィリピン長期経済統計における労働力と人口
研究代表者 千葉芳広(北海道医療大学)
研究分担者
尾高煌之助(一橋大学)、斎藤修(一橋大学)、永野善子(神奈川大学)、神門善久(明治学院大学)、江藤圭也(玉川大学)
この研究は、十九世紀末から二〇世紀半ばまでのフィリビンの労働力および人口の推計を目的とする。フィリピンの国内支出、金融・物価、教育、産業別のGDPの長期的趨勢と併せて考察することで、フィリピンの労働力および人口動態の変化の意義が明らかとなる。
フィリピンの労働力および人口の統計は、他のアジア諸国と比較して著しい特徴を有してきた。1970年代以降の海外出稼ぎ労働者数の増加とならび、近年における特殊合計出生率の高さおよび世帯構成人数の多さが持続してきたことがそれである。フィリピン人の生活水準を反映する特徴は、家計支出、物価、教育、産業の趨勢とあわせて考察することで理解することが可能となる。
フィリピンは、消費主導型経済発展を遂げ、他の東アジア諸国とは異なる経済発展の形態を辿ってきている。その理由と結果を経済学的に解明する鍵となるのは、海外送金増加とサービス業偏重の産業構成の背景にある労働力とその他の諸要因が絡んで結果する人口動態である。長期に及ぶフィリピンの労働力および人口統計を他の経済統計と併せて整備することは、フィリピン人の生活水準を把握することに貢献するのみでなく、フィリピンの経済発展の全体像を数量的に俯瞰することを可能にする。
とりわけ出生率を関連した人口動態の解明には、地域研究ベースで、医療や福祉の在り方と併せて考察する必要があるが、本研究は、そうした期待に応えるための基礎づくりとして高い意義を有するものである。

 

研究課題 大規模小売店の閉店が地域内購買活動に与える影響に関する実証分析
研究代表者 宮内悠平(スタンフォード大学)
研究分担者
武田航平(ロンドン・スクール・オブ・エコノミクス)
【研究目的】
本研究は、大規模小売店の閉店が消費者の移動・消費行動パターンに与える影響、およびそれらを通じて近隣の他の小売店の売り上げに与える影響を実証的に解明することを目的とする。
大規模小売店(大規模スーパーマーケット、ショッピングモール、百貨店)の進出、あるいは退出が地元商店街の集客、売り上げに与える影響は、1998年に施行された大規模小売店立地法に代表されるように、都市・地域経済政策の最重要な論点として古くより多くの議論がなされている。理論上は、大規模小売店の進出は、競争を通じて地元商店街から既存の消費者を奪うという負の効果と、新たな消費者をその地域に呼び込むという正の外部性が混在するため(Matsuyama 1995)、どのような状況でどちらの効果が上回るかに関しては、産業や実際の立地パターンを加味した厳密な実証研究が求められる。しかしながら、①大規模小売店の進出・閉鎖の消費者需要を介した内生性への対処(大型小売店が立地する地域では、周辺の店の売り上げも高い可能性がある)、②実際に消費者がどのような消費行動を行っているかというデータの欠如、という二つの課題により研究が進んでいない。
本研究では、上記二点の形を解決する形で、大規模小売店の閉店が近隣地域の消費活動に与える影響を分析する。第一に、大規模小売店の閉店の内生性に対処するために、我々は2013年施行の耐震改修促進法の改正に付随する大型小売店の退店を自然実験として用いる。下記に詳述するように、本政策変更は、建物の耐震改修費用を通じ、消費需要や近隣地域の小売店の売り上げとは独立な理由により大規模小売店の退店をもたらしたと考えられるため、大規模小売店の退店の因果関係を適切に分析することができる。第二に、消費者の消費移動行動をデータで把握するために、ゼンリンデータコム社と共同し、スマートフォンのアプリから収集された人口流動データ(日本人口の1%程度をカバー)を用いる。これに経済センサス・商業統計に基づく売り上げデータを組み合わせることにより、大型小売店の退店がどのように消費者の移動行動を変え、どのような近隣店舗に正または負の影響を与えたかを分析する。
【学術的特色】
上述のように、都市における小売業の空間的競争は、都市経済学と産業組織論において古くより理論的に分析されている分野であるが、上記二点の課題により実証的な研究は後れを取っている。本研究の特色は、これらの課題を①制度変更を利用した厳密な因果関係に留意し、②スマートフォンから得られる大規模・高頻度の流動人口のデータ(ビッグデータ)を用いて解決することにある。よって、本研究の実証研究結果、およびそれに付随する方法論的貢献は、日本という文脈を超えて、学術的な貢献を与えると期待される。

 

研究課題 Temporal structures of gender inequalities in Japan
研究代表者 Man-Yee Kan(University of Oxford)
研究分担者
Ekaterina Hertog(University of Oxford)、Kamila Kolpashnikova(University of Oxford)、白川清美((独)統計センター)、千葉亮太((独)統計センター)、田中雅行(一橋大学経済研究所)、伊藤孝之(一橋大学経済研究所)、中山史野(一橋大学経済研究所)
The Surveys on Time Use and Leisure Activities are one of the highest quality and longest running set of time use data sources documenting time use available in the developed world. Research we carried out using these surveys in collaboration with Prof Shirakawa and Dr. Chiba from Hitotsubashi University has enabled us to analyze gender differences in the participating types and social contexts of domestic work and care work in Japan over time. We presented our results at the International Association of Time Use Research annual meeting in October 2018 and published one of our papers as part of the Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. We are now preparing to submit our papers to international and Japanese journals.
During the next year we aim to expand our research and collaboration further and to analyze the association between age and time use trends, as well as time use in multigenerational households, throwing light on the social trends associated with the rapid aging Japan in experiencing. We will also analyse trends in the working schedules in Japan, with a view to understand the impacts of work hours and work schedules on the domestic division of labour. Finally, we plan to broaden the scope of our comparative work and over the next year we aim to convert STULA surveys into Multinational Time Use Study format developed at the University of Oxford and do large scale comparative work. The project core aims are as follows:
1. Analysing gendered patterns in age and time use, with a particular attention to time use depending on patterns of coresidency in multigenerational households.
2. Converting all the waves of the STULA survey into MTUS format and including Japan into broad comparative studies of time use trends alongside other OECD countries.
3. Analysing changes in the patterns of workdays over the years, and assess the impacts of work schedules on the domestic division of labour.
4. Examining policy implications of our findings and publish policy papers.

 

研究課題 民間給与実態調査の統計的性質の把握と障がい者の賃金構造の分析
研究代表者 三好向洋(愛知学院大学)
研究分担者
宇南山卓(一橋大学経済研究所)、勇上和史(神戸大学)、佐野晋平(千葉大学)、神林龍(一橋大学経済研究所)、林正義(東京大学)、別所俊一郎(東京大学)
本研究の目的は、第一に民間給与実態調査の統計的特徴を賃金構造基本調査と比較すること、第二に障がい者控除利用の情報を用いることで障がい者の賃金構造および障がい者をもつ家計の実態を明らかにすることである。
2007年の統計法の改正以来政府統計の個票データの利用が進められてきたが、民間給与実態調査の個票データは他の研究者も含めこれまで利用されていない。賃金に関する事業所側に対する調査としては、賃金構造基本統計調査が存在しているが、調査対象や調査項目で類似点と相違点がある。統計間の比較を通して、民間給与実態調査の統計的性質を明らかにすることは勤労所得に関する新たな個票データとしての利用可能性を明らかにできる。
民間給与実態調査は租税収入、租税負担等を把握することを目的としているため、給与に対する控除を詳細に調査している。そのうち他の統計調査にみられない特徴として、本人だけではなく家族障害者控除利用の有無が把握できる点である。控除利用の有無での賃金プロファイルを比較することを通して、障害者法定雇用率と障害者の賃金構造の関係や障害者を家族に持つものの負担を明らかにすることができる。

