次回のイベント・研究会

最新の研究成果

◆ 書 籍

 
書 名: The Myanmar economy, its past, present and prospects

編著者: Odaka, Konosuke

出版社: Springer

発行日: 印刷中

 

書 名: Regional Inequality and Industrial Structure in Japan: 1874-2008

編著者: Fukao, Kyoji, Jean-Pascal Bassino, Tatsuji Makino, Ralph Paprzycki, Tokihiko Settsu, Masanori Takashima, and Joji Tokui

出版社: Maruzen

発行日: 2015年3月

ISBN-13: 978-4621089132

 

書 名: これからの日本の国際協力:ビッグ・ドナーからスマート・ドナーへ

編著者: 黒崎卓・大塚啓二郎

出版社: 日本評論社

発行日: 2015年2月

ISBN-10: 4535557942

ISBN-13: 978-4535557949

 
書 名: 新版 比較史の遠近法

著 者: 斎藤修

出版社: 書籍工房早山

発行日: 2015年2月

ISBN-10: 4904701003

ISBN-13: 978-4904701003

 

書 名: 金融システム改革と東南アジア:長期趨勢と企業金融の実証分析

著 者: 三重野文晴

出版社: 勁草書房

発行日: 2015年2月

ISBN-10: 4326546050

ISBN-13: 978-4326546053

 

書 名: Resilience and Recovery in Asian Disasters: Community Ties, Market Mechanisms, and Governance

編著者: Aldrich, Daniel P., Sothea Oum, and Yasuyuki Sawada

出版社: Springer

発行日: 2014年10月

ISBN-10: 4431550216

ISBN-13: 978-4431550211

 

書 名: 環境の経済史:森林・市場・国家

著 者: 斎藤修

出版社: 岩波書店

発行日: 2014年6月

ISBN-10: 4000291335

ISBN-13: 978-4000291330 

 

書 名: 応用ミクロ計量経済学II

編著者: 北村行伸

出版社: 日本評論社

発行日: 2014年3月

ISBN-10: 4535557624

ISBN-13: 978-4535557628

 

書 名: 巨大災害・リスクと経済

編著者: 澤田康幸

出版社: 日本経済新聞出版社

発行日: 2014年1月

ISBN-10: 4532134455

ISBN-13: 978-4532134457

 

書 名: 税制改革のミクロ実証分析:家計経済からみた所得税・消費税

著 者: 北村行伸・宮崎毅

出版社: 岩波書店

発行日: 2013年2月

ISBN-10: 4000099213

ISBN-13: 978-4000099219

 

書 名: ミャンマー経済の新しい光

編著者: 尾高煌之助・三重野文晴

出版社: 勁草書房

発行日: 2012年9月

ISBN-10: 4326503688

ISBN-13: 978-4326503681

 

書 名: 通商産業政策史 3 産業政策

編著者: 岡崎哲二

出版社: 経済産業調査会

発行日: 2012年4月

ISBN-10: 4806528684

ISBN-13: 978-4806528685

 

書 名: 金融業と人口オーナス経済:高齢化社会における金融・経済のあり方

著 者: 翁邦雄・北村行伸

出版社: 日本評論社

発行日: 2011年5月

ISBN: 9784535556270

ISBN: 453555627X

 

◆ 査読付き雑誌公刊論文

タイトル: "Spatial Characteristics of Long-term Changes in Indian Agricultural Production: District-Level Analysis, 1965-2007"

著 者: Kurosaki, Takashi and Kazuya Wada

雑誌名: Review of Agrarian Studies

出版年: 印刷中

 

タイトル: "Learning from Disaster: Community-based Marine Protected Areas in Fiji"

著 者: Takasaki, Yoshito

雑誌名: Environment and Development Economics

出版年: 印刷中

 

タイトル: "In Praise of Angus Maddison: A reviewer's informal notes on D.S. Prasada Rao and Bart von Ark, eds., World economic performance: Past, present and future, Essays in celebration of the life and work of Angus Maddison, 2013"

著 者: Odaka, Konosuke

雑誌名: Asian-Pacific Economic Literature

出版年: 印刷中

 

タイトル: "Task Polarization in the Japanese Labor Market: Evidence of a Long-term Trend"

著 者: Kambayashi, Ryo and Toshie Ikenaga

雑誌名: Industrial Relations

出版年: 印刷中

 

タイトル: "Disemployment Caused by Foreign Direct Investment? Multinationals and Japanese Employment"

著 者: Kambayashi, Ryo and Kozo Kiyota

雑誌名: Review of World Economics

出版年: 印刷中

 

タイトル: "Growth and Inequality in the Great and Little Divergence Debate: A Japanese Perspective"

著 者: Saito, Osamu

雑誌名: Economic History Review

出版年: 印刷中

 

タイトル: "Impact of Natural Disasters on Industrial Agglomeration: The Case of the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923"

著 者: Imaizumi, Asuka, Kaori Ito and Tetsuji Okazaki

雑誌名: Explorations in Economic History

出版年: 印刷中(2015年)

 

タイトル: "Long-term Agricultural Growth in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from 1901/2 to 2001/2"

著 者: Kurosaki, Takashi

雑誌名: International Journal of South Asian Studies, Vol. 7

出版年: 2015年

 

タイトル: "Vulnerability of Household Consumption to Floods and Droughts in Developing Countries: Evidence from Pakistan"

著 者: Kurosaki, Takashi

雑誌名: Environment and Development Economics, vol.20, issue 2

出版年: 2015年

 

タイトル: "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect the Resilience of Firms to Natural Disasters? Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake"

著 者: Todo, Yasuyuki, Kentaro Nakajima, and Petr Matous

雑誌名: Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 55

出版年: 2015年

 

タイトル: "The Impact of Saving and Credit Union Program on Household Welfare in Lao PDR: Case Study in Valentine Vicinity in mid-2000s"

著 者: Mieno, Fumiharu and Kongpasa Sengsourivong

雑誌名: Southeast Asian Studies, Vol.3

出版年: 2015年

 

タイトル: "Analysis of Meteorological Measurements made over Three Rainy Seasons and Rainfall  Simulations in Sinazongwe District, Southern Province, Zambia"

著 者: Kanno, Hiromitsu, Takeshi Sakurai, Hitoshi Shinjo, Hidetoshi Miyazaki, Yudai Ishimoto, Tazu Saeki, and Chieko Umetsu

雑誌名: Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly, Vol. 49, No.1

出版年: 2015年

 

タイトル: 「開発途上国におけるコミュニティ動員型開発と集計的ショック:パキスタンのNGOの事例より」

著 者: 黒崎卓・Hidayat Ullah Khan

雑誌名: 経済研究 65巻2号

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "How Is Disaster Aid Allocated within Poor Villages? Risk Sharing and Social Hierarchy"

著 者: Takasaki, Yoshito

雑誌名: Journal of International Development, vol.26, no.8

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: 「カンボジア大虐殺の教育への長期的影響」

著 者: 小暮克夫・高崎善人

雑誌名: 経済研究 65巻1号

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: 「サブサハラ・アフリカの鉱物資源需要と農家家計の貧困削減:ブルキナ・ファソのゴールドラッシュの事例」

著 者: 櫻井武司・井上亮

雑誌名: 農業経済学論文集

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Agglomeration Effects of Inter-firm Backward and Forward Linkages: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investment in China"

著 者: Yamashita, Nobuaki, Kentaro Nakajima, and Toshiyuki Matsuura

雑誌名: Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol.34, No.5

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "How Important is Geographical Agglomeration to Factory Efficiency in Japan's Manufacturing Sector?"

著 者: Fukao, Kyoji, Victoria Kravtsova, and Kentaro Nakajima

雑誌名: The Annals of Regional Science, Vol.52, No.2

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Asia's Little Divergence: State Capacity in China and Japan Before 1850"

著 者: Moriguchi, Chiaki and Tuan-Hwee Sng

雑誌名: Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 19, No.4

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "How Access to Irrigation Influences Poverty and Livelihoods: A Case Study from Sri Lanka"

著 者: Sellamuttu, Sonali Senaratna, Takeshi Aida, Ryuji Kasahara, Yasuyuki Sawada, and Deeptha Wijerathna

雑誌名: Journal of Development Studies, Vol.50, Issue 5

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "On the Role of Policy Interventions in Structural Change and Economic Development: The Case of Postwar Japan"

著 者: Esteban-Pretel, Julen and Yasuyuki Sawada

雑誌名: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 40(C)

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "The Role of Infrastructure in Mitigating Poverty Dynamics: The Case of an Irrigation Project in Sri Lanka"

著 者: Sawada, Yasuyuki, Masahiro Shoji, Shinya Sugawara, and Naoko Shinkai

雑誌名: B. E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Topics), Vol. 14, Issue 3

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル:「ブルキナ・ファソ農村の30年:貧困から抜け出せたのか」

著 者: 櫻井武司・井上亮

雑誌名: 経済研究 65巻1号

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Sources of Productivity Improvement in Industrial Clusters: The Case of the Prewar Japanese Silk-Reeling Industry"

著 者: Arimoto, Yutaka, Kentaro Nakajima, and Tetsuji Okazaki

雑誌名: Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.46

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Who Faces Higher Prices? An Empirical Analysis based on Japanese Homescan Data"

著 者: Abe, Naohito and Kyosuke Shiotani

雑誌名: Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol. 9, No.1

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Incidence of Strict Quality Standards: Protection of Consumers or Windfall for Professionals?"

