primced

No. 11

Takashi Kurosaki

"Wages in Kind and Economic Development: Historical and Contemporary Evidence from Asia."

Abstract: This paper investigates the function of various modes of wage payment, focusing on the role of in-kind wages in enhancing household food security when markets are underdeveloped. Historical records from Asian countries, including pre-war Japan and colonial India, demonstrate the importance of in-kind wage payment in the initial phase of economic development. However, there is a paucity of theoretical explanations of in-kind wages in terms of their function and rationale in existing literature. This paper therefore develops a theoretical model that explains labor supply under different labor contracts, by incorporating considerations of food security as the main explanation for in-kind wages. The model predicts that when food security considerations are important for workers, owing to poverty and thin food markets, they tend to work more under contracts where wages are paid in kind (food) than under contracts where wages are paid in cash. This prediction is supported by empirical evidence from rural Myanmar. Estimation results of the reduced-form determinants of labor supply show that workers supply more labor for work paid in kind when the share of staple food in the workers’ household budget is higher and the farmlands on which they produce food themselves are smaller.

March 2011 [Download：PDF 390kB]

No. 10

Takashi Kurosaki and Hidayat Ullah Khan

"Vulnerability of Microfinance to Strategic Default and Covariate Shocks:Evidence from Pakistan."

Abstract:This paper investigates the repayment behavior of microfinance borrowers in Pakistan using a unique dataset of about 45,000 installments/repayments covering 2,945 microfinance borrower households over the period 1998?2007. In early 2005, the microfinance institution for these borrowers adopted a new system with strict enforcement of punishment against repayment delays/defaults. This reform led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates, overcoming the previous problem of frequent defaults. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism?if one group member is hit by a negative shock and faces difficulty in repayment, the other members who are able to repay may decide to default as well, instead of helping the unlucky member?was encouraged by weak enforcement of dynamic incentives and responsible for the pre-reform failure. As evidence for this interpretation, we show that a borrower’s delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members’ repayment delays, beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks during the pre-reform period. The post-reform period is divided into two sub-periods by an earthquake in October 2005. Analysis of repayment behavior in the post-reform period yields the results that suggest that (1) the relative success under the new system was because of the suppression of strategic behavior among group members, thereby allowing joint liability schemes to function as individual lending schemes de facto and (2) the earthquake only marginally affected the new system in terms of repayment delays.

March 2011 [Download：PDF 1.03mB]

No. 9

Yoshihisa Godo

"Estimation of Average Years of Schooling for Japan, Korea and the United States."

Abstract: This paper presents a new dataset of education stock for Japan, Korea and the US.  This dataset has three major advantages over exiting ones such as Barro and Lee (2000), Kim and Lau (1995) and Nehru, Swanson and Dubey (1995).  First, this paper's dataset covers nearly one hundred years while all the existing dataset do several decades in the postwar period.  Second, this paper provides more detailed information such as average years of schooling by gender, age and levels of education.  Third, more accuracy is guaranteed by exhaustive study on original dataset and careful treatments.The author hopes that future researchers use this paper's dataset as a 'public good' to analyze the macroeconomic role of education.

February 2011 [Download：PDF 589kB]

No. 8

Takashi Kurosaki

"Vulnerability of Household Consumption to Village-level Aggregate Shocks in a Developing Country."

Abstract: Village-level aggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Then, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such natural disasters? This question is investigated in this study by using two-period panel data for the years 2001 and 2004 from rural Pakistan. We propose a methodology to infer the theoretical mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity of households in terms of their vulnerability, and focus on the difference between the across-household-type difference in marginal response to aggregate shocks and that in marginal response to idiosyncratic shocks. The empirical results obtained indicate that the sensitivity of consumption changes to shocks differs across household types, depending on the type of natural disasters. Moreover, land and credit access are effective in mitigating the ill-effects of various types of shocks. Household heads who are educated or elderly and households with a greater number of working members bear a larger burden of the village-level shocks; however, they are not vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. It is revealed that these patterns may be explained by the coexistence of unequal access to credit markets and risk sharing among heterogeneous households in terms of risk tolerance.