 

研究課題 近世日本農村の資産モビリティ:安達郡仁井田村の事例, 1720-1880
研究代表者 黒須里美(麗澤大学)
研究分担者
有本寛(一橋大学経済研究所)
本研究の目的は,近世日本農村の資産の不平等とその動態,および要因を,世帯レベルの長期データから明らかにすることである.Thomas Pikettyらの研究によって,富の格差や所得分配の歴史的推移に関する研究水準は飛躍的に向上した.今後の研究の展望として,よりミクロなデータを使って実態の理解を深めていくという課題が残されている.
前近代の資産の分布や不平等については,西欧や東アジアなどを中心に,教区簿冊と土地・課税台帳の統合型データや戸籍など世帯型データを利用したミクロデータの構築とともに、国際的な比較分析がスタートしている.スウェーデンと中国では長期継続するミクロデータを活用し、さらに時系列的また多世代間の社会移動の分析も試みられている.
本研究は,こうした研究潮流に貢献すべく,近世日本の安達郡仁井田村の人別改帳(1720-1870年分)に記載された持高(農地の所持高)のデータを体系的に整理し,分析することで,150年に渡る資産移転の動態やその理由,そして資源配分メカニズムとしての土地市場と行政的再配分(割地・割替,上地・主付)の効率性を検討し,国際比較に資する情報を提供する.
本研究の特色は,第1に,ジニ係数等,資産の不平等度の基礎的事実を提供することで,国際比較のための素材を提供する.
第2に,資産「所持」に加えて,資産「利用」の不平等度も明らかにする.本研究のデータには農地貸借の情報も含まれることから,貸借によって,「所持」の不平等がどの程度緩和されていたかが判明する.これが重要なのは,仮に「所持」ベースでの不平等が顕著であったとしても,「利用」ベースで平等であったすれば,「所持」ベースの不平等の経済的含意や帰結が,見た目ほどには大きくない可能性があるからである.
第3に,資源配分メカニズムとしての土地市場の効率性を推定できる.村全体としてみたときの効率的な資産の配分とは,労働力に対して土地が過剰な世帯から土地が過少な世帯へ,資産が移転(ないし貸借)されることで,世帯間の土地・労働比率が均等化している状態である.本データは,村内の持高の移動の詳細(理由,移動元,移動先)を含んでいる.資産の移動の状況・理由のほか,移転先や移転元まで判明し,かつ各世帯の世帯員数(労働力)や家畜保有の情報も得られることから,土地過剰世帯から土地過少世帯への移転が起きていたか,またそれがどの程度効率的だったのかを推定できる.
第4に,土地市場にかわる資源配分メカニズムとして,村による行政的再配分(割地・割替,上地・主付)の効率性の検証ができる.本データでは,持高の移転の理由が注釈付けられており,土地市場を介した私的な移転(質流れ)のほか,村を介した行政的な再配分かどうかが判別できる.割地・割替は定期的に資産を村内の世帯間で再配分する制度であり,上地・主付は土地市場で借り手や移転先を見つけられなかった土地を村が預かり(上地),資産が脆弱な世帯に再配分(主付)する制度である.これらは,土地市場を介した私的な資源配分を補完していると予想されるが,どのような場合に行政的な再配分がおこなわれるかは明らかになっていない.割地・割替などの行政的再配分は,依然として多くの発展途上経済で行われており,資源配分や資産の平等化の観点から注目されている(Zhao, 2018 "Labor and Land Allocation under Communal Tenure: Theory and Evidence from China").本研究は,この研究潮流にも貢献するものである.

 

研究課題 Ideal number of children in families. Comparative Study of Japan, Germany, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates
研究代表者 Kseniia Gatskova(Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies)
研究分担者
雲和広(一橋大学経済研究所)、Tatiana Karabchuk(United Arab Emirates University)、Hermann Dülmer(University of Cologne)
Declining birth rates became a common demographic challenge for many developed as well as developing countries across the globe. Not only more people postpone the childbearing -- which leads to a higher risk of not achieving a desired fertility -- there is also a growing proportion of those who decide to remain childless. These trends result in sub-replacement fertility levels in many regions of the world leading to a number of unresolved issues that range from a necessity to reform the pension and healthcare systems to dealing with the lack of human resources to support a sustainable economic growth.
In this study, we examine the determinants of the fertility preferences of youth using a quasi-experimental method of factorial survey. We analyze the ideal number of children in the series of hypothetical situations evaluated by students from four countries that represent different regions of the world - Japan (Asia), United Arab Emirates (Middle East), Ukraine (Eastern Europe), and Germany (Western Europe). The cross-country comparison is stipulated by the fact that the countries vary in social policies, economic development, demographic structure, cultural perceptions of gender roles, values and religion, but at the same time all of these countries experienced a similar trend of decline of fertility rates in the last decades.
Although better educated couples have generally higher incomes and, thus, they are able to provide better education, healthcare and living conditions for their children, they are known to have lower fertility rates compared to less educated individuals. In order to understand the motives that drive better educated people to have children, the research focus should be directed to studying their expectations regarding labor market participation, distribution of housework and access to childcare facilities. In our study, we use a sample of university students to explore their attitudes toward ideal number of children under different life scenarios. The results of the study will shed light on the fertility preferences of the next generation of young adults and help to anticipate the demographic challenges in each of the country in the coming years. In addition, policy relevant advice will be given on how to create the environment conductive to realization of fertility preferences of young people.
Our study will provide answers to the questions: How many children do young people want to have in each of the countries? Does the desired number of children depend on the family background? What is the motivation of having more children for men and women? How does access to public childcare facilities affect decision to have a child? How does housework division, labor market status of husband and wife and household income level affect the ideal number of children?
This study will clarify, if the decreased fertility rates in the four countries reflect the subjective fertility preferences of young adults, or sub-replacement fertility levels result from the deficiency in labor market and social policies that make it difficult to meet the expectations of young adults on their labor market status, intra-household gender equality and access to the childcare facilities.
An additional innovative component of the study is the application of the factorial survey design in a cross-country comparative setting. So far, the factorial survey design was used only for one-country case studies.

 