著 者: Kambayashi, Ryo, Daiji Kawaguchi, and Tetsushi Murao

雑誌名: Journal of Law and Economics, Vol.57

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Does Community Management Help Keep Children in Schools? Evidence Using Panel Data from El Salvador's EDUCO Program"

著 者: Jimenez, Emmanuel and Yasuyuki Sawada

雑誌名: Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 62, No.2

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: 「二十世紀アメリカの養子と継子:国勢調査にみる長期的変遷」

著 者: 森口千晶

雑誌名: 経済研究 65巻1号

出版年: 2014年

 

タイトル: "Dynamics of Household Assets and Income Shocks in the Long-run Process of Economic Development: The Case of Rural Pakistan"

著 者: Kurosaki, Takashi

雑誌名: Asian Development Review, vol.30, no.2

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: 「インド・デリー市におけるサイクルリキシャ業:都市インフォーマルセクターと農村からの労働移動」

著 者: 黒崎卓

雑誌名: 経済研究 64巻1号

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: 「東アジアの経済成長と教育ストック」

著 者: 神門善久

雑誌名: 経済研究 64巻1号

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: 「1930年代日本の農家負債:『農家負債に関する調査』のミクロデータ分析」

著 者: 有本寛・藤栄剛 ・仙田徹志

雑誌名: 経済研究 64巻1号

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "Indigenous Climate Information and Modern Meteorological Records in Sinazongwe District, Southern Province, Zambia"

著 者: Kanno, Hiromitsu, Takeshi Sakurai, Hitoshi Shinjo, Hidetoshi Miyazaki, Yudai Ishimoto, Tazu Saeki, Chieko Umetsu, Sesele Sokotela, and Milimo Chiboola

雑誌名: Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly, Vol. 47, No.2

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: 「若年者の直面する雇用・所得リスクに関する一考察:パネルデータと予備的貯蓄モデルを用いた動学分析」

著 者: 阿部修人

雑誌名: 経済研究 64巻3号

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "The Minimum Wage in a Deflationary Economy: The Japanese Experience, 1994-2003"

著 者: Kambayashi, Ryo, Daiji Kawaguchi, and Ken Yamada

雑誌名: Labor Economics, Vol.24

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "Trends in Worker Displacement Penalties in Japan: 1991-2005"

著 者: Kambayashi, Ryo and Michael Bognanno

雑誌名: Japan and the World Economy, Vol.27

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "Toward Myanmar's New Stage of Development: Transition from Military Rule to the Market"

著 者: Mieno, Fumiharu

雑誌名: Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol.8, No.1

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "Modes of Collective Action in Village Economies: Evidence from Natural and Artefactual Field Experiments in a Developing Country"

著 者: Sawada, Yasuyuki, Ryuji Kasahara, Keitaro Aoyagi, Masahiro Shoji and Mika Ueyama

雑誌名: Asian Development Review, Vol. 30, No.1

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "Disability and Returns to Education in a Developing Country"

著 者: Kamal, Lamichhane and Yasuyuki Sawada

雑誌名: Economics of Education Review, Vol. 37(C)

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "Explaining Japan's Unproductive Two Decades"

著 者: Fukao, Kyoji

雑誌名: Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol. 8, No.2

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: 「都道府県別産業生産性(R-JIP)データベースの構築と地域間生産性格差の分析」

著 者: 徳井丞次、牧野達治、深尾京司、宮川努、新井信幸、新井園枝、乾友彦、川崎一泰、児玉直美、野口尚洋

雑誌名: 経済研究 64巻3号

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: 「地域間の人的資本格差とその要因」

著 者: 徳井丞次、牧野達治、児玉直美、深尾京司

雑誌名: 経済研究64巻3号

出版年: 2013年

 

タイトル: "How Does Credit Access Affect Children's Time Allocation? Evidence from Rural India"

著 者: Fuwa, Nobuhiko, Seiro Ito, Kensuke Kubo, Takashi Kurosaki, and Yasuyuki Sawada

雑誌名: Journal of Globalization and Development, Volume 3, No. 1, Online version

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: 「途上国における自然災害の経済分析に向けたデータ収集方法:研究展望とパキスタンの事例」

著 者: 黒崎卓

雑誌名: アジア経済 53巻4号

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: "Vulnerability of Microfinance to Strategic Default and Covariate Shocks: Evidence from Pakistan"

著 者: Kurosaki, Takashi and Hidayat Ullah Khan

雑誌名: Developing Economies, Volume 50, No. 2

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: 「産業集積と労働市場:労働プーリングを通じた集積効果」

著 者: 中島賢太郎・岡崎哲二

雑誌名: 経済研究 63巻3号

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: "Interbank Networks in PrewarJapan: Structure and Implications"

著 者: Okazaki, Tetsuji and Michiru Sawada

雑誌名: Industrial & Corporate Change, Volume 21, No. 2

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: 「誰が天候インデックス保険を購入するのか:ザンビア農村における販売実験」

著 者: 三浦憲・櫻井武司

雑誌名: 農業経済研究別冊 2012年度日本農業経済学会論文集

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: "Child Adoption in the United States, 1950-2010: A Historical Analysis"

著 者: Moriguchi, Chiaki

雑誌名: 経済研究 63巻3号

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: "Participatory Rural Development in 1930s Japan: The Economic Rehabilitation Movement"

著 者: Arimoto, Yutaka

雑誌名: Developing Economies, Volume 50, No.2

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: "Transformation of the Rural Economy in the Philippines,1988-2006"

著 者: Ramos, Charity Gay, Jonna Estudillo, Yasuyuki Sawada, and Keijiro Otsuka

雑誌名: Journal of Development Studies, Volume 48, No.11

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: "The MDGs and Exit Time: The Case of the Philippines"

著 者: Sawada, Yasuyuki and Jonna P. Estudillo

雑誌名: Applied Economics 44巻26号

出版年: 2012年

 

タイトル: 「村落レベルの集計的ショックに対する家計の脆弱性:パキスタン農村部における自然災害の事例」

著 者: 黒崎卓

雑誌名: 経済研究 62巻2号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Floods, Relief Aid, and Household Resilience in Rural Pakistan: Findings from a Pilot Survey in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa"

著 者: Kurosaki, Takashi and Humayun Khan

雑誌名: The Review of Agrarian Studies 1巻2号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Supplier Networks and Aircraft Production in Wartime Japan"

著 者: Tetsuji Okazaki

雑誌名: Economic History Review 64巻3号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「途上国における災害援助物資の村内分配:血族社会の相互扶助と階層」

著 者: 高崎善人

雑誌名: 経済研究 62巻2号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「家計の脆弱性と回復力:ザンビアの事例」

著 者: 櫻井武司、那須田晃子、木附晃実、三浦憲、菅野洋光、山内太郎

雑誌名: 経済研究 62巻2号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Measuring Resilience of Household Consumption: The Case of the Southern Province of Zambia"

著 者: Sakurai, Takeshi, Akiko Nasuda, Akinori Kitsuki, Ken Miura, Taro Yamauchi, and H. Kanno

雑誌名: 農業経済研究 別冊 2011年度日本農業経済学会論文集

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「豪雨被害が家計および個人の時間配分に与える影響分析:ザンビア南部州の事例」

著 者: 那須田晃子・菅野洋光・櫻井武司

雑誌名: 農業経済研究 別冊 2011年度日本農業経済学会論文集

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「ザンビア農村における消費の季節変動と消費構成の変化」

著 者: 木附晃実・櫻井武司

雑誌名: 農業経済研究 別冊 2011年度日本農業経済学会論文集

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Shock and Livestock Transactions in Rural Zambia: A Re-examination of the Buffer Stock Hypothesis"

著 者: Miura, Ken, Hiromitsu Kanno, and Takeshi Sakurai

雑誌名: Japanese Journal of Rural Economics 14巻

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Marriage Promotion Policies and Regional Differences in Marriage"

著 者: Kitamura, Yukinobu and Takeshi Miyazaki

雑誌名: The Japanese Economy 38巻2号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「家計の資産選択行動における学歴効果:逐次クロスセクションデータによる実証分析」

著 者: 北村行伸・内野泰助

雑誌名: 金融経済研究 33巻

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「自然災害被害に対して借入は有効に作用するか?南インドにおける津波被災者データの分析から」

著 者: 澤田康幸・庄司匡宏・サンガ サラス

雑誌名: 経済研究 62巻2号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "The Stem Family and Labour Markets: Reflections on Households and Firms in Japan's Economic Development"

著 者: Osamu Saito

雑誌名: The History of the Family 16巻

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: 「Homescanによる家計別の物価変化率の特徴」

著 者: 阿部修人・塩谷匡介

雑誌名: 経済研究 62巻4号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Dynamics of Growth, Poverty, and Inequality: A Panel Analysis of Regional Data from Thailand and the Philippines"

著 者: Kurita, Kyosuke and Takashi Kurosaki

雑誌名: Asian Economic Journal  25巻1号

出版年: 2011年

 

タイトル: "Targeting the Vulnerable and the Choice of Vulnerability Measures: Review and Application to Pakistan"

著 者: Takashi Kurosaki

雑誌名: Pakistan Development Review 49巻2号

出版年: 2010年

 

タイトル: 「労働移動とネットワーク、都市貧困:デリーのリキシャ引きの事例から」

著 者: 黒崎卓

雑誌名: 南アジア研究 22号

出版年: 2010年

 

タイトル: 「インド、パキスタン、バングラデシュにおける長期農業成長」

著 者: 黒崎卓

雑誌名: 経済研究 61巻2号

出版年: 2010年

 

タイトル: “Agrarian Land Tenancy in Prewar Japan: Contract Choice and Implications on Productivity”

著 者: Yutaka Arimoto, Tetsuji Okazaki and Masaki Nakabayashi

雑誌名: Developing Economies 48巻3号

出版年: 2010年

 

 

 

 

 

 

No. 11

Takashi Kurosaki

"Wages in Kind and Economic Development: Historical and Contemporary Evidence from Asia."

Abstract: This paper investigates the function of various modes of wage payment, focusing on the role of in-kind wages in enhancing household food security when markets are underdeveloped. Historical records from Asian countries, including pre-war Japan and colonial India, demonstrate the importance of in-kind wage payment in the initial phase of economic development. However, there is a paucity of theoretical explanations of in-kind wages in terms of their function and rationale in existing literature. This paper therefore develops a theoretical model that explains labor supply under different labor contracts, by incorporating considerations of food security as the main explanation for in-kind wages. The model predicts that when food security considerations are important for workers, owing to poverty and thin food markets, they tend to work more under contracts where wages are paid in kind (food) than under contracts where wages are paid in cash. This prediction is supported by empirical evidence from rural Myanmar. Estimation results of the reduced-form determinants of labor supply show that workers supply more labor for work paid in kind when the share of staple food in the workers’ household budget is higher and the farmlands on which they produce food themselves are smaller.

March 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 390kB]

 

No. 10

Takashi Kurosaki and Hidayat Ullah Khan

"Vulnerability of Microfinance to Strategic Default and Covariate Shocks:Evidence from Pakistan."

Abstract:This paper investigates the repayment behavior of microfinance borrowers in Pakistan using a unique dataset of about 45,000 installments/repayments covering 2,945 microfinance borrower households over the period 1998?2007. In early 2005, the microfinance institution for these borrowers adopted a new system with strict enforcement of punishment against repayment delays/defaults. This reform led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates, overcoming the previous problem of frequent defaults. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism?if one group member is hit by a negative shock and faces difficulty in repayment, the other members who are able to repay may decide to default as well, instead of helping the unlucky member?was encouraged by weak enforcement of dynamic incentives and responsible for the pre-reform failure. As evidence for this interpretation, we show that a borrower’s delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members’ repayment delays, beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks during the pre-reform period. The post-reform period is divided into two sub-periods by an earthquake in October 2005. Analysis of repayment behavior in the post-reform period yields the results that suggest that (1) the relative success under the new system was because of the suppression of strategic behavior among group members, thereby allowing joint liability schemes to function as individual lending schemes de facto and (2) the earthquake only marginally affected the new system in terms of repayment delays.

March 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 1.03mB]

 

No. 9

Yoshihisa Godo

"Estimation of Average Years of Schooling for Japan, Korea and the United States."

Abstract: This paper presents a new dataset of education stock for Japan, Korea and the US.  This dataset has three major advantages over exiting ones such as Barro and Lee (2000), Kim and Lau (1995) and Nehru, Swanson and Dubey (1995).  First, this paper's dataset covers nearly one hundred years while all the existing dataset do several decades in the postwar period.  Second, this paper provides more detailed information such as average years of schooling by gender, age and levels of education.  Third, more accuracy is guaranteed by exhaustive study on original dataset and careful treatments.The author hopes that future researchers use this paper's dataset as a 'public good' to analyze the macroeconomic role of education.