February 2011 [Download：PDF 338kB]

No. 7

Yutaka Arimoto, Kentaro Nakajima and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Thoroughly revisied as Agglomeration or Selection? The Case of the Japanese Silk-Reeling Clusters, 1908-1915."

February 2011 [Download：PDF 768kB]

No. 6

Takashi Kurosaki

"Compilation of Agricultural Production Data in Areas Currently in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from 1901/02 to 2011/02."

Abstract:This paper presents estimates for agricultural production data in areas currently in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from 1901/02 to 2001/02. A salient feature of these estimates is that they correspond to current international borders. The British Empire of India, which was broken up in 1947 (in the so-called “Partition” of the Indian subcontinent), covered areas of what are now India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Although a rich accumulation of statistical documents is available from the colonial period, there has been no rigorous attempt to compile statistics corresponding to the current borders during a period that includes years prior to 1947. This is because the Partition broke up the Empire of India not only at the provincial level (for which data are readily available) but also at the district or lower levels of administration. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap, focusing on production in crop farming in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Since neither the states of Pakistan and Bangladesh nor the concept of such nations existed during the early decades of the twentieth century, this exercise is hypothetical to some extent. Nevertheless, because farming activities are carried out on the soil of a region irrespective of its political designation, the estimates presented in this paper could shed new light on agricultural development in the three countries over the long term.

February 2011 [Download：PDF 1.06mB]

No. 5

Tetsuji Okazaki

"Political Economy of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Postwar Japan." (in Japanese)

Abstract: This paper investigates the sequence of trade liberalization in postwar Japan and its determinants. As the Japanese government utilized the foreign exchange allocation system as a tool for the industrial policy, especially for protecting domestic industries, in the 1950s, trade liberalization was considered to give a serious impact on those industries, and designing the sequence of trade liberalization was an important policy issue. We indentified the timing of liberalization of each commodity using original official documents, and examined what factors affected on the timing. It was found that in designing the sequence of trade liberalization, the government took into account of competitiveness of domestic industries and survivability of small and medium-sized firms.

January 2011 [Download：PDF 305kB]

No. 4

Masaki Nakabayashi and Tetsuji Okazaki

"The Role of the Courts in Economic Development: The Case of Prewar Japan."

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the role of the legal system in economic development, focusing on its relationship to the role of private mechanisms in contract enforcement. We use long-term prefecture-level panel data that cover the early stages of industrialization and urbanization in Japan. We found that industrialization increased the demand for civil lawsuits, but that this was conditional on urbanization. In other words, increased demand for civil suits occurred only where industrialization and urbanization simultaneously progressed. At the same time, the inefficiency of the legal system impeded industrial growth, but only conditional on urbanization. That is, the inefficiency of the legal system impeded industrialization only in urban areas. These findings suggest that community-based contract enforcement mechanisms worked in rural areas and that these mechanisms were replaced by the formal legal system as urbanization progressed and community ties declined.

January 2011 [Download：PDF 158kB]

No. 3

Yoshito Takasaki

"Distributing disaster aid within the village: kinship, mutual help, and hierarchy."(in Japanese)

Abstract: Distributing natural disaster aid within villages in developing countries strongly relies on village institution and governance. This paper examines mutual help and social hierarchy as self-distribution mechanisms. Using original household survey data gathered in rural Fiji, the paper compares relief/early recovery phases (food aid) and recovery/reconstruction phase (housing construction materials). When aid is distributed as part of informal risk sharing, of central importance is not targeting performance - how well it is targeted toward victims - but coping capacity determined by both aid and private transfers. Kinship-based risk sharing and hierarchy interact with each other in distributing disaster aid, giving rise to elite domination.

Januray 2011 [Download：PDF 449kB]

No. 2

Tue Gorgens, Xin Meng and Rhema Vaithianathan

"Stunting and Selection Effects of Famine: A Case Study of the Great Chinese Famine."