研究課題 Globalization, purdah and women's labor force participation in South Asia
研究代表者 Ian Coxhead(University of Wisconsin-Madison)
研究分担者 Sisira Jayasuriya(Monash University, Australia)、黒崎卓(一橋大学経済研究所)
Labor market responses to globalization (including trade liberalization, labor export and foreign investment) and trade shocks are arguably the primary proximate causes of changes in poverty, inequality and intergenerational mobility in developing countries. Women's labor market participation in particular is an important margin of adjustment to globalization-induced changes in sectoral returns to labor. The movement of women from (mostly unpaid) family and farm labor to wage work in export-oriented manufacturing and associated industries is a characteristic element of the transition from low to middle income. However, this trend is very uneven, even among countries that are similar in many respects and are undergoing comparable globalization experiences. In South Asia, Pakistan (formerly West Pakistan) has been slow to adapt, while Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan) has undergone dramatic change and rapid growth.
We propose to study specific features of female labor force participation in Pakistan, to conduct quantitative comparisons of the Pakistan and Bangladesh experiences, and perhaps to expand the scope of our study to other comparable South Asian economies.
Pakistan and Bangladesh are economies in transition from low-income to lower middle-income, with abundant low-skilled labor but few other productive resources and high concentrations of poverty. They share the distinctive feature that the rate of women's participation in paid employment or work outside the home is very low by global standards. This is largely due to the widely practiced cultural institution known as purdah, which secludes and segregates women and thus limits their mobility as well as their participation in the wage labor market. The practice of purdah is neither universal nor uniform, but its aggregate effect is to reduce the effective size of the non-farm labor force and to dampen labor supply response to latent job growth associated, for example, with foreign investment. This in turn diminishes the potential for aggregate gains from participation in the global manufacturing value chain, and so impedes economic growth and poverty decline.
Despite their obvious significance, the economic consequences of this phenomenon have been little explored. Our research seeks to understand the economics of purdah (and related institutions), quantify its implications at household as well as macroeconomic scale, and explore whether and under what conditions women's labor force participation might become more responsive to economic opportunity. We proceed in several steps, according to the following objectives.
Objective 1: Using Pakistan household living standards measurement data (already in hand), we will conduct a quantitative evaluation of the propensity for Pakistani households to supply labor to the wage labor market, whether at home or (for men) abroad. This study aims to clarify and quantify the extent and implications of labor (im)mobility in Pakistan at household level.
Objective 2: Using the same data supplemented by Pakistan labor force survey data (already in hand), we will construct and test hypotheses concerning the implications of labor (im)mobility at macroeconomic level. Briefly, our primary hypothesis is that Pakistan's notable lack of success in attracting investment in labor-intensive manufacturing is due in part to limitations on the mobility of its female workers, and the spillover effects of this on the allocation of men's labor time.
Objective 3: We will compare the Pakistan and Bangladesh experiences with labor-intensive manufacturing growth. Bangladesh shares many historical, cultural and religious characteristics with Pakistan and yet has enjoyed very notable success in building an export-oriented manufacturing sector with high levels of female wage labor participation. We will acquire Bangladesh household and labor force data to match the Pakistan data, and use these to test whether the differences can be explained simply by differences in existing practices, or whether there is a positive dynamic between the creation of employment opportunities and changes in the elasticities of women's labor force participation and mobility. The latter conjecture, if supported, may convey some important policy implications for Pakistan's efforts to stimulate industrial growth.
Finally, and if the preceding work is successful, we will consider expanding the scope to comparable economies such as India and Sri Lanka, where similar institutional constraints (albeit in different forms) also apply, but where different types of economic shock have been experienced.

 

研究課題 産業別労働生産性の長期推計と国際比較
研究代表者 攝津斉彦(武蔵大学)
研究分担者
斎藤修(一橋大学)、Leigh Shaw-Taylor(ケンブリッジ大学)、山本千映(大阪大学)
アンガス・マディソンと、それを引き継いだマディソン・プロジェクトの研究に代表されるように、長期をカバーするGDPおよび人口1人あたりGDPの推計値は、各国で整備されつつある。GDPの推計方法は、資料の残存状況などによって左右されるものの、第一次産業および第二次産業については、生産データを基礎資料として推計される場合が多く、サービス産業については、所得アプローチやより簡便な方法、例えば、第二次産業とパラレルに動くというかなり強い仮定を用いた推計など、が用いられることもある。いずれにせよ、さまざまな手法にもとづいて推計された人口1人あたりGDPは、各国の経済成長の過程を把握する上で、必要不可欠なものとなっている。
その一方で、長期的な経済発展の過程を別の角度から把握する試みとして、研究分担者でもあるLeigh Shaw-Taylerと斎藤修を中心に、長期間をカバーする世界各国の職業別労働力を推計するInternational Network for the Comparative History of Occupational Structure Project (INCHOS project)が組織され、その成果が近く書籍として公開されようとしている。研究代表者もかかわったこのプロジェクトの推計値を用いることで、各国の産業構造変化がどのように生じたのか、古くから言われるような、いわゆるペティ・クラークの法則が成立するのかどうか等、さまざまな観点から国際比較が試みられている。
本研究は、これら二つの推計値を使って、各国の産業別労働生産性の長期的変化(特に近世から近代にかけての変化)を計測することを目的とする。労働生産性という指標を用いることで、通常は人口1人あたりGDPの変化を媒介として語られる各国の経済成長過程を、より詳細に比較・分析することが可能となる。さらに、労働生産性を算出することによって、産業別のGDPと労働力の間に大きな齟齬が生じないかどうかを確認し、集計された産業別GDPや人口1人あたりGDPを見るだけではわからない推計値の堅牢性をチェックすることも可能である。

 

研究課題 地域情報を考慮した人口減少下の税・社会保障制度と家計行動の関係についての実証研究
研究代表者 伊藤伸介(中央大学)
研究分担者
宇南山卓(一橋大学経済研究所)、林田実(北九州市立大学)、児玉直美(日本大学)、出島敬久(上智大学)、佐藤慶一(専修大学)、村田磨理子((公財)統計情報研究開発センター)、松浦広明(松蔭大学)、宮崎毅(九州大学)
人口動態が地域ごとに異なることによって,地域における財政のあり方や持続可能性の格差が拡大している。こうした状況で,税制・社会保障制度が家計行動と地域経済の成長などにどのような差異をもたらすかを,政府統計ミクロデータを用いて究明することが本研究の目的である。
具体的には,地方税制,健康保険制度,公的年金制度といった税・社会保障制度が,家計の就業行動,消費・貯蓄・資産選択,公衆衛生に与える影響を定量的に把握することを目指している。このまま大都市圏への地方からの流出が進むと地域の財政状況が悪化することによって,地方の公共財の供給の縮小や公衆衛生の悪化が予想される。そこで,地域間の人口移動と就業選択や公衆衛生との関係,さらには地方財政への持続可能性の影響を動態的に把握するためのミクロシミュレーションによるアプローチの可能性も研究の対象とする。こうした点で,本研究において詳細な地域情報を含んだ政府統計ミクロデータを用いて実証分析することの意義がある。
また,財政状況が悪化した地域から財政状況がより良好な地域への人口移動が加速することによって,地方財政の格差が拡大する可能性がある。そこで,本研究では,地域情報を考慮した上で,個人の就業行動,家計の消費・貯蓄・資産選択と健康状態の連関について, 機械学習やシミュレーションの手法等を用いながら,定量的な政策評価を行う。以上の推定においては,モデル選択や変数選択に関する探索的な実証研究の可能性も探りながら, 標準的な推定手法と機械学習による予測の比較・検討を行う。さらに地域間移動についてミクロシミュレーション分析を行う。それらによって,現代的な計量経済手法に基づく政策評価と経済予測の可能性を追究することが本研究の特色である。

 

研究課題 Information Frictions in Firm-to-Firm Trade: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial in Japan
研究代表者 宮川大介(一橋大学)
研究分担者
宮内悠平(Stanford University)、Jie Bai(Harvard University)
Firm-to-firm trade is important for firm production and hence aggregate economy (e.g., Acemoglu et al, 2012). Reflecting its importance, there is a recent growing literature to identify how firm-to-firm trade is formed endogenously, and how such endogenous firm-to-firm trade formation have aggregate consequences (Bernard and Moxnes, 2017).
In a different literature, information friction is pointed out to be an important source of frictions in trade, both within and across countries. The most convincing set of evidence we have studies the introduction of new information technology (e.g., cell phones), and study how the trade patterns change (Jensen, 2007; Aker, 2010; Allen, 2014; Jensen & Miller, 2017; Steinwender, 2018). These types of analysis, however, does not have exogenous variation (or even data) of the content of information transmitted. As a result, these analyses often remain silent about the underlying mechanism of what kind of information frictions exist, matter, and if so, why.
In this project, we tackle this question by randomly providing information about (potential) trading partners. We study how such information will lead to more trades, as well as matching with better trading partners. We also randomize the content of the information to be provided. This feature enables us to understand what type of information frictions exist and why.