February 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 589kB]

 

No. 8

Takashi Kurosaki

"Vulnerability of Household Consumption to Village-level Aggregate Shocks in a Developing Country."

Abstract: Village-level aggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Then, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such natural disasters? This question is investigated in this study by using two-period panel data for the years

2001 and 2004 from rural Pakistan. We propose a methodology to infer the theoretical mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity of households in terms of their vulnerability, and focus on the difference between the across-household-type difference in marginal response to aggregate shocks and that in marginal response to idiosyncratic shocks. The empirical results obtained indicate that the sensitivity of consumption changes to shocks differs across household types, depending on the type of natural disasters. Moreover, land and credit access are effective in mitigating the ill-effects of various types of shocks. Household heads who are educated or elderly and households with a greater number of working members bear a larger burden of the village-level shocks; however, they are not vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. It is revealed that these patterns may be explained by the coexistence of unequal access to credit markets and risk sharing among heterogeneous households in terms of risk tolerance.

February 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 338kB]

 

No. 7

Yutaka Arimoto, Kentaro Nakajima and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Thoroughly revisied as Agglomeration or Selection? The Case of the Japanese Silk-Reeling Clusters, 1908-1915."

February 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 768kB]

 

No. 6

Takashi Kurosaki

"Compilation of Agricultural Production Data in Areas Currently in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from 1901/02 to 2011/02."

Abstract: This paper presents estimates for agricultural production data in areas currently in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from 1901/02 to 2001/02. A salient feature of these estimates is that they correspond to current international borders. The British Empire of India, which was broken up in 1947 (in the so-called “Partition” of the Indian subcontinent), covered areas of what are now India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Although a rich accumulation of statistical documents is available from the colonial period, there has been no rigorous attempt to compile statistics corresponding to the current borders during a period that includes years prior to 1947. This is because the Partition broke up the Empire of India not only at the provincial level (for which data are readily available) but also at the district or lower levels of administration. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap, focusing on production in crop farming in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Since neither the states of Pakistan and Bangladesh nor the concept of such nations existed during the early decades of the twentieth century, this exercise is hypothetical to some extent. Nevertheless, because farming activities are carried out on the soil of a region irrespective of its political designation, the estimates presented in this paper could shed new light on agricultural development in the three countries over the long term.

February 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 1.06mB]

 

No. 5

岡崎哲二

貿易自由化の政治経済学:戦後日本のケース

Abstract: This paper investigates the sequence of trade liberalization in postwar Japan and its determinants. As the Japanese government utilized the foreign exchange allocation system as a tool for the industrial policy, especially for protecting domestic industries, in the 1950s, trade liberalization was considered to give a serious impact on those industries, and designing the sequence of trade liberalization was an important policy issue. We indentified the timing of liberalization of each commodity using original official documents, and examined what factors affected on the timing. It was found that in designing the sequence of trade liberalization, the government took into account of competitiveness of domestic industries and survivability of small and medium-sized firms.

Januray 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 305kB]

 

No. 4

Masaki Nakabayashi and Tetsuji Okazaki

"The Role of the Courts in Economic Development: The Case of Prewar Japan."

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the role of the legal system in economic development, focusing on its relationship to the role of private mechanisms in contract enforcement. We use long-term prefecture-level panel data that cover the early stages of industrialization and urbanization in Japan. We found that industrialization increased the demand for civil lawsuits, but that this was conditional on urbanization. In other words, increased demand for civil suits occurred only where industrialization and urbanization simultaneously progressed. At the same time, the inefficiency of the legal system impeded industrial growth, but only conditional on urbanization. That is, the inefficiency of the legal system impeded industrialization only in urban areas. These findings suggest that community-based contract enforcement mechanisms worked in rural areas and that these mechanisms were replaced by the formal legal system as urbanization progressed and community ties declined.

Januray 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 158kB]

 

No. 3

高崎 善人

途上国における災害援助物資の村内分配--血族社会の相互扶助と階層

要旨: 開発途上国での自然災害援助において,援助物資の村の中での分配は,村による自己分配,したがって村の制度と統治に依存する.本稿は,村内分配メカニズムとして,相互扶助と社会階層を検証する.フィジー農村部で独自に収集した家計調査データをもとに,救援・早期復旧フェーズ(食糧援助)と復旧・復興フェーズ(家屋建設資材援助)を比較する.援助が私的リスクシェアリングの一部として分配される場合,援助物資がいかに被災者に届いているかというターゲティング精度それ自体にはあまり意味がなく,私的移転(労働および現金・現物)と合わせた災害対処力こそが重要となる.血族関係に基づく相互扶助と社会階層が相互に関連して援助物資の分配が行われる結果,有力者が優遇されることになる.

January 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 449kB]

 

No. 2

Tue Gorgens, Xin Meng and Rhema Vaithianathan

"Stunting and Selection Effects of Famine: A Case Study of the Great Chinese Famine."

Abstract: Many developing countries experience famine. If survival is related to height, the increasingly common practice of using height as a measure of well-being may be misleading. We devise a novel method for disentangling the stunting from the selection effects of famine. Using data from the 1959–1961 Great Chinese Famine, we find that taller children were more likely to survive the famine. Controlling for selection, we estimate that children under the age of five who survived the famine grew up to be 1 to 2 cm shorter. Our results suggest that average height is potentially a biased measure of economic conditions during childhood.

October 2010 [ダウンロード:PDF 311kB]

 

No. 1

Takashi Kurosaki

"Targeting the Vulnerable and the Choice of Vulnerability Measures: Review and Application to Pakistan."

Abstract: In this paper, the concept of vulnerability of the poor’s welfare and its practical measures are scrutinized in order to derive implications for targeting poverty reduction policies toward vulnerable households. As illustration, various measures of vulnerability proposed in the literature are applied to a panel dataset collected in rural Pakistan. The empirical results show that different vulnerability rankings can be obtained depending on the choice of the measure. By utilizing these measures, we can identify who and which region is more vulnerable to a particular type of risk. This kind of information is useful in targeting poverty reduction policies. Since the nature of vulnerability is diverse, it is advisable to use the whole vector of various vulnerability measures.

October 2010 [ダウンロード:PDF 275kB]

 

No. 26

Fumiharu Mieno and Hisako Kai

"Do Subsidies Enhance or Erode the Cost Efficiency of Microfinance? Evidence from MFI Worldwide Micro Data."

Abstract: A recent issue in the microfinance literature is whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) are financially sustainable without a subsidy as a prerequisite for competition policy or commercialization processes.  Although some recent studies have proposed relevant theoretical frameworks, empirical analyses are scarce. Using financial data for MFIs across a panel of 1791 observations for 2003?2006, we estimate a cost function for the MFIs and a measure of inefficiency using the stochastic frontier cost approach, and then examine the effects of subsidies, operating age and other possible factors as determinants of efficiency. We find that subsidies are generally not an impediment to cost efficiency; instead, they are generally utilized to improve cost efficiency.  We also find that the effect of a subsidy on efficiency is larger for younger MFIs, suggesting that subsidies for these institutions are effectively utilized for intensifying initial technology investment or hu  man resource development. The findings are consistent with the arguments that stress the importance of subsidies for the initial stage of development of MFIs, and partially contradictory to the claims that the subsidies generally erode MFIs’ financial sustainability.

March 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 175kB]

 

No. 25

Yoshito Takasaki

"How is disaster aid allocated within poor villages?"

Abstract: How disaster aid is allocated within poor villages is little understood. This paper examines risk-sharing institutions and social hierarchies as village self-allocation mechanisms. Original survey data from Fiji contain rich information about cyclone damage, traditional kin status, and aid allocations over post-disaster phases, at both household and kin-group levels. The paper shows under what conditions the performance of targeting aid to victims can significantly differ from overall risk-sharing outcomes determined by private transfers and aid (i.e., targeting gap). Elite domination in aid allocation can occur not only for given damage, but also in targeting on damage (i.e., targeting bias).

March 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 244kB]

 

No. 24

Takashi Kurosaki

"Urban Transportation Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Delhi Metro's Impact on the Cycle Rickshaw Rental Market."

Abstract: Based on a primary survey of cycle rickshaw pullers and rickshaw owners in Delhi, India, this paper estimates the causal impact of the opening and extension of Delhi Metro on the rental rates of cycle rickshaws. The cycle rickshaw rental market provides employment opportunities for unskilled, assetless workers who have migrated from rural areas because of poverty. A change in this market is thus expected to affect urban and rural poverty. Controlling for unobservable area characteristics using house tax information, we identify the causal impact depending on when Metro stations opened over the past decade. The regression results indicate that of the 1.6 percentage point increase in rental rates per km associated with a reduction in distance to a Metro station, approximately 1.0 point is attributable to the causal effect. Thus, Delhi Metro has increased the demand for cycle rickshaw services, which is a pro-poor consequence of the infrastructural investment.

March 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 229kB]

 

No. 23

草処基・丸健・高島正憲

昭和恐慌からの農村復興期における農家の資産蓄積行動:農林省第3期農家経済調査パネルデータによる分析

要旨: 本稿は,1931年から1941年にかけて農林省が行った農家経済調査から抽出した個票データをパネルデータとして利用し,当時の農家世帯の資産蓄積行動についての試論的分析を行う.分析期間は昭和恐慌によるショックからの回復期にあたり,農家は回復する農家余剰を各資産にどのように配分するかという問題に直面していた.分析の結果,経営面積は,先行研究が指摘するように2町歩程度に収斂する傾向にあったが,主に世帯構造の変化に合わせて調整されており,農地の所有構造には影響されていなかった.また,現金・準現金,動物,現物などの比較的流動性の高い資産の蓄積を重視し,固定性の高い資産への投資には積極的ではなかった.その背景に,農家の予備的貯蓄行動があった可能性が指摘された.

March 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 1.78mB]

 

No. 22

岡崎 哲二

経営者、社外取締役と大株主は本当は何をしていたか?:東京海上・大正海上の企業統治と三菱・三井

Abstract: This paper addresses a fundamental question on corporate governance, “What did corporate executives, outside directors and large shareholders really do ?” Although this question is essential, it has not been fully addressed in the literature, basically due to the constraint of relevant materials. This paper overcomes this problem by using a detailed diary written by Hachisaburo Hirao, who worked for many large companies, including Tokyo Marine and Fire Insurance Co. and Taisho Marine and Fire Insurance Co. in prewar Japan. In this diary he described in detail how corporate executives, outside directors and large shareholders thought and acted. Based on this diary and other related materials, it is revealed that in Tokyo Marine and Fire Insurance Co. and Taisho Marine and Fire Insurance Co., planning and implementation of managerial policies were basically entrusted to their corporate executives. This means that there existed agency relationships between shareholders and corporate executives. Meanwhile, the agency problem was resolved through a voice mechanism from outside directors representing large shareholders and large shareholders themselves to corporate executives. Outside directors and large shareholders indeed gave advice, pressure and ratification on managerial policies. These findings imply that these companies were governed by a typical Anglo-Saxon mode of corporate governance.