 

研究課題 日本の再生可能エネルギー政策と農業経営の持続可能性に関する実証分析:トレードオフ関係と相乗効果の検証
研究代表者 鍾秋悦(屏東科技大学)
研究分担者
北村行伸(一橋大学経済研究所)、張宏浩(台湾大学)、草処基(東京農工大学)、丸健(西武文理大学)、望月政志(一橋大学経済研究所)
The rising energy demand has caused a surge in electricity price and subsequently boosted the market shares of renewable energy in world energy sector. Solar power, wind energy, hydropower, and biomass power are considered to be low-carbon alternative energy sources. This green energy is promisingly projected to provide 30% of total energy demand in 2023 (IEA, 2019). Amid the global consensus on the dual effects of green energy on economic and environmental sustainability, green energy policy is integrated into nation's development agenda worldwide. Japan has been determined to keep up the trend, particularly after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Japanese government has enacted a premium Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system for renewables since 2012 and soon afterword implemented the 「Act on the Promotion of Renewable Energy Electric Power Generation Harmonized with Sound Development of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries」in 2014. Unsurprisingly, farmland was dramatically transformed to solar and wind parks; the converted land areas grew from 2.4 ha in 2011 to 1,585 ha in 2015. This rapid change is worth further investigation but remains unsolved.
The agricultural population in Japan is aging and resulting in abandoned farmland. Utilizing abandoned farmland by adopting energy facilities is believed to be a synergy between energy and the agriculture sectors. However, a moral hazard behavior occurs in the case in point due to significant disparity in the market profitability between energy generation and farm production. The flow of resources from an unprofitable sector to a lucrative one is inevitable but can endanger national food security. Thus, an empirical study of comprehending the interaction between the energy policy and agricultural production is desperately needed. To fill in this missing literature, the objective of this study is threefold. First, this study aims to understand the current usage of agribusinesses on facilities of green power. Given the emerging issues related to the interaction between energy and farm production, a better understanding of the installation of green electricity in agribusinesses is important for policy planning. Second, we investigate the factors associated with agricultural enterprises' choices in the adoption of green energy facilities. In particular, we are interested in the role of business characteristics of the agribusinesses, geographic heterogeneity, and government programs playing in the adoption of agribusinesses' energy facilities. The third objective of this study is to identify whether the use of green energy facilities impacts the profitability of the agribusinesses. If the policy goal of the government is to achieve the sustainability of environment quality and economic growth, findings of this study can be used to design a more effective policy scheme.
To achieve the three aforementioned objectives, this study has to utilize the confidential data of the panel surveys of agricultural industrialization (6次産業化総合調査) from 2010 to 2016 (平成22年-28年). In which, the detailed information on green energy capacities on firm level and firms' characteristics are provided. Using longitudinal datasets, we can capture the structural changes in agribusiness operation ex post the implementation of green energy policy. Thus, the panel data with company code are crucial for our analysis. In addition to this confidential data, we will collect and incorporate local socio and economic information into analysis. In doing so, the determinants of energy facility adoption in individual agribusinesses can be clarified.

 

研究課題 Information Revolution and Political Revolution: An Empirical Investigation of Forbidden Books as a Determinant of the French Revolution
研究代表者 佐々木優(早稲田大学)
研究分担者
森口千晶(一橋大学経済研究所)
Overview
The goal of this research project is to empirically investigate the causal link between information revolution and political revolution by studying the impact of the spread of forbidden books on the onset of the French Revolution. Existing research typically focuses on post-World War II cases about how dictators lose the capacity to control political information and lose power. In this project, I use the French Revolution as the first case of this linkage and draw statistical evidence by building a new data set comprised primarily of untapped data on forbidden publications and the occurrence of revolutionary demonstrations. My research yields scholarly and policy implications for why some authoritarian states last longer than others.

Academic features
Control of political information is critical to understand authoritarian longevity and the transition to democracy. Autocratic leaders typically keep the cost of access to information high for average citizens, especially the types of political information that may have adverse consequences to the regime. Many modern-day autocracies hold elections to generate legitimacy, so the unfettered ac- cess to political information may breed uncertainty in their next election. George Orwell's 1984 vividly portrays this point, by illustrating how autocrats maintain the regime through the strict control of information. Scholarly works on contemporary dictatorships, notably China and Rus- sia, also highlight how they take advantage of the internet to minimize uprisings and social unrest (Beissinger 2002; King, Pan, and Roberts 2013; Kuran 1991, 1998).
It is the wave of political revolutions known as the "Arab Spring" of 2011 when scholars begin to pay greater attention to the role of "information revolution" as a cause of political revolution. The information revolution refers to the wide availability of a technology that dramatically reduces the cost of access to information and in which users spread new ideas, in this case how the govern- ment ought to be run. In the Arab Spring, the democratic movements toppled a few longstanding dictatorial regimes in North Africa. Much of the popular media was fixated on how social media services such as Twitter and Facebook allowed the politically powerless citizens not just to bypass government regulation and spread anti-regime information but also to connect with like-minded people and stage large-scale, sustained demonstrations.
I argue that it is not the Arab Spring of 2011 but the French Revolution of 1789 that is the first information revolution precipitating political revolution. The literature on the French Revolu- tion is vast, but one strand of the historical literature underscores the role of "forbidden books" in instigating the revolutionary movements (Darnton 1995b). It indicates that a vibrant market of En- lightenment publications existed in the late eighteenth century, in which scholars like Rousseau and Voltaire wrote on constitutions and democracy. The ancien régime deemed the idea of democracy subversive and suppressed the market. Yet these banned books kept being circulated in the illicit market and spread the idea of democracy through the printing press. This research yields an influ- ential, albeit untested, hypothesis that the market of forbidden books constituted an information revolution and a major determinant of the French Revolution. Scholarly works that contain these banned publications are publicly available but much has yet to be digitized. In my project, I exploit this untapped database and provide statistical evidence on the link between these publications and individuals' motive to participate in the revolutionary movements.

Contributions and broader significance
My main contribution is to provide historical evidence on the role of information in understanding the causes of revolution. The evidence includes the date, location, and volume of banned publi- cations and their impact on the occurrence of revolutionary demonstrations as my outcome. To explain the mechanism, I focus on the availability of the printing press that helped bypass the gov- ernment heavy-handedness. Just as the radio and the smartphones appear to drive revolutions in modern times, so print technology led the information revolution in premodern times (Dittmar 2011; Rubin 2014). I draw on cultural history to identify the date and location of the press and have already digitized this data.
My research yields two broader implications for social science. First, it advances the scholarly understanding of one of the perennial puzzles in political science about why some contemporary dictatorships last longer than others. My project highlights how the spread of information matters to the onset of political revolution. The second and even wider implication is to explore the freedom of speech as an institution. My research explores a case of the political conflict over the freedom of speech in late-eighteenth-century France that led to the banning of certain books. The evidence I draw from this study describe the process in which information technology, namely the printing press, plays a role in people's effort to institutionalize the freedom.

 

研究課題 Elderly's Employment Situation in China, Japan, and Singapore: Evidence from the Longitudinal Panel Surveys
研究代表者 Jessica Ya Sun(華中科技大学)
研究分担者
馬欣欣(富山大学)、臼井恵美子(一橋大学経済研究所)
We investigate how the Japanese, Chinese, and Singaporean elderly men (aged 60-74) adjust their workforce attachment after beginning to receive public pension benefits. The analysis is based on the prior paper, Usui, Shimizutani, and Oshio (2016).
Utilizing the Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (JSTAR), Usui, Simizutani, and Oshio (2016) finds that men who were employees at age 54 gradually move to part-time work or retire after beginning to receive pension benefits; those who continue working are more likely to be underemployed. Men self-employed at age 54, however, neither retire nor reduce their working hours even after beginning to receive pension benefits; these men are more likely to be overemployed. Usui et al. (2016) also find that U.S. men who continue working after starting to receive Social Security benefits are unlikely to be either overemployed or underemployed. Therefore, unlike U.S. men, Japanese men are not choosing the optimal pensionable age and labor hours to maximize their intertemporal utility.
The objective of this study is to examine whether China and Singaporean men are also unable to choose optimal pensionable age and labor market hours to maximize their intertemporal utility as the Japanese men. The reason why we find such results in Japan is that there are mandatory retirement arrangements in Japan whereas the US does not have. Furthermore, there are differences in the social security systems between Japan and the US. We will apply the analysis used in Usui et al. (2016) to the situations in China and Singapore. We will examine whether and how the results from China and Singapore differ, while focusing on the differences in labor market institutions (mandatory retirement) and pension systems between China, Singapore and Japan.

 

研究課題 日本における税制改革と社会保障改革の研究:ミクロデータを用いた実証分析とシミュレーション分析
研究代表者 宮崎毅(九州大学)
研究分担者
北村行伸(一橋大学経済研究所)、大野太郎(信州大学)、坂本和靖(群馬大学)、森田(山本) 陽子(名古屋市立大学)
世界各国において、所得格差拡大に関する研究が数多く存在する。本研究では、公的統計などを活用しながら、1980年代以降の日本における税制・社会保障制度の所得再分配効果や所得格差拡大の要因について検証を行う。
第1に、所得税に関する地域別の所得再分配効果の相違について、都市と地方における影響の相違に着目しながら、詳しく分析する。現在、所得格差が大きな課題となっている日本について、地域間、特に地方と都市部で税制による所得再分配政策がどのような影響を与えたのかの研究は実務上重要な研究である。
第2に、実施予定および検討中の所得税改革が家計の税負担や所得再分配効果に与える影響についてマイクロ・シミュレーションを用いて考察する。近年の所得税改革では多様な働き方への対応と所得再分配機能の回復を図るため、基礎控除や配偶者(特別)控除の拡充、給与所得控除や公的年金等控除の縮小など、諸控除の見直しが行われた。また、現行の所得控除方式に代えて、税額控除方式や逓減・消失型の所得控除方式の導入も検討されている。これらの改革が税制の再分配効果に及ぼす影響を定量的に示すことは実施予定の政策を評価するとともに今後の改革指針を提示し、昨今期待されているEvidence-Based Policy Making(EBPM)に貢献できる。
第3に、遺産相続の動向とその背景・寄与についても考察する。また、所得税改革や相続税改革が消費・貯蓄・遺産相続に与える影響についても研究が蓄積されているが、高齢化が進む日本において遺産贈与の研究は重要な意義がある。
第4に、所得格差拡大の要因に関する視点として、世帯内の所得源泉別の所得格差・および消費不平等に関する研究を行う。1990年代以降、介護・育児休業制度をはじめとして、女性の就労活動を促すためのワーク・ライフ・バランス施策や社会保障制度改革が進められており、これに伴う女性の就業状況の変化がもたらす世帯間および世帯内の所得格差への影響について確認することは、女性の社会進出が進む現在において重要な研究である。
第5に、財政再建が所得不平等に与える影響に関する研究を行う。日本は世界に類を見ないほどの累積債務を抱えている。そのため、今後財政再建が進められれば可処分所得の不平等が進行する可能性があり、財政状況と所得不平等の関係性に関する研究は学術のみならず実際上も重要な研究課題である。
第6に、家計の生活水準の推移を消費量、消費バスケットの比率変化などを通して分析する。不平等や貧困の研究の基礎となる生活水準の計測は経済政策上も重要な情報となり、その推移を通して政策評価を行う。

 

研究課題 東アジアにおける家計の金融経済行動の国際比較
研究代表者 小野有人(中央大学)
研究分担者
王新梅(中国社会科学院)、Sang-Wook Cho(University of New South Wales)、Peng Zhan(南京財経大学)、祝迫得夫(一橋大学経済研究所)、臼井恵美子(一橋大学経済研究所)、堀雅博(一橋大学)
本研究プロジェクトの主要な目的は3つある。第一に東アジア諸国、具体的には日本・中国・韓国の三カ国の家計の金融経済行動(=Household Finance; 貯蓄・借入・資産選択・持ち家保有・年金・就業行動等)に関する国際比較分析を行い、住宅ローン、年金・社会保障制度、定年制といった社会経済制度における差異が、各国の家計の行動にどのような影響を与えているかを検証することである。
第二に、そのような国際比較研究を行うための包括的なミクロデータセットの構築を行う。欧米、特に欧州に関しては、Guiso, Haliassos, Jappelli (2002)に始まり、その後もAngelini, Brugiavini, Weber (2014)、Badarinza, Campbell, Ramadorai (2016)といった、優れたHousehold Financeに関する国際比較研究が存在する。しかしアジア諸国でそのような研究を行うためには、国をまたいだ形で比較可能なデータセットが存在しないことが大きな障害となっている。そのためには、データそのものの比較可能性に関する検討が重要な作業であることは間違いないが、それをとりまく社会経済制度の国ごとの違いに関する、相互理解を深めることも必要となる。欧州のHousehold Financeの研究では、ヨーロッパ中央銀行のHousehold Finance and Consumption Network やOxford大学のInitiative for International Comparative Household Financeが、各国のデータ収集や国際コンファレンスの開催で、共同研究のハブの役割を果たしている。したがって本研究プロジェクトの第三の目的は、東アジアにおけるそのようなHousehold Finance研究のネットワークの形成であり、国際共同研究のための拠点を日本に確立することである。
さらに長期的には、日本の急速な高齢化の経験から、この地域の他の国々の将来への政策的含意や教訓を導き出すことを目指している。キャッチアップ型の急速な経済発展を遂げた国が、成長率・生産性上昇の減速と時期を同じくして、少子高齢化に直面しているという点において、現在の日本の問題は、韓国・中国をはじめとする東アジア諸国が近い将来に直面する問題を先取りしており、欧米の少子高齢化の状況とは大きく異なっている。アジア地域の家計の金融行動と、社会保障制度の金融的側面の国際比較を行うことで、共通する問題点を抽出し、それに対する政策対応の選択肢や制度設計のあり方について検討する。これらすべての研究目標を今年度中に成し遂げられるとは考えていないが、本研究プロジェクトはそのファースト・ステップと位置づけられる。

 

研究課題 Firms' heterogeneity and education wage premia
研究代表者 Cristiano Perugini(University of Perugia)
研究分担者
深尾京司(一橋大学経済研究所)、池内健太((独)経済産業研究所)
A substantial body of research has underlined how wage inequality in Japan was relatively stable in the past few decades compared to similar countries (e.g., Katz and Revenga, 1989; Kambayashi et al., 2008; Lise et al., 2014), one of its main drivers being a substantially flat college education wage premium. Contrary to what happened in the US (and in some European countries), where college wage premium increased due to a rapid growth of demand (compared to supply) of educated workers (mainly driven by SBTC and outsourcing), the extensive growth in supply of college-educated workers has been identified as one crucial factor that allowed keeping the wage premium relatively stable (Kawaguchi and Mori, 2016). However, some preliminary research (Fukao at al., 2019) shows that the evolution of college wage premia in Japan in the last four decades varied remarkably across sectors, age groups and genders; also, depending on the industry specificities related to technology and knowledge intensity, a different relative importance should be assigned to supply, demand and institutional factors. No evidence exists so far on the role that firm level characteristics play on the college wage premium in Japan and this research proposal aims at providing a first exploration of such aspects.
In particular, along the avenue traced by Abowd et al., 1999 (and subsequent literature), we aim at: (i) identifying which technological and structural dimensions of firms' heterogeneity drive wage inequality between education groups; (ii) uncovering how the role of such firm level features depend on the competitive (i.e., exposure to international competition) and technological (industry level) environment in which companies operate