October 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 498kB]

 

No. 21

Tetsuji Okazaki and Michiru Sawada

"Interbank Networks in Prewar Japan: Structure and Implications."

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the structure and implications of interbank networks in prewar Japan, focusing on director interlocking. We find that approximately half the banks had at least one connection with another bank through director interlocking, and that a bank that had connections with other banks was less likely to fail than a bank without a network. The quality of networks also matters in the sense that the failure probability of a bank with a network was negatively associated with the profitability of the connected banks. On the other hand, there is no strong evidence of financial contagion through networks. In addition, networks of director interlocking contributed to the stabilization of the financial system through coordinating bank mergers.

July 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 344kB]

 

No. 20

Yoshihisa Godo

"A New Database on Education Stock in Taiwan."

Abstract: This paper provides long-term detailed estimates for Taiwan’s education stock. The average number of years of schooling per person by gender, age group, and level and type of education are estimated for 1888–1940 and 1947–2000.  This is the first extension of Godo’s (2011) dataset, which contains nearly 100-year annual estimates on education stock for Japan, Korea, and the US. The definition and methodology in this paper follow those of Godo (2011).

February 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 229kB]

 

No. 19

黒崎 卓・和田一哉

南アジア農業の長期変動とその空間的特徴

要旨: 本稿では、南アジア農業の長期変動を、マクロおよびセミマクロ(県:district)レベルでの空間的特徴に注目して検討する。具体的には、農地利用集約度、食糧穀類に占める米・小麦作付比率、総作付面積に占める非食糧穀類作付比率、および主要穀類・豆類の作付パターンに着目し、1965年から1994年の県レベルのインド農業について分析を行った。分析結果からは、米作付の内陸へのシフト、UP州東部の西UP型化、メイズ産地の分散化、雑穀減少トレンドから外れる地域(オリッサ内陸部のシコクビエなど)の存在、ヒヨコマメ産地の南下など、既存研究に見られない空間的変化が明らかになった。また作付パターンの初期条件と降水量、農地利用集約度、農地灌漑率を用いて各県を似通ったグループに分類する作業を行った結果は、既存の地域区分と大きく異なる区分が得られた。この新たな区分の方が、州境や既存の農業地域区分よりも、作付パターン変化の県間差異に関する説明力が高い面がある。

January 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 9.39mB]

 

No. 18

Yasuyuki Sawada, Yuki Higuchi, Kei Kajisa, Nobuhiko Fuwa, Esther B. Marciano, and Jonna P. Estudillo

"The East Laguna Village: Four Decades of Studies in a Filipino Village."

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of a rich set of studies spanning the past four decades and focusing on a village in the Philippines, where recurrent surveys have been conducted by Yujiro Hayami, Masao Kikuchi, and their associates and successors. It describes the kind of information collected through successive surveys and summarizes what has been learned from those surveys. It is found that the village surveys contributed to the understanding of the dynamics of the agrarian economy and village community mechanisms. Remaining research issues to be further explored for the village economy include remittance, financial transactions among villagers, and risk-coping strategies.

January 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 350kB]

 

No. 17

Yuko Mori and Takashi Kurosaki

"Does Political Reservation Affect Voting Behavior? Empirical Evidence from India."

Abstract: Using microdata from the National Election Study of the 2004 parliamentary elections in India, we empirically examine the impact of political reservation for disadvantaged castes and tribes on voting behavior. We find that in a reserved constituency, where only members of the disadvantaged castes can stand for election, voters of the disadvantaged castes are encouraged to vote. On the other hand, the system of constituency reservation does not have any impact on the turnout of voters belonging to other groups, including relatively upper caste voters. These voters, however, tend to change political party to vote for in reserved constituencies. These findings imply that there is a general acceptance of political reservation in the Indian electoral system.

September 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 205kB]

 

No. 16

Yutaka Arimoto, Kentaro Nakajima, and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Productivity Improvement in the Specialized Industrial Clusters: The Case of the Japanese Silk-Reeling Industry."

Abstract: We examine two sources of productivity improvement in the specialized industrial clusters. Agglomeration improves the productivity of each plant through positive externalities, shifting plant-level productivity distribution to the right. Selection expels less productive plants through competition, truncating distribution on the left. By analyzing the data of the early twentieth century Japanese silk-reeling industry, we find no evidence confirming a right shift in the distribution in clusters or that agglomeration promotes faster productivity growth. These findings imply that the plant-selection effect was the source of higher productivity in the Japanese silk-reeling clusters.

December 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 768kB]

 

No. 15

Ken Miura, Hiromitsu Kanno, and Takeshi Sakurai

"Livestock Transactions as Coping Strategies in Zambia:New Evidence from High-Frequency Panel Data."

Abstract: This study re-examines the buffer stock hypothesis regarding livestock by taking into account differences in wealth level, asset types, and periods after a shock. This paper takes advantage of a unique panel data set of agricultural households in Southern Province, Zambia. The data were collected by weekly interviews of 48 sample households from November 2007 to December 2009, covering two crop years in which an unusually heavy rainfall event took place. If we consider delayed responses to the heavy rain shock, our econometric analyses support the buffer stock hypothesis for cattle as well as small livestock. Overall, this paper suggests that conventional annual data sets used by existing literature may miss the period-dependent transactions of assets after a shock.

December 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 604kB]

 

No. 14

Yutaka Arimoto

"Participatory Rural Development in 1930s Japan: The Economic Rehabilitation Movement."

Abstract: This paper studies an early participatory rural development program implemented during the 1930s in Japan. This program selected several villages each year to draft and implement their own original development plans. I discuss the implications of the features of the program on its effectiveness. A detailed baseline survey conducted by the villagers themselves helped them to objectively diagnose their economic situations and understand their issues. The plans defined clear numerical targets, allowing them to share goals and monitor progress. The implementation of the plan was reinforced by frequent communication and monitoring among neighbors and by an incentive scheme that involved competition within a village. I use a village-level panel dataset from the Hyogo prefecture to examine the effects, under the difference-in-differences strategy. I find suggestive evidence that the program helped foster the adoption of cattle raising and diversify agricultural production.

September 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 248kB]

 

No. 13

Hidayat Ullah Khan, Takashi Kurosaki, and Ken Miura

"The Effectiveness of Community-Based Development in Poverty Reduction: A Descriptive Analysis of a Women-Managed NGO in Rural Pakistan."

Abstract: To assess the targeting performance of community-based development activities and deduce the impact of such activities on poverty reduction, we implemented a survey of a non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. A distinct characteristic of this NGO is that it is managed mostly by women and its interventions are conducted through community-based organizations (COs), most of whose members are also female. This characteristic is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. Descriptive analyses of village, CO, and household level data shows that the NGO was able to target poorer villages. Villages with COs are characterized by lower adult literacy rates, lower availability of basic amenities, and higher susceptibility to natural disasters. With regard to household-level welfare indicators—such as consumption, women’s empowerment, children’s school enrolment, and the weight-for-age of infants—we found that the consumption levels of CO member households tended to be lower than that of households in non-CO villages. However, the difference between CO member households and non-member households in CO villages was insignificant, possibly owing to the mixing of the selection effect (i.e., poorer households are served by the NGO) and the causal effect of interventions on poverty reduction. On women’s empowerment and child schooling, CO member households tend to perform better than other households, suggesting the favorable impact of the interventions and/or the self-selection of such households vis-à-vis program participation.

September 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 517kB]

 

No. 12

Takashi Kurosaki, Humayun Khan, Mir Kalan Shah, and Muhammad Tahir

"Natural Disasters, Relief Aid, and Household Vulnerability in Pakistan: Evidence from a Pilot Survey in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa."

Abstract: Based on a pilot survey, we analyze the damages caused by floods in Pakistan, 2010, the distribution of aid, and the extent of recovery at the household level. With regard to the nature of damages, we show that flood damages had both between-village and within-village variation, and damages to houses, land (crops), livestock, and other business assets were not highly correlated. In the distribution of aid from outside, we again find substantial between-village and within-village variation − the aid distribution across villages appeared well-targeted toward the severely affected villages, while aid within villages was targeted toward households with larger house damages, but not toward households with larger damages to land, crop, or other assets. The positive aid response to house damages and the negative aid response to the initial wealth level were found but the marginal response of aid to these characteristics was not large. With regard to the recovery from flood damages, we find that aid recipients did not show higher or lower recovery than non-recipients, especially for house damages, which could be due to mixing of a recovery-promoting effect of aid and a selection effect of aid toward households that have more difficulty in recovery. We also show that households who had initially fewer assets and hit by larger flood damages had more difficulty in recovery.

August 2011 [ダウンロード:PDF 366kB]

 

No. 42

Robert Cull, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and Jonathan Morduch

"Banks and Microbanks."

Abstract: We combine two datasets to examine whether the scale of an economy’s banking system affects the profitability and outreach of microfinance institutions. We find evidence that competition matters. Greater bank penetration in the overall economy is associated with microbanks pushing toward poorer markets, as reflected in smaller average loans sizes and greater outreach to women. The evidence is particularly strong for microbanks that rely on commercial-funding, use traditional bilateral lending contracts (rather than group lending methods favored by microfinance NGOs), and take deposits. We consider plausible alternative explanations for the correlations, including relationships that run through the nature of the regulatory environment and the structure of the banking environment, but we fail to find strong support for these alternative hypotheses.

February 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF766kB]

 

No. 40

Ryo Kambayashi

"The Role of Public Employment Services in a Developing Country: The Case of Japan in the Twentieth Century."

Abstract: Like all developed and developing economies, Japan struggled with labor market issues in the process of industrialization. The Public Employment Service (PES) was probably the only countermeasure of the Japanese government before 1938, since other labor market policies such as minimum labor standard, unemployment insurance, and unionization were highly restricted by the political climate. In this article, we discuss the importance of the institutional arrangements of the PES by examining the developing stage of the Japanese labor market. In Japan, the PES was first institutionalized officially by the Employment Exchange Act in 1921. In the wake of the Kanto earthquake disaster in 1923, the PES played a substantial role in the recovery process, which implies the capacity of the PES to reduce unemployment even in a developing economy. However, under normal economic circumstances during the 1910s and 1920s, the institutional arrangement of the PES—namely, the financial backbone of the government and the nationwide network—was not effective as shown by anecdotes and ad hoc surveys. The statistical analysis of the matching function clearly shows that the PES, at least during the 1920s, had a fundamental problem—lacking long-term relations with other economic agents. Finally, improvements were made in the PES during the 1930s to cope with the economic crisis from the Great Depression. Such improvements were realized by incorporating already-existing networks of organizations that spontaneously emerged at the grassroots level. By 1938, when the Employment Exchange Act was revised to abolish private agencies, some PES centers had already absorbed nearby private networks and the matching technique of the PES was almost the same as that of private agencies. An ad hoc physical and financial investment by the government may not lead to the provision of efficient public services, and it is important to recognize that labor market policies are based on a long-term relationship among the PES, job seekers, and employers.