 

研究課題 マークアップ及び競争指数に関する統計の整備
研究代表者 西岡修一郎(ウェストバージニア大学)
研究分担者
深尾京司(一橋大学経済研究所)、田中万理(一橋大学)
製品価格と限界費用の比率であるマークアップ率は、競争環境と価格設定力を反映した指数である。その動向は、投資家と労働者間の経済格差の動向、企業利益や法人税の動向、企業の参入や撤退を考える上で、今後、重要な経済指標になると考えられるが、推計方法やデータの種類によって、推計値が大きく異なるという問題点がある。マクロ経済学と首尾一貫した理論を用いて、売上高と総コストから企業別のマークアップ率を推計する手法は深尾・西岡(2019)、西岡・田中(2019)及び西岡(2019)で試みてきた。本プロジェクトでは、この手法から推計したマークアップ率の実証的な妥当性を確かめるために、(1)JIPデータベースおよびKLEMSデータを用いて、国際比較が可能な長期データを産業別で作ること、及び(2)工業統計調査を用いて、国内や海外競争の指数(具体的には、競合企業数や製品数、市場シェアなどの)を作り、マークアップ指数との相関性を確かめることをプロジェクトの目的とする。

 

研究課題 Construction of Comparative Long-Term Data on Living Standards of East Asian Countries from the Late 19th Century to the Mid-20th Century
研究代表者 Duol Kim(Myongji University)
研究分担者
有本寛(一橋大学経済研究所)
Scholars have tended to study East Asian countries separately rather than comprehend them in a comparative perspective. Lack of comparable data or insufficient efforts to uncover and construct such data should be one of the most important reasons for this tendency. Our project is an attempt to overcome this inertia. We aim to explore long term patterns of living standards of East Asian countries comprehensively by constructing a database of the Koryo deceased (行旅死亡人) for Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from the late 19th century to the mid-20th century.
The Koryo deceased are dead persons who did not have any acquaintances to claim their body. It is likely that most of them belonged to the lowest stratum of society (e.g. beggars, drug addicts, and lepers) and that they died of hunger or related diseases. The Japanese government implemented an administrative process to deal with the Koryo Deceased in the late 19th century (行旅病者及行旅死亡者取扱法enacted in 1899), and this rule was applied uniformly to colonial Korea and Taiwan.
A legacy of this policy is the data on Koryo deceased collected and reported identically in these three countries. The Statistical Yearbooks of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan report prefecture/province level data on how many people died as Koryo Deceased in each year and how much amounts the governments reimbursed to local governments. Furthermore, the governments advertised details of the individual Koryo Deceased including their sex, height, approximate age, and causes of death in the Official Gazette (官報) for those who might search for missing families. In case of Korea, the total number of advertisements from 1913 to 1945 is more than 90,000, and the Japanese data is expected to cover longer time span and contain larger observations.
Using these datasets, we can conduct comparative analyses on various subjects. First, we can construct a new historical series of heights. Economic historians commonly use stature data to examine the long-term trends of the biological standard of living because height of human being reflects cumulative net nutritional status. Previous studies on stature for the early 20th century in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan mainly relied on height of primary school children from 『生徒児童身体検査統計』 (1900-) and annual regional series of the average height of Japanese conscripts (1892-1941). The new series based on Koryo Deceased has the advantage that we can expand the coverage back to the mid-19th century, which is not available from the preceding two datasets. Furthermore, the data will enable international comparative analysis of living standards between Japan, Korea and Taiwan, as the latter two countries do not have height data of school children or conscripts comparable with Japan.
Second, we can deepen our understanding on the conditions of the lowest stratum of society. While there are numerous studies of low-income workers in urban areas based on contemporaneous reports and studies of urban slums (貧民調査), to the best of our knowledge, the information on Koryo Deceased has never been used extensively. The data is comprehensive and consistent in both regional and intertemporal dimensions, which enables us to uncover facts in a comparable manner. Furthermore, we can explore the impact of environmental or economic shocks such as the Great Kanto earthquake in 1923, Showa Sanriku Earthquake and tsunami in 1933, and the Showa Tohoku crop failure in 1934. As the Koryo deceased are the most vulnerable to such shocks, measuring correlation between these shocks and incidence of Koryo deceased can enhance our understanding on how much the shocks mattered for welfares and how social securities ameliorated the shocks.

 

研究課題 Consumption of top income earners in Japan and Britain
研究代表者 眞嶋史叙(学習院大学)
研究分担者
北村行伸(一橋大学経済研究所)、Siobhan McAndrew(University of Bristo)、柿埜真吾(学習院大学)、Alan Warde(University of Manchester)
Theoretical accounts of income, consumption and wealth by top income earners requires observations across time and space. Although increasing concentration of income and wealth have been discussed widely over the last few decades, there have been little information about elite consumption. To understand the distributions and dynamics of income and wealth accumulation, accounts must also be made simultaneously on the patterns of spending. In Britain, consumption and cultural patterns of the elite have not been subject to systematic social science analysis, apart from the investigations pursued mainly by the Centre for Research on Socio-cultural Change, University of Manchester, as shown in Gayo-Cal et al (2006), Majima and Warde (2008) and Bennett et al (2008). And in Japan, there has not been equivalent studies conducted, to our knowledge. This project takes a step forward by looking in detail at changes in the consumption behavior of members of the economic elite in Britain and Japan comparatively over time.
The overall research objectives of this project overlap with the objectives of the UK-Japan SSH Connection Project, 'Culture, Class, Connection: Bridging Debates on Contemporary Inequality in the UK and Japan', to which the PI of this project is a Co-I. The both projects aim at direct knowledge exchange of scholarship on socio-economic inequality between academics in Japan and the UK and aspire to build a research network of scholars with a shared interest in understanding the accumulation and reproduction of inequalities. While the SSH Connection grant covers the travels expenses for the two main international workshops held in the UK and Japan, in February and April 2020 respectively, the actual research collaboration components are not funded. This small-scale research collaboration with a focus on elite consumption is designed to be a prototype for a larger subsequent proposal for a mixed methods comparative analysis of class formation due to income, consumption and wealth inequalities that will follow on from the initial networking project.
This project involves a collaboration between economists, sociologists and socio-economic historians to investigate the characteristics of consumption by top income earners in Japan and the UK, primarily using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey in Japan and Living Costs and Food Survey in the UK. Moreover, it is designed to provide opportunity to explore the whole range of anonymized microdata from the Japanese governmental statistical surveys, such as Population Census, Housing and Land Survey, Survey of Household Economy, National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure, and Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (that are virtually unknown to the UK researchers) and for us to think about the future collaborative projects. The PI and Co-Is intend to explore the possibilities of actively comparing the data sources provided by the Statistics Bureau of Japan and the Office for National Statistics, UK, and also to critically and creatively engage with the possible limitations of representative surveys to capture the consumption, income and wealth of the elite in the two countries.

 

研究課題 Study of Industrial Enterprises and Industrial Labour in Faridabad region in India
研究代表者 Jesim Pais(Society for Social and Economic Research)
研究分担者
黒崎卓(一橋大学経済研究所)、Surajit Mazumdar(Jawaharlal Nehru University)
The Indian economy over the last few decades has been undergoing several important structural changes which are significantly impacting on and changing the world of industrial labour in India.
For one, the persistent crisis in the agrarian sector and its increasing inability to provide a livelihood to an expanding population has meant that there is a large increase in the supply of labour for non-agricultural activities without that being contingent on wage increases. Given that it is mainly distress driven in nature, which implies absence of accumulated complementary resources, wage employment rather than self-employment is the natural direction towards which this supply first flows, even if inadequate demand for labour services forces many into low productivity self-employment.
Of course the industrial sector is not the only sector of wage employment. Moreover, India is actually in a prominent position in the list of economies experiencing under globalization what has been called premature de-industrialization (Rodrik 2015, Chaudhuri 2015). However, a large part of the trend towards a declining relative importance of manufacturing in India's economy has been borne by the unorganized segment of Indian manufacturing. The private corporate sector has become during this period even more dominant in organized manufacturing than had been the case before liberalization (Rajakumar 2011). In the early years of this century, a long period of jobless growth in organized manufacturing came to an end and almost the entire increase in manufacturing employment thereafter has been in relatively large-scale organized manufacturing (Goldar 2011, Mehrotra et al 2014). This happened despite a marked trend of declining labour-intensity which has been most pronounced in the labour-intensive industries (Sen and Das 2015), as investment growth was very rapid (Nagaraj 2011). While industrial investment, output and employment growth have slowed down considerably in the current decade, they have not ceased completely and nor have the changes in the industrial sector been reversed.
As a reflection of the larger labour market context, the expansion of the industrial working class has been accompanied by wage stagnation and increased casualization and 'informalization' within the organized industrial sector (Muralidharan et al 2014, Sen and Das 2015, Sood et al 2014). At the same time, openness and its related structural changes in the industrial sector have also meant changes in the technological context of Indian manufacturing and increased sophistication of the production process of manufactured products. The linkages between the organized and unorganized sectors may have also undergone reconstruction in this background.
Thus, perhaps a new class of industrial labour is taking shape in India out of the contradictory patterns of movement in her economy. A squeezing out of the traditional informal sector but not a reduction in 'informality' characterizes its world. The consequent cheap and elastic labour regime coexists with increased mechanization of production. The two can work in tandem to increase the working times as well as the intensity of work but at the same time limits the ability to extract higher productivity through technological progress (Mazumdar 2016). This contradiction between a reliance on cheap labour versus cheapening through productivity increases gets heightened by the historically derived strongly mercantile orientation of India's industrial capitalist (Tyabji 2000) and the pressures emanating from heightened exposure to global competition and industrial crisis. The instability of the industrial and general economic environment also means that industrial labouring activity may not be the stable and long-term occupation of industrial workers. Neither may be the location of their work or employers be always stable. This might also, however, mean that many more may be working for some periods of time in industry than those deemed to be employed at any point of time.
This new emerging world of industrial labour in India merits comprehensive study if we are to have a deeper understanding of a class coming to occupy an increasingly important position within the structure of Indian society, the political consequences of which may not be entirely reflected in the 'voice' it has today. Existing secondary data sources are not sufficient to capture all the important dimensions of change in this world - partly also because these are based on information supplied by employers. There are also caste and gender dimensions to these changes not easily captured through secondary data. Therefore, primary surveys focused on understanding where they come from and the conditions of their living and labouring have a crucial role to play.
In this context, researchers associated with the Society for Social and Economic Research (SSER) and the Institute of Economic Research have been collaborating to develop a multi-year programme of research on manufacturing industry and industrial labour in India. These researchers have been associated with various studies of agrarian and industrial sectors in India for over two decades. The effort now is to build a structured, long-term programme of research that helps build systematic evidence that can be used to develop an overall understanding of significant changes that are taking place in these sectors.
This programme of research would combine field-based studies of manufacturing enterprises and of industrial labour with macro-level studies using data from large-scale official surveys. The proposed study is an inception study, a pilot, to test the fieldwork methodology on industrial labour in one of the sites of interest to the larger project.
In 2017, the group conducted a survey of an industrial cluster in Nabha district of Punjab. Nabha is the hub of manufacture of combine harvesters in India. With Punjab leading the Green Revolution in India, there was a huge expansion in the market for agricultural machinery. This resulted in a significant growth of manufacturing and service industry for provision of various kinds of agricultural machinery. The industry is dominated by persons belonging to the caste of carpenters and blacksmiths. Combined harvester manufacturing is a niche segment of this larger agricultural machinery industry. What makes the combine harvester industry in India unique is that, unlike elsewhere in the world, the manufacturing is dominated by relatively small enterprises. These enterprises produce a few generic models of combine harvesters, originally based on reverse engineering an East German model imported in the 1970, and to which various design improvements have been introduced by the local manufacturers over the past four decades. The generic designs of these combine harvesters makes it easy for these to be serviced by local mechanics anywhere in India as availability of spare parts and skilled mechanics is not a problem.
This study of combine harvesters helped us test methodology of firm-level data collection from small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises. The survey of about 70 enterprises manufacturing combine harvesters provided us detailed data on their origins, on the caste and social roots of the industry, of the business practices and profitability, and of the nature of employment created by this industry.
We would now like to conduct a survey of industrial workers. The objective of this study is two fold.
• First, to develop data collection and data processing methodology that can be replicated in similar surveys of industrial labour in other locations in India.
• Second, to collect data on conditions of life and work of industrial workers in the city of Faridabad.
Faridabad holds a significant place in the history of industrialisation in India. Soon after India's independence, Faridabad, located close to the national capital, was identified as a suitable location for development of a major industrial centre. Several initiatives were taken to develop Faridabad, including the creation of a New Industrial Township (NIT) and provision of subsidised land, credit and other facilities for establishment of industrial enterprises. Faridabad - which acquired the status of an industrial township by the late 1970s and saw a sustained growth until the early 1990s - was a showpiece of planned industrialisation during the pre-liberalisation period. The advent of policies of liberalization however led to a major change in the industrial landscape of Faridabad. Large manufacturing enterprises, many of them producing heavy machinery, dominated the industrial scene until the early 1990s. In the post-liberalisation period, the machinery industry of Faridabad went into a decline, unable to face competition in the liberalised economy. While many large factories were shut, Faridabad's industrial landscape saw growth of smaller enterprises manufacturing consumer goods.
This change in industrial landscape is also associated with changes in the forms of labour hiring. At present, Faridabad is home to a large number of migrant industrial workers. These workers, typically hired on informal hire-and-fire contracts, are unprotected by labour regulation and have minimal coverage under social protection programmes. These workers have migrated from different States of the country, and at different points of time. This concentrated population of migrant industrial labour provides an opportunity to study the conditions of work, forms and routes of migration, implementation of labour regulations and social protection, and the relationship between industrial and agrarian sectors.

 

研究課題 Land Use and Aggregate Productivity
研究代表者 吉田二郎(Pennsylvania State Universit)
研究分担者
植杉威一郎(一橋大学経済研究所)、清水千弘(日本大学)
The objective of this study is to theoretically and empirically demonstrate how suboptimal land use can create social costs by depressing productivity. In particular, we emphasize the heterogeneity of land and analyze the effect of the suboptimal land use on productivity at both micro and macro levels by using a unique data set. As the Economist magazine asserts, "formidable obstacles prevent many poor countries from growing in the way that models of knowledge accumulation and diffusion suggest they could." (p.70, April 14th, 2018) We hypothesize that suboptimal land use is one of such obstacles for developed countries.

Consider a manufacturer owning an industrial property in a city that evolved from an industrial city to a commercial center (e.g., New York and Tokyo). The most productive use of the site was a factory when it was initially developed but is currently offices for the tertiary sector. Some neighborhoods successfully transformed land use. A good example is SOHO in New York, which was an area for light manufacturing in the early 20th century but currently is the agglomeration of the fashion and design industries. The fashion industry in the area contributes to the growth of local and national economies. Another example is the central Tokyo during and after the so-called Bubble Period. Low-density residential areas such as Roppongi 6-Chome were converted to high-density business districts. These districts attracted foreign firms and enhanced Tokyo's agglomeration economy. However, there are neighborhoods that did not experience a successful transformation of land use. The loss of productivity by such a misallocation of land can have a significant impact on the local and national economies.