March 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF453kB]

 

No. 39

Takashi Kurosaki

"Dynamics of Household Assets and Income Shocks in the Long-run Process of Economic Development: The Case of Rural Pakistan."

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of assets held by low-income households facing various types of income shocks in pre- and post-independence Pakistan. Focusing on the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province, NWFP), we first investigate the long-run data at the district level beginning from 1902. The results show that the population of livestock, the major asset of rural households, experienced a persistent decline after crop shocks due to droughts, but did not respond much to the Great Depression. In the post-independence period, crop agriculture continued to be vulnerable to natural disasters, although less substantially, while the response of livestock to such shocks was indiscernible from district-level data. To examine microeconomic mechanisms underlying such asset dynamics, we analyze a panel dataset collected from approximately 300 households in three villages in the NWFP during the late 1990s. The results show that the dynamics of household landholding and livestock is associated with a single long-run equilibrium. When human capital is included, the dynamics curve changes its shape but is not ufficiently nonlinear to produce statistically significant multiple equilibriums. The size of livestock holding was reduced in all villages hit by macroeconomic stagnation, while land depletion was reported only in a village with inferior access to markets. The patterns of asset dynamics ascertained from historical and contemporary analyses are consistent with limited but improving access to consumption smoothing measures in the study region over the century.

March 2013 (revised in April 2013) [ダウンロード:PDF1.29mB]

 

No. 38

Yutaka Arimoto, Takeshi Sakurai, Mari Tanaka, and Ralandison Tsilavo

"Rice Trading in Madagascar: Report on Rice Trader Survey 2011."

 

March 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF 1.18mB]

 

No. 37

Takashi Kurosaki and Hidayat Ullah Khan

"Household Vulnerability to Wild Animal Attacks in Developing Countries:Experimental Evidence from Rural Pakistan."

Abstract: Based on a three-year panel dataset of households collected in rural Pakistan, we first quantify the extent to which farmers are vulnerable to attacks by wild boars; we then examine the impact of an intervention on households’ capacity to reduce related income losses. A local nongovernmental organization implemented the intervention as a randomized controlled trial at the beginning of the second survey year.This experimental design enabled us to cleanly identify the impact of the intervention. We find that the intervention was highly effective in eliminating the crop-income loss of treated households in the second year, but that effects were not discernible in the third year. The finding from the third year could be due to the high implicit cost incurred by the households in implementing the treatment. Regarding the impact of the intervention on a number of consumption measures, the difference-in-difference estimate for the impact on consumption was insignificant in the second year, but highly positive in the third year when estimated without other controls. A part of this consumption increase was because of changes in remittance inflows. The overall results indicate the possibility that treatment in the absence of subsidies was costly for households due to hidden costs, and hence, the income gain owing to the initial treatment was transient.

March 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF 503kB]

 

No. 36

Kazuya Wada

"Changes in Employment Structures and Investments in Children's Education: Evidence from Rural India."

Abstract: This study investigates the effects of changes in non-agricultural sectors in India on investments in children's education. By using data from the Census of India (1981, 1991, and 2001) and the India Human Development Survey 2005 (IHDS), this study seeks to capture changes in Indian economic situation for the two decades between 1981 and 2001 and examine the effects of those changes on children's educational attainments in 2005. The results of empirical analysis suggest that changes in the first and second decades have different characteristics in terms of expansion among the non-agricultural sectors. In addition, estimation results imply that the expansion of non-agricultural sectors in the 1990s have had positive effects on investments in girls' education, leading to the alleviation of gender disparity in education. However, it should be noted that such expansion may aggravate income inequality in the future because it adversely affects children from poor households.

March 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF 676kB]

 

No. 35

Tuan-Hwee Sng and Chiaki Moriguchi

"Taxation and Public Goods Provision in China and Japan before 1850."

February 2013

(This paper has been thoroughly revised as DP No. 58, "Asia's LittleDivergence: State Capacity in China and Japan before 1850"  [ダウンロード:PDF 1.08mB])

 

No. 34

Ayako Matsuda, Takashi Kurosaki, and Yasuyuki Sawada

"Rainfall and Temperature Index Insurance in India: Project Documentation."

Abstract: As an empirical research on weather index insurance in developing countries, we conducted surveys on rainfall and temperature index insurance products in Madhya Pradesh, India. The rainfall insurance covers drought and excess rain during the monsoon season, while the temperature insurance covers against excess heat during the dry season. This paper documents the details of surveys implemented under this project and describes the key variables collected from them.

February 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF 785kB]

 

No. 33

Hangtian Xu and Kentaro Nakajima

"Highways and Development in the Peripheral Regions of China."

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of highways (Gaosu Gonglu) on economic devel- opment in China’s county-level cities from 1998 to 2007, a period in which China experienced sharp growth in highway mileage, using a micro level data set on industry and highway place- ment and the double difference propensity score matching method. After extracting the core regions, empirical estimates indicate that highway placement promotes industrial development in related cities with higher output and more investments, and these results are robust to two different checks. However, county-level cities more than 300 km away from large cities do not benefit from new highways. Furthermore, highways tend to promote the development of heavy industry but not that of light industry. Labor productivity exhibits few positive effects.

January 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF 1.22mB]

 

No. 32

Jonathan Morduch, Shamika Ravi, and Jonathan Bauchet

"Failure vs. Displacement: Why an Innovative Anti-Poverty Program Showed No Net Impact."

December 2012

 

Revised as "Substitution Bias and External Validity: Why an Innovative Anti-Poverty Program Showed No Net Impact"(PRIMCED DP No.44)

July 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF 834kB]

 

No. 31

Yoko Sakai, Jonna P. Estudillo, Nobuhiko Fuwa, Yuki Higuchi, and Yasuyuki Sawada

"Do Natural Disasters Affect the Poor Disproportionately? The Case of Typhoon Milenyo in the Rural Philippines."

Abstract: This paper illustrates the sharp contrast in welfare impacts between the rich and the poor caused by typhoon Milenyo in a Philippine village. Fish price dropped sharply after a large volume of cultured fish was set loose due to the damage caused to fish pens near the village, leading to positive net welfare gains among the wealthy. Among the poor, however, the negative effects of food (other than fish) price increase outweighed the positive benefit of the fish price decrease, and the poor non-agricultural households (who receive their income by cash rather than by rice) were the most severely hit.

November 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 307kB]

 

No. 30

Tetsuji Okazaki

"Productivity Change and Mine Dynamics: The Coal Industry in Japan during World War II."

Abstract: In the 1930s and 1940s, the Japanese coal industry experienced huge fluctuations in production and labor productivity. In this paper, I explore the micro-aspects of labor productivity change in the coal industry during World War II, using mine-level data compiled from official statistics and original documents of the Coal Control Association (Sekitan Toseikai). The coal industry in this period was characterized by dynamic changes in market structure: a number of mines entered and exited the industry, and shares of incumbent mines changed substantially. These mine dynamics had substantial productivity implications. In the early stage of the war, many low productivity mines entered the industry, which reduced average labor productivity considerably. The government and the Coal Control Association implemented a policy to concentrate resources and production on efficient mines during the war, which curbed the decline in average labor productivity. Despite the deteriora  ting environment during the war, coal production in Japan was maintained fairly well. One of the factors that made this possible was the policy of resource reallocation.

November 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 271kB]

 

No. 29

有本寛・藤栄剛・仙田徹志

1930年代日本の農家負債『農家負債に関する調査』のミクロデータ分析

要旨: 本稿は,『農家負債に関する調査』の個票データを用いて,1930年代日本の農家負債に関する基礎的な事実を,家計・負債レベルで定量的に示した.負債の用途は,階層によって異なっており,高収入層や自作農は生産・投資目的で借り入れるのに対して,低収入層は消費目的の負債が多かった.金利等の融資条件は,借り手の階層や負債の属性による違いはなく,貸し手間の差が大きかった.同時に,収入や資産に乏しい家計は,銀行を中心に各借入先からの借り入れ確率が低い傾向にあることから,貸し手と借り手のマッチングは融資条件よりもアクセスで調整され,信用制約があった可能性が示唆される.また,頼母子講のなかでも過半を占めた「親有り講」は,特定の「親」の生産・投資目的の資金調達を社会的関係のなかで支援する性質を持ち,現代のソーシャル・ファンドに類似した特徴を持っていたといえる.

October 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 1.41mB]

 

No. 28

Takashi Kurosaki, Asit Banerji, S. N. Mishra, and A. K. Mangal

"Unorganized Enterprises and Rural-Urban Migration in India: The Case of the Cycle Rickshaw Sector in Delhi."

Abstract: In 2010/11, we conducted a survey of cycle rickshaw pullers and rickshaw owners located throughout Delhi, India. We drew a sample of 132 rickshaw owners (called Thekedars) and a representative sample of 1,320 rickshaw pullers. The survey results show that most rickshaw pullers in Delhi are short-term, temporary migrants. Most rickshaw pullers are poorly educated. The majority migrated from villages in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Social networks that extend from places of origin to final destinations facilitate migration. More than 90% of rickshaw pullers operate rental rickshaws owned by Thekedars. Rickshaw pulling involves hard physical labor. On average, a rickshaw puller works 11 hours per day, over 27 days per month. We estimate the average daily earning to be Rs. 260. A typical migrant rickshaw puller may save more than Rs. 2,000 per month. He may send these funds to his village home. This is the migrant rickshaw pullers’ contribution to rural  poverty reduction. Thekedars provide the fulcrum upon which the whole cycle rickshaw transportation system of Delhi turns. In addition to the rental of cycle rickshaws to migrant rickshaw pullers, Thekedars manage the administrative and legal aspects of their rickshaw rental business throughout the year. Their occupational history shows that many of them became a Thekedar from low beginnings, including rickshaw pulling and rickshaw repair jobs. On average, a Thekedar owns 56 rickshaws, approximately two-thirds of which are rented on a daily basis. Pullers pay a fixed rental fee per day at an average rate of Rs. 34. Net of business expenditures, monthly rickshaw rental income per Thekedar is estimated at approximately Rs. 5,600 for small and medium Thekedars and Rs. 41,000 for large Thekedars. The internal rate of return on investment over 5-6 years of the working life of a rickshaw is estimated to range between 18% and 62% per year. Currently, the rules and regulations on t  he cycle rickshaw sector in Delhi are based on the principal of the one-rickshaw, one-owner, one-driver, one-license policy. However, this policy does not reflect the real-life situations we encountered in our survey. We recommend that Thekedars be endowed with legal entity status. This would result in the healthy development of urban transport in Delhi.

July 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 452kB]

 

No. 27

Takashi Kurosaki, Humayun Khan, Mir Kalan Shah, and Muhammad Tahir

"Household-level Recovery after Floods in a Developing Country: Further Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan."