In the New York example, an optimizing manufacturer would sell its property to a developer or a service firm and move to another location such as a transportation node. However, if there are frictions, the manufacturer may inefficiently operate at the same location, ignoring the opportunity for a service firm. The frictions include real estate transaction costs (search, tax, etc.), land use regulation, financial constraints, and the inertia that stems from coordination failure. Firms may also continue to own real estate to strategically limit competition as the principal investigator finds (Ambrose, Diop, and Yoshida, 2016).

The goal of this study is to identify the economic mechanism that prevents the land use transformation and quantify the potential gain in productivity by optimizing land use. In the first phase of this research project, we focus on the change in land use in the Tokyo metropolitan area. By using the longitudinal GIS data of site-level land use in the area during the period 1990-2010, we will estimate the impact of land-use changes on the local economy at the finest grid level. We will further estimate the aggregate impact of land-use changes on productivity at the ward/city and region levels.

Several recent studies on productivity that focus on land use and real estate have drawn significant attention. Hsieh and Moretti (2017) estimate the loss of the national GDP due to the misallocation of housing capital. Their studies are also featured in various general-interest journals such as the Economist and New York Times. Hornbeck and Keniston (2017) demonstrated a positive impact of the Great Boston Fire of 1872 on reconstruction and urban growth. Herkenhoff, Ohanian, and Prescott (2017) demonstrate that state-level land-use restrictions have depressed macroeconomic activity since 2000 particularly in California and New York. One of our research contributors studies the relation between corporate land ownership and the firm-level TFP (Uesugi, Hosono, Miyakawa, Ono, and Uchida, 2018)

 

研究課題 パーソナルサポート・ニーズの計量分析:
研究代表者 猪飼周平(一橋大学)
研究分担者
森口千晶(一橋大学経済研究所)、野口晴子(早稲田大学)、野崎伸一(厚生労働省)、山邊聖士(一橋大学)
本研究は、2015年度より生活困窮者自立支援法に基づいて各基礎自治体において実施されている自立相談支援事業のアセスメントシートの分析を通じて、従来のセーフティネットによって必要な支援が行われてこなかった支援ニーズの大きさを推計するとともに当該要支援者の性質を把握することを目的とする。
近年福祉政策領域において、いわゆる「制度の狭間」「縦割り行政」の弊害ということが主張されるようになってきている。日本を含む先進各国においては、戦後、社会保障を中核とする福祉政策が推進され、社会保険・公的扶助・社会福祉・公衆衛生などによる生活保障の網を張り巡らせてきた。国際比較的にみれば、相対的に小さい福祉国家と評価されてきた日本においても、今日では相応のきめ細かい生活支援制度が形成されているに至っている。
これに対し、2000年代以降徐々に明らかになってきたことは、このような制度の網目をすり抜けるように、生活を再建できないまま、生活困難の状況を生きる人びとが少なからず存在するということである。たとえば、2008年においてNPOライフリンクが実施した自殺に関する実態調査によれば、70%の自殺者が事前に専門機関や行政に相談しており、また自殺30日以内に限定しても、48%の自殺者が同様に相談に行っている(ライフリンク[2008],[2013])。これらの人びとは、従来の支援の網の目をすり抜けて自殺に至っているのである。また本研究に先立って、予備的に代表研究者らによって行われた「よりそいホットライン」調査では、自殺者に限らず厳しい生活困難に直面する人びとで従来の支援の網目から漏れた人びとが、約800万人-1600万人に至る可能性があるという暫定的な結果を得ている。
このような従来の支援によっては手の届かない人びとについて、課題となるのは、1)どのような人びとが支援から漏れるのか(特徴の把握)、2)どのくらいの人びとが支援から漏れるのか(量の把握)、3)なぜそのようなセーフティネットの破れが生ずるのか(原因の把握)である。これに対し、本研究では、主に1)と2)について分析を行う。3)については、1)、2)の結果から自ずと一定の示唆を得ることができよう。
この課題を解明するため本研究では、生活困窮者自立支援法に基づいて各基礎自治体において2015年度より実施されている自立相談支援事業に焦点を当てる。この相談事業の最大の特徴は、相談内容を限定しないということである。これは従来の支援制度にはほとんどみられない特徴である。この特徴のため、特定の支援対象・支援方法・支援目標をもつ他の支援制度によって十分な対応を得られなかった人びとが、自立相談支援事業に流れ込んでくることが予想される(実際同様の特徴をもつヘルプラインである「よりそいホットライン」においても、事前に他の支援制度に相談した経験を持つ人は81%に及んでいる。)
この相談事業の特徴を利用して、本研究では、従来の支援制度からこぼれ落ちた人びとについて、特徴の把握および自立相談支援事業に関する潜在的ニーズの大きさについて把握することを目指す。
1970年代におけるオイルショック以後、日本を含む福祉国家は規模の拡大を続けながらも、同時に緊縮(austerity)の圧力にさらされてきた。このため、福祉国家論は、概ねこの福祉国家を巡る拡大と緊縮という2つのダイナミズムの中で行われてきたといえる。社会的投資国家論、ニューリスク論なども大まかにはこの文脈に含まれる。これに対し本研究が示唆しようとしているのは、福祉国家の単純な拡大によっては、決して包括することのできないニーズが、社会に存在しているということであり、福祉国家の従来的な性格それ自体に限界があるということである。言い換えれば、これは、本研究が、福祉国家論の論争の基本的なパラダイムの変更を要求する研究となる可能性があるということである。
もとより、自立相談支援事業を現状で利用している人びとはおよそ年間70万人程度であり、そこから上記のニーズの全体を把握することができるわけではない。だが、この本研究の成果および研究方法が、この文脈を加速させることに貢献する可能性は十分にあり、その意味において、本研究には学術的にも政策的にも重要性が認められるといえよう。

 

研究課題 Personalities, career characteristics, and the historical development of Japanese monetary policy
研究代表者 Christopher Spencer(Loughborough University)
研究分担者
北村行伸(一橋大学経済研究所)
The Bank of Japan has undergone profound changes since its establishment in 1882. The aim of the research is to investigate the evolving nature of this institution following its founding, from the perspective of the changing career and background characteristics of past Governors and other high-ranking officials. The analysis will span a 133-year period from 1882-2019. Biographical records will be used to facilitate the construction of comprehensive quantitative and qualitative variables pertaining to individuals career experiences prior to being appointed to such roles, as well as other relevant individual characteristics (age, university education, and so on). This information will then be exploited with a view to explaining how the type of individuals that have been appointed to prominent positions at the Bank of Japan have influenced the policy decisions of the Bank, whilst explicitly taking into consideration the role of the political and economic environment.

To contextualize the proposed research, there already exists a large body of work which explores the relationship between the career backgrounds of central bankers and monetary policy. Most contributions focus on the historical experience of monetary policymaking at the US Federal Reserve. This literature posits that different occupational backgrounds will exert different influences on policymakers' preferences. For example, in a number of influential studies, it is hypothesized that experience in the finance industry may lead one to be more inflation averse, which in turn will be reflected in policy decisions. As a counterpoint to this general approach, work by Romer and Romer (2004) rejects this view, by suggesting that central bankers' personal background characteristics play a very limited role in shaping policy preferences. Policy preferences are instead attributed to alternative factors such as individuals' beliefs, which may be completely uncorrelated with career backgrounds. We will aim to explore these issues in the context of the Bank of Japan.

Building on extant research that has sought to explain the role of personalities and individual characteristics on monetary policy making, particularly in the United States, will lead to the construction of a unique micro-dataset. The resultant research outputs will be of interest to economic historians, and academic researchers with an interest in central banking and the development of the Japanese financial system.