Abstract: Based on a second survey of villages and households one year after a pilot survey, we analyze the household-level recovery process from damage due to floods in Pakistan in 2010. With regard to initial recovery from flood damage, we find that households who had initially fewer assets and were hit by greater flood damage had more difficulty in recovering. After one year, the overall recovery had improved, but there remained substantial variation across households regarding the extent of recovery. Initially rich households were associated with faster recovery than other households at the time of the second survey, but the speed of recovery declined during the most recent year. The overall pattern appears to indicate that the village economy was turning towards the initial regime, where the income distribution was characterized by a large mass of households whose welfare and asset levels were around the income poverty line and a small middle class of households whose asset levels  were sufficiently high to ensure a welfare level above the poverty line.

April 2012 [ダウンロード:PDF 196kB]

 

 

No. 55

Kongpasa Sengsourivong and Fumiharu Mieno

"Impacts of Savings and Credit Union Programs on Household Welfare in Laos: Case Study of the Vientiane Vicinity during the mid-2000s."

Abstract: Based on original household survey on the six villages in Vientiane vicinity in 2005, the paper investigates the impact of Savings and Credit Union (SCU) programs on household income, expenditure and asset, applying the methodology of Coleman's (1999)  study on Thailand to address placement bias and endogeneity problem. The results revealed that SCU programs brought certain changes; SCUs boosted educational expenditures implying activation of human capital formation, increased the house asset suggesting villagers' investment reflected by possible business activation, and brought a possible shift in income sources from traditional agriculture to livestock raising. The paper interprets these results different from Coleman's (1999) in two possible ways; First the Laotian case is to an extent, free from a bias associated with seed capital allocation, therefore is more suitable to capture the effect than Thailand, and second it is since the stage of financial accessibility in Laos is far less developed than in Thailand.

March 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF310kB]

 

No. 54

Takashi Kurosaki and Hidayat Ullah Khan

"Community-Based Development and Aggregate Shocks in Developing Countries: The Experience of an NGO in Pakistan."

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates whether a community-based development (CBD) approach is effective in mitigating the ill effects of aggregate shocks. The analysis is based on a three-year panel dataset of approximately 600 households in rural Pakistan where a local NGO has implemented CBD interventions. The results show that the mitigating effect was absent when the control group included both non-member households in villages under CBD interventions and households in villages without such interventions. On the other hand, within the former type of villages, a strong spillover effect from member to non-member households was found, mitigating the ill effects of aggregate shocks. Furthermore, CBD interventions accompanied by micro infrastructure construction or microcredit provision were found to be effective in mitigating the ill effects. These results suggest the possibility that whether a CBD approach mitigates aggregate shocks depends on the type of intervention and the nature of market failures.

March 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF484kB]

 

No. 53

Akifumi Ado and Takashi Kurosaki

"Motives for Sharing in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Jakarta."

Abstract: We implemented laboratory experiments in Jakarta, Indonesia, to identify motives for sharing, including baseline altruism, directed altruism, sanction aversion, and reciprocity. The study area is located on the periphery of the Metropolis of Jakarta, many of whose residents are migrants and are closely connected with informal institutions such as Arisan, a rotating savings and credit association in Indonesia. Using data from sample households, the experimental results show that transfers based on baseline altruism accounted for the largest amount.Because the difference in the transferred amounts arising from the revelation of dictators' identities was statistically insignificant, we combined the four motives into two: preference-related motives (baseline and directed altruism) and incentive-related motives (sanction aversion and reciprocity) for the examination of their association with real world behavior regarding sharing. The empirical results suggest the importance of incentive-related motives in explaining variations in the amount of income transfers received from and sent to others.

March 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF810kB]

 

No. 52

Fumiharu Mieno and Chansathith Chaleunsinh

"Function of Savings and Credit Unions in Laos: From a Village-SCU Survey in Vientiane Vicinity."

Abstract: Savings and Credit Unions (SCUs), a type of self-help group, have been rapidly forming in Laotian villages since the early 2000s.This paper investigates their characteristics, activities, and exogenous determinants of their activity based on an original questionnaire survey.It presents a descriptive analysis of endogenous factors such as member ratios and deposit and loan amounts and exogenous factors such as SCUs' age, location, and village characteristics with descriptive analyses.The results revealed that SCUs' membership is formed early in their operating history and remains generally unchanged. Loans for production purposes are a larger percentage of SCUs' lending during their early years, shifting to consumption loans in later years. SCUs' performance features differ after five years in operation and in villages that have diversified away from agriculture. Economic diversification and SCUs' sustainability are related to immigrants settling in villages since the Laotian civil war. We conclude that SCUs serve obvious social and economic purposes and that prospects for their sustainability are greater in villages with diversified economies.

March 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF208kB]

 

No. 51

神門 善久

フィリピンの平均就学年数の推計

要旨:日本、米国、韓国、台湾の約百年にわたる国別の教育ストック推計と比較可能なデータとして、生産年齢人口(15~64歳)を対象にフィリピンの教育ストック推計をおこなった。教育に関する詳細な基礎資料をマニラの官庁や図書館を訪ねて収集した。それらをもとに、年齢別、教育段階別の就学者数を詳細に推計し、学歴と人口変動(死亡や国外との移出入)は相関しないという仮定のもとに、過去の就学者数を積み上げて人口で割ることで平均就学年数を計算した。1903~2000年の各年について、教育段階別の平均就学年数の推計結果を提示した。ただし、推計作業の細部において要改善点が残されており、今後の作業課題を明記した。

March 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF652kB]

 

No. 50

岡崎 哲二

三菱商事における店舗ネットワークの構造と機能:1928-36 年度

Abstract: This paper explores the structure and function of the intra-firm trade network in Mitsubishi Corporation (Mitsubishi Shoji) from 1928 to 1936. In this period, Mitsubishi Co. substantially expanded its global branch network. Using original documents of Mitsubishi Co., we obtained the data on the trade flow between every pair of the headquarters and branches in 1928 and 1936. While the headquarters in Tokyo maintained its position as the central hub in the intra-firm trade network in this period, some major branches, including Dalian in China, grew to be the subsidiary hubs, which resulted in a change in the network structure.

November 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF938kB]

 

No. 49

Megumi Naoi and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Political Economy of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Postwar Japan."

Abstract: How did post-War newer democracies, whose governments faced both pressures from vested special interests and voters, achieve trade liberalization ? Exploiting the case of trade liberalization in 1960s Japan, this paper addresses this question. Because the benefits and costs of trade liberalization are unequally distributed among the population, generating winners and losers, trade liberalization is inherently a highly political issue. The Japanese government and the LDP leaders used two tactics to build a coalition of legislators for trade liberalization. While they used sequencing of liberalization to buy off support from legislators of the Upper-House, they relied on side-payments for legislators of the Lower-House. This strategy choice was consistent with the difference in the sizes of electoral districts between the Upper-House and the Lower-House.

November 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF167kB]

 

No. 48

Kozo Kiyota and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Effects of Industrial Policy on Productivity: The Case of Import Quota Removal during Postwar Japan."

Abstract: This paper attempts to provide a systematic analysis on the effects of industrial policy in postwar Japan. Among the various types of Japanese industrial policy, this paper focuses on the removal of de facto import quotas through the foreign exchange allocation system. Analyzing a panel of 100 Japanese manufacturing industries in the 1960s, we find that the effects of the quota removal on productivity were limited: the effects were significantly positive but it took time before they appeared. On the other hand, the effects of tariffs on labor productivity were negative although these were insignificant. One possible reason for this is that the Japanese government increased tariff rates before removing the import quotas, and maintained high tariff rates afterward. As a result, the effects of the Japanese industrial policy in the 1960s might be smaller than widely believed in the Japanese economic history literature.

October 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF617kB]

 

No. 47

黒崎 卓・ヒダヤット・ウッラー・ハーン

開発途上国におけるコミュニティ動員型開発と集計的ショック:パキスタンのNGOの事例より(ロングバージョン)

要旨: 開発途上国の家計は、集計的な経済ショックによってマイナス成長が生じた場合に、生活水準を顕著に低下させてしまう可能性が強い。コミュニティ動員型開発(community-based development: CBD)は、そのような場合に生活水準低下を緩和する効果があるのか、効果があるのはどのような条件の場合なのか? 本稿は、CBDを進めてきたパキスタンのNGOを事例に、3か年約600家計のパネルデータを用い、この問いを実証的に検討する。分析結果から、非メンバー家計と比較した場合に全体としては集計的ショックを緩和する効果がなかったことが判明した。ただし、同じ村内での非メンバー家計へのスピルオーバー効果ゆえに、メンバーがいない村との比較では集計的ショック緩和効果があった可能性も示唆された。また、ショック緩和効果が異質である可能性を考慮し、住民組織の特徴や活動分野を取り入れた分析からは、小規模インフラ建設型介入、マイクロクレジット供与の場合などに緩和効果が検出された。BD型介入が集計的ショックの悪影響を緩和するかどうかは、介入の性格や、地域における市場の失敗との対応に依存する可能性が示唆される。

January 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF1.30mB]

 

No. 46

Takashi Kurosaki

"Long-term Agricultural Growth in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from1901/02 to 2001/02."

Abstract: This paper investigates the growth performance of agriculture in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh in the twentieth century. The use of unusually long-term data that correspond to the current borders for the period 1901-2002 and the focus on crop shifts as a source of growth distinguish this study from the existing ones. The empirical results show a sharp discontinuity between the pre- and the post- independence periods in all three countries: growth rates in total output, labor productivity, and land productivity rose from zero or very low figures to significantly positive levels, which were sustained throughout the post-independence period. The improvement in aggregate land productivity explained the most of this output growth, of which approximately one third was attributable to shifts to more lucrative crops.

November 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF408kB]

 

No. 45

Hangtian Xu and Kentaro Nakajima

"The Role of Coal Mine Regulation in Regional Development."

Abstract: In response to the high mortality rates and low productivity in coal mining, China began regulating coal mines in the 1990s, which has reshaped its coal economy. We empirically investigate the relationship between coal mine regulation and economic growth in China. Using two difference-in-difference approaches to compare the pre- and post-regulation periods, as well as regions with and without rich coal endowment, we find that regulation positively affects regional economy. This result is further illustrated using an OLS estimation that uses mortality rate in coal mining as a proxy for measuring the quality of regulation. The impacts are not limited only to the intra-coal industry but also spillover to the economy of related regions by relieving the crowding-out effects of coal abundance, that is, resource abundance tends to crowd out investment, human capital and innovation in non-resource sectors and thus hinders economic growth.

September 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF496kB]

 

No. 44

Jonathan Morduch, Shamika Ravi, and Jonathan Bauchet

"Substitution Bias and External Validity: Why an Innovative Anti-poverty Program Showed no Net Impact."

Abstract: The net impact of development interventions can depend on the availability of close substitutes to the intervention. We analyze a randomized trial of an innovative anti-poverty program in South India which provides “ultra-poor” households with inputs to create a new, sustainable livelihood. We find no statistically significant evidence of lasting net impact on consumption, income or asset accumulation. Instead, income from the new livelihood substituted for earnings from wage labor. A very similar intervention made a large difference elsewhere in South Asia, however, where wage labor alternatives were less compelling. The analysis highlights the roles of substitution bias and dropout bias in shaping evaluation results and delimiting external validity.

July 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF834kB]

 

No. 43

David Roodman and Jonathan Morduch

"The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence."

Abstract: We replicate and reanalyse the most influential study of microcredit impacts (Pitt and Khandker, 1998). That study was celebrated for showing that microcredit reduces poverty, a much hoped-for possibility (though one not confirmed by recent randomized controlled trials). We show that the original results on poverty reduction disappear after dropping outliers, or when using a robust linear estimator. Using a new program for estimation of mixed process maximum likelihood models, we show how assumptions critical for the original analysis, such as error normality, are contradicted by the data. We conclude that questions about impact cannot be answered in these data.

June 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF1.28mB]

 

No. 41

Ryo Kambayashi and Takao Kato

"Good jobs, Bad jobs, and the Great Recession: Lessons from Japan’s Lost Decade."

Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence on the long-term effect of the Great Recession on the quality of jobs, in particular whether the Great Recession results in the replacement of “good jobs” (characterized by high wage/benefit, job security, and opportunity for training and development) with “bad jobs” (characterized by the lack of such attributes). Unfortunately there is not yet sufficiently long data from the recent Great Recession that enable researchers to study fully its long-term consequences for the labor market structure. To this end, we examine Japan’s Lost Decade, the original Great Recession that occurred two decades ago. First, we find no evidence for a shift of male employment toward “bad jobs” during the Lost Decade. Second, for women we find a compositional change from self-employment to nonstandard employment which is, however, found to be a shift from “bad jobs” to “bad jobs” rather than “good jobs” to “bad jobs”. As such, our findings cast doubt on the popular narrative of the long-term negative effect on job quality of the Great Recession. However, for one particular group of Japanese workers—youth, we find compelling evidence in support of the popular narrative. Especially all progresses that young women made in enhancing their share of standard employment during Japan’s high growth decade in the 1980s are found to be entirely undone during the Lost Decade. The Great Recession affects the quantity of jobs and policy makers ought to pay immediate attention to such quantity effects. However, the Great Recession may also have more long-term structural effects on the quality of jobs, and such long-term effects may be heterogeneous, concentrating on a specific group of workers such as youth.

June 2013 [ダウンロード:PDF327kB]

 

No. 71

Takeshi Maru, Motoi Kusadokoro, and Masanori Takashima

"Productivity and the Growth of Japanese Agriculture in the 1930s: A Panel Data Analysis Using a Survey of the Farm Household Economy."

Abstract: In the early 1930s, the Showa Depression, which commenced in 1930 following the onset of the Great Depression in 1929, had substantial effects on urban and rural economies in Japan, and agricultural production stagnated in the 1930s. Many studies have analyzed Japanese agriculture by using production functions. However, there is variance among them. Additionally, many studies were based on the assumption of constant returns to scale (CRS) because of data limitations. Utilizing a detailed micro-level database, we re-examined agricultural production in this period. The results show that the values of the production elasticity of factors scored near the lowest of those shown by previous studies and that CRS is not supported. The results also show that the trend of the change in total factor productivity is in line with that of previous studies.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF388kB]

 

No. 70

Kentaro Nakajima and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Expanding Empire and Spatial Distribution of Economic Activities: The Case of Colonization of Korea by Japan in the Prewar Period."

Abstract: After the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, Japan annexed Korea in 1910. We exploit this event as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of improved market access on the population growth. It is found that the tariff reduction raised the growth rates of population, and that the impact of the tariff reduction was significantly larger in the areas close to the removed border between Japan and Korea. As predicted by spatial economics theory, market proximity was indeed a determinant of the spatial distribution of economic activities. In the context of economic history, our findings suggest that it is important to reconsider the economic consequences of imperialism from the angle of spatial economics.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF376kB]

 

No. 69

Chiaki Moriguchi

"Educational Status of Non-biological Children in the United States: New Evidence from Federal Census Microdata."

Abstract: A substantial number of American children reside in adoptive or step households. Empirical research has found strong correlations between family structure and child outcomes in modern data, showing that non-biological children have lower outcomes than biological children. Few studies have examined how non-biological children fared in historical times, however. In this study, I use the public use samples of federal census microdata in 1900-1930 and 2000 to compare educational status of adopted, step, and biological children in the U.S. I find that, for both whites and blacks, non-biological children experienced major educational disadvantages compared to biological children in 1900-1930 even after controlling for child and parental characteristics. By 2000, however, the educational disadvantages of white and black adopted children have been greatly reduced or even reversed in some measures. For stepchildren, educational disadvantages have persisted for both whites an  d blacks, but their extent was smaller than in 1900-1930. For Asian children, I find no significant difference in educational status among adopted, step, and biological children in 2000 once we control for household characteristics. These findings are consistent with major transformations of adoption practices and stepfamily formation in the U.S. during the twentieth century that improved parental incentives and resources to invest in education of non-biological children.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF822kB]

 

No. 68

Chiaki Moriguchi

"Pragmatic to Sentimental Adoption? Child Adoption in the United States, 1880-1930."

Abstract: Child adoption, as an alternative to childbearing, is a widely accepted means of creating a family in the U.S. today. According to the historical literature, the modern form of adoption was a U.S. innovation in the mid-nineteenth century that had profound implications for the welfare of both adopted children and adoptive parents. Due to the lack of quantitative data, however, we know little about the extent and nature of child adoption in the historical U.S. How widely was adoption practiced before its widespread social acceptance? Who adopted children, and what motivated them to adopt? In this study, using U.S. federal census microdata (IPUMS) in 1880-1930 and 2000, I first document the prevalence of adoption and the characteristics of adoptive households and trace their changes over the twentieth century. I then investigate the commonly held hypothesis that adoption evolved from "pragmatic" to "sentimental" adoption during the early twentieth century, as adoptive  parents began to demand children not for their labor value but for the utility of parenting itself. My empirical analysis indicates that, in 1880-1930, farm households were more likely to adopt children for pragmatic reasons, while households with greater socio-economic status were more likely to practice sentimental adoption.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF1.12mB]

 

No. 67

Ken Miura and Takeshi Sakurai

"The Impact of Formal Insurance Provision on Farmer Behavior: Evidence from Rural Zambia."

Abstract: This study presents empirical evidence of changes in farmer behavior after offering them weather index insurance contracts. To quantify the impacts of insurance on agricultural decision-making, this study makes use of the random allocation of free insurance to small-scale farmers in rural Zambia, while endogenous insurance demands are also investigated. Our empirical results show that the provision of insurance leads farmers to sow maize seeds earlier --- a practice known to increase maize yield, but which is riskier in terms of rainfall variability. In addition, it is found that insured farmers enlarge the maize field size and use more fertilizer; that is, the provision of insurance encourages farmers to invest in maize production in a risky environment. We also report suggestive but interesting evidence that weather index insurance could substitute for small-livestock holdings, a conventional self-insurance tool used to mitigate income variation.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF527kB]

 

No. 66

Jun Goto, Yasuyuki Sawada, Takeshi Aida, and Keitaro Aoyagi

"Incentives and Social Preferences: Experimental Evidence from a Seemingly Inefficient Traditional Labor Contract?"

Abstract: This paper investigates the interplay between economic incentives and social norms in formulating rice planting contracts in the Philippines. In our study area, despite the potential for pervasive opportunistic behaviors by workers, a fixed-wage (FW) contract has been dominant for rice planting. To account for the use of this seemingly inefficient contractual arrangement, we adopt a hybrid experimental method of framed field experiments by randomized controlled trials (RCT), in which we randomly assign three distinct labor contracts---FW, individual piece rate (IPR), and group piece rate (GPR)--- and artefactual field experiments to elicit social preference parameters. Through analyses of individual workers' performance data from framed field experiments and data on social preferences elicited by artefactual field experiments, three main empirical findings emerge. First, our basic results show the positive incentive effects in IPR and, equivalently, moral hazard problems in FW, which are consistent with standard theoretical implications. Second, non-monetary incentives seem to play a significant role under FW: while social preferences such as altruism and guilt aversion play an important role in stimulating incentives under FW, introducing monetary incentives crowds out such intrinsic motivations, and other non-monetary factors such as positive peer effects significantly enhance incentives under a FW contract. Finally, as alternative hypotheses, our empirical results are not necessarily consistent with the hypothesis of the interlinked contract of labor and credit transactions in mitigating moral hazard problems, the optimality of FW contract under large effort measurement errors, and the intertemporal incentives arising from performance-based contract renewal probabilities. Hence, considering the interplay of intrinsic motivations and monetary incentives as well as the monetary costs of mitigating moral hazard and free-riding problems through IPR, we may conclude that seemingly perverse traditional contractual arrangements might be socially efficient.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF1.10mB]

 

No. 65

Alice Ouyang and Saumik Paul

"Skilled Emigration, Wages and Real Exchange Rate in a Globalized World."

Abstract: Building on a simple analytical model, we provide cross-country empirical evidence from 67 countries that the net skilled emigration appreciates bilateral real exchange rates in source countries. Channels of causality, when Law of One Price (LOOP) holds, are through "spending effect" and "resource allocation effect", analogous to the remittance-based Dutch disease effect. Pricing-to-market model allows pass-through for both tradable and nontradable prices when LOOP is violated. Internal (relative price of tradable to nontradable) price explains about 60% of the RER appreciation, which is mostly driven by the outcomes on developing countries. The outcomes are robust across different levels of skilled emigration, alternative model specifications and withstand placebo tests with unskilled emigration.

March 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF648kB]

 

No. 64

Hidayat Ullah Khan and Takashi Kurosaki

"Targeting Performance of Community-based Development Interventions: An Econometric Analysis of a Women-Focused and Women-Managed Non-Governmental Organization in Rural Pakistan."

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the community-based development (CBD) approach effectively reaches out to the poor. The CBD approach is expected to improve targeting performance by reducing leakage to the non-poor, elite capture, and program placement costs. However, the existing literature lacks comprehensive and innovative ways to assess the targeting performance involving women. We thus examine the targeting performance of CBD interventions adopted by a women-focused and women-managed non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. The NGO intervenes through female organizations called Community Organisations (COs), which is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. To assess the targeting performance, we employ rich village- and household-level survey data and compare villages with and without COs on the one hand and member and non-member households on the other hand. The comparison is in terms of poverty and vulnerability. The study shows that the NGO, with proactive involvement of women, has been able to successfully target poorer and environmentally vulnerable villages as well as households.

February 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF291kB]

 

No. 63

Alberto J. Iniguez-Montiel and Takashi Kurosaki

"Limits to Economic Growth and the Effect of Redistribution in Mexico."

Abstract: In this study, we examine the effectiveness of growth and redistribution in reducing poverty in Mexico during the period from 1992 to 2012, using repeated cross-section household data. We first decompose the observed changes in poverty reduction into components arising from growth, improved income distribution, and heterogeneous inflation. We find the component of inflation to be non-negligible, as the inflation experienced by the poor was higher than the national average. The decomposition also shows improvement in income distribution to be the main contributor to poverty reduction in Mexico. In the second part of our analysis, we compile a unique panel dataset at the state level from the household data and estimate a system of equations that characterize the dynamic relationship between growth, inequality, and poverty, being careful to avoid spurious correlation arising from data construction.

The GMM regression results show that Mexican states are characterized by income convergence and inequality convergence, and that poverty reduction in Mexican states is highly responsible to income and inequality levels in the previous period. This implies that once a small perturbation occurs in a state that reduces the inequality level, the state is expected to experience sustained poverty reduction in subsequent periods, which is consistent with the findings from the decomposition.

February 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF0.98mB]

 

No. 62

Tetsuji Okazaki and Michiru Sawada

"Measuring the Extent and Implications of Corporate Political Connections in Prewar Japan."

Abstract: This paper investigates the extent, determinants, and implications of the political connections of firms at the peak of democracy in prewar Japan, identifying a firm as politically connected if one of its directors was simultaneously a member of the House of Representatives. We analyze the data of publicly traded companies in the periods before and after the 1928 and 1930 general elections. It is found that almost 20% of publicly traded companies had political connections through politician directors. Regressions analyses reveal that smaller or badly performing firms and firms in the electric utilities and railroad industries, where government licenses were important, were more likely to have political connections. Furthermore, we find that the stock returns of firms that had new political connections improved from the pre-election period to the post-election period.

November 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF189kB]

 

No. 61

Serguey Braguinsky, Atsushi Ohyama, Tetsuji Okazaki, and Chad Syverson

"Acquisitions, Productivity, and Profitability: Evidence from the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry."

Abstract: We explore how changes in ownership and managerial control affect the productivity and profitability of producers. Using detailed operational, financial, management, and ownership data from the Japanese cotton spinning industry at the turn of the last century, we find a more nuanced picture than the straightforward "higher productivity buys lower productivity" story commonly appealed to in the literature. Acquired firms' production facilities were not on average any less physically productive than the plants of the acquiring firms before acquisition, conditional on operating. They were much less profitable, however, due to consistently higher inventory levels and lower capacity utilization-differences which reflected problems in managing the inherent uncertainties of demand in the industry. When these less profitable plants were purchased by more profitable establishments, the acquired plants saw drops in inventories and gains in capacity utilization that raised both their productivity and profitability levels, consistent with acquiring owner/managers spreading their better demand management abilities across the acquired capital.

October 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF633kB]

 

No. 60

Takashi Kurosaki and Kazuya Wada

"Spatial Characteristics of Long-term Changes in Indian Agricultural Production: District-Level Analysis, 1965-2007."

Abstract: In this paper, we comprehensively describe spatial patterns of long-term changes in Indian agriculture at the district level. Variables of concern include the land use intensity, the ratio of rice and wheat in areas under foodgrains, the ratio of non-foodgrains in gross cultivated area, the fertilizer use intensity, and individual crop shares in gross cultivated areas. As a byproduct of the descriptive analysis, we propose a new regional classification of Indian districts based on their similarity in rainfall, the initial cropping and land-use patterns, and the initial condition and changes in irrigation. The proposed classification has a reasonable explanatory power in describing the spatial patterns of long-term changes at the district level.

January 2015 [ダウンロード:PDF2.01mB]

 

No. 59

Takashi Kurosaki and Hidayat Ullah Khan

"Impact of Human Resource Development Training on Crop Damages by Wild Animals in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Rural Pakistan."

Abstract: Based on a four-year panel dataset of households collected in rural Pakistan, we examine the impact of an intervention on households’capacity to reduce income losses due to attacks by wild boars. A local NGO implemented the intervention as a randomized controlled trial at the beginning of the second year. We find that the intervention was highly effective in eliminating the crop-income loss in the second year, but that effects disappeared in the third and fourth years. Our finding suggests the difficulty in technology transfer through the training or the high implicit cost incurred by the households in implementing the treatment. Therefore, the intervention was not sustainable at the household level. Nevertheless, due to spillover effects, the intervention could have been cost-effective at the project level.

August 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF312kB]

 

No. 58

Tuan-Hwee Sng and Chiaki Moriguchi

"Asia's Little Divergence: State Capacity in China and Japan before 1850."

Abstract: This paper explores the role of state capacity in the comparative economic development of China and Japan. Before 1850, both nations were ruled by stable dictators who relied on bureaucrats to govern their domains. We hypothesize that agency problems increase with the geographical size of a domain. In a large domain, the ruler's inability to closely monitor bureaucrats creates opportunities for the bureaucrats to exploit taxpayers. To prevent overexploitation, the ruler has to keep taxes low and government small. Our dynamic model shows that while economic expansion improves the ruler's finances in a small domain, it could lead to lower tax revenues in a large domain as it exacerbates bureaucratic expropriation. To test these implications, we assemble comparable quantitative data from primary and secondary sources. We find that the state taxed less and provided fewer local public goods per capita in China than in Japan. Furthermore, while the Tokugawa shogunate's tax revenue grew in tandem with demographic trends, Qing China underwent fiscal contraction after 1750 despite demographic expansion. We conjecture that a greater state capacity might have prepared Japan better for the transition from stagnation to growth.

August 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF1.08mB]

 

No. 57

Pierre van der Eng

"Mining and Indonesia’s Economy: Institutions and Value Adding, 1870-2010."

Abstract: Indonesia has long been a major producer of minerals for international markets. Starting in 2014, it implemented legislation banning exports of unprocessed minerals and requiring producers to invest in processing facilities to add more value before export. This paper establishes what light past experiences in Indonesia with mining sheds on this recent development. It quantifies and discusses the growth of mining production in Indonesia since 1870. It analyses the institutional arrangements that past governments used to maximise resource rents and domestic value adding. The paper finds that production and exports of mining commodities were long dominated by oil, but increased and diversified over time, particularly since the 1960s. The development of the mining sector depended on changes in market prices, mining technologies and the cost of production, but particularly on the institutional arrangements that guided the decisions of foreign investors to commit to mining production and processing in Indonesia.

August 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF798kB]

 

No. 56

尾高 煌之助

ミャンマー工業化論:序論的考察

 

August 2014 [ダウンロード:PDF1.47mB]

 

PRIMCEDで現在収集しつつある経済発展データベースを紹介します。

戦前日本、アジア途上国、アフリカ途上国それぞれについて、データのカバレッジに関する説明、データを用いたディスカッション・ペーパー(DP)やニュースレター(NL)記事へのリンクなどを記載してあります。

今後、ウェブ上のアクセスを拡張する計画です。

現時点でデータについてもっと詳細やアクセスについて知りたい場合は、DPやNLの著者に直接、あるいはPRIMCED事務局まで(mail: primced[@]ier.hit-u.ac.jp、[]を除いてご送信下さい)連絡願います。

 

1. PRIMCED Database for Pre-war Japan

戦前期農家経済調査DB

  【概略】 DP#23 NL#4

民事訴訟DB

  【概略】 DP#4 NL#3

 

2. PRIMCED Database for Contemporary Developing Countries in Asia

アジア長期教育統計DB

  【概略】 DP#9, DP#20 NL#4

南アジア長期農業統計DB

  【概略】 DP#6, DP#19

フィリピン東ラグナ稲作農村40年DB 

  【概略】 DP#18, DP#31

インド・デリー市のサイクルリキシャ部門DB

  【概略】 DP#24, DP#28

パキスタン・ハイバルパフトゥーンハー州のコミュニティー動員型開発DB

  【概略】  DP#13 NL#1

パキスタン・ハイバルパフトゥーンハー州の洪水復興DB

  【概略】 DP#12, DP#27

 

3. PRIMCED Database for Contemporary Developing Countries in Africa

ブルキナ・ファソ 長期農家家計パネルデータDB

  【概略】 NL#5

ザンビア 高頻度農家家計パネルデータDB

  【概略】 DP#15(改定・刊行版) NL#1

 

4. Database compiled under sister projects of PRIMCED(リンクのみ)

経済制度研究センター大株主・役員DB

http://cei.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/Japanese/database/Okabunushidbs/database2.html

Hi-Stat Social Science Database Network

http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/histatdb/

 

 

   ニュースレター第9号がアップされました。(H27/1/6)

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第9号 2015年1月

   目次   デリーの寒い冬とインフルエンザ〔黒崎 卓〕...1
                【連載】調査活動報告...2-7
                No. 13 開発途上国における農村研究とフィールドワークのすすめ:

                          インド・ケーララ州での経験【前編】〔後藤 潤〕

                国際会議のご案内...7

                ディスカッション・ペーパー ...8

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第8号 2013年10月

   目次   南アジアでの農村調査〔黒崎 卓〕...1
                【連載】調査活動報告 〔ニュースレター編集部〕...2-6
                No. 11 速水村の教え〔澤田 康幸〕

                No. 12 その後の速水村〔加治佐 敬〕

                ディスカッション・ペーパー ...6

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第7号 2013年5月

   目次   中間評価向け報告執筆を終えて〔黒崎 卓〕...1-2
                国際ワークショップ報告〔ニュースレター編集部〕...2-4
                ディスカッション・ペーパー ...4

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第6号 2013年2月

   目次   デリーでの国際会議 2 件 〔黒崎 卓〕 ...1

                【連載】調査活動報告 ...2-6

                No.9 データ収集の倫理 〔神林 龍〕

                No.10 ナイジェリアにおける妊婦・乳幼児の予防健康管理に関する無作為化実験

                          〔高崎 善人〕

                国際ワークショップのご案内 ...6

                ディスカッションペーパー ...6

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第5号 2012年9月

   目次   暑い夏 〔黒崎 卓〕 ...1-2

                全体会議報告〔ニュースレター編集部〕 ...2-3

       【連載】調査活動報告 ...4-11

                No.7 空間経済学と経済発展 〔中島 賢太郎〕

                No.8 ブルキナ・ファソにおける調査について 〔櫻井 武司〕

                ディスカッションペーパー ...11

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第4号 2012年6月

   目次    全体会議に向けて 〔黒崎 卓〕 ...1-2

                【連載】調査活動報告 ...2-5

                No.5 マカピリ 〔神門 善久〕

                No.6 「戦前期農家経済調査」データベース編成作業について 〔高島 正憲〕

                全体会議のご案内 ...6

        ディスカッションペーパー ...6

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第3号 2012年3月

   目次    プロジェクト2 年目の総括 〔黒崎 卓〕 ...1

                【連載】調査活動報告 ...2-4

                No.3 法と経済史:比較経済発展論への歴史的アプローチ 〔岡崎 哲二〕

                No.4 フィールド調査こぼれ話(インド編) 〔松田 絢子〕

                ディスカッションペーパー ...5

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第2号 2011年11月

   目次    国際ワークショップ報告 〔ニュースレター編集部〕 ...1-3
                ディスカッション・ペーパー ...4
                プロジェクト活動日誌 ...4

 

■ PRIMCED ニュースレター 第1号 2011年5月

   目次    プロジェクト初年度総括・2 年目の展望 〔黒崎卓〕 ...1
                海外調査活動報告(パキスタン・ザンビア)〔Hidayat Ullah Khan・木附晃実〕 ...2-4
                ディスカッション・ペーパー ...5
                プロジェクト活動日誌 ...5

リンク

バナー バナー