Abstract: Many developing countries experience famine. If survival is related to height, the increasingly common practice of using height as a measure of well-being may be misleading. We devise a novel method for disentangling the stunting from the selection effects of famine. Using data from the 1959–1961 Great Chinese Famine, we find that taller children were more likely to survive the famine. Controlling for selection, we estimate that children under the age of five who survived the famine grew up to be 1 to 2 cm shorter. Our results suggest that average height is potentially a biased measure of economic conditions during childhood.

October 2010 [Download：PDF 311kB]

No. 1

Takashi Kurosaki

"Targeting the Vulnerable and the Choice of Vulnerability Measures: Review and Application to Pakistan."

Abstract: In this paper, the concept of vulnerability of the poor’s welfare and its practical measures are scrutinized in order to derive implications for targeting poverty reduction policies toward vulnerable households. As illustration, various measures of vulnerability proposed in the literature are applied to a panel dataset collected in rural Pakistan. The empirical results show that different vulnerability rankings can be obtained depending on the choice of the measure. By utilizing these measures, we can identify who and which region is more vulnerable to a particular type of risk. This kind of information is useful in targeting poverty reduction policies. Since the nature of vulnerability is diverse, it is advisable to use the whole vector of various vulnerability measures.

October 2010 [Download：PDF 275kB]

No. 26

Fumiharu Mieno and Hisako Kai

"Do Subsidies Enhance or Erode the Cost Efficiency of Microfinance?Evidence from MFI Worldwide Micro Data?"

Abstract:A recent issue in the microfinance literature is whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) are financially sustainable without a subsidy as a prerequisite for competition policy or commercialization processes.  Although some recent studies have proposed relevant theoretical frameworks, empirical analyses are scarce. Using financial data for MFIs across a panel of 1791 observations for 2003?2006, we estimate a cost function for the MFIs and a measure of inefficiency using the stochastic frontier cost approach, and then examine the effects of subsidies, operating age and other possible factors as determinants of efficiency. We find that subsidies are generally not an impediment to cost efficiency; instead, they are generally utilized to improve cost efficiency.  We also find that the effect of a subsidy on efficiency is larger for younger MFIs, suggesting that subsidies for these institutions are effectively utilized for intensifying initial technology investment or hu  man resource development. The findings are consistent with the arguments that stress the importance of subsidies for the initial stage of development of MFIs, and partially contradictory to the claims that the subsidies generally erode MFIs’ financial sustainability.

March 2012 [Download：PDF 175kB]

No. 25

Yoshito Takasaki

"How is disaster aid allocated within poor villages?"

Abstract: How disaster aid is allocated within poor villages is little understood. This paper examines risk-sharing institutions and social hierarchies as village self-allocation mechanisms. Original survey data from Fiji contain rich information about cyclone damage, traditional kin status, and aid allocations over post-disaster phases, at both household and kin-group levels. The paper shows under what conditions the performance of targeting aid to victims can significantly differ from overall risk-sharing outcomes determined by private transfers and aid (i.e., targeting gap). Elite domination in aid allocation can occur not only for given damage, but also in targeting on damage (i.e., targeting bias).

March 2012 [Download：PDF 244kB]

No. 24

Takashi Kurosaki

"Urban Transportation Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Delhi Metro's Impact on the Cycle Rickshaw Rental Market."

Abstract: Based on a primary survey of cycle rickshaw pullers and rickshaw owners in Delhi, India, this paper estimates the causal impact of the opening and extension of Delhi Metro on the rental rates of cycle rickshaws. The cycle rickshaw rental market provides employment opportunities for unskilled, assetless workers who have migrated from rural areas because of poverty. A change in this market is thus expected to affect urban and rural poverty. Controlling for unobservable area characteristics using house tax information, we identify the causal impact depending on when Metro stations opened over the past decade. The regression results indicate that of the 1.6 percentage point increase in rental rates per km associated with a reduction in distance to a Metro station, approximately 1.0 point is attributable to the causal effect. Thus, Delhi Metro has increased the demand for cycle rickshaw services, which is a pro-poor consequence of the infrastructural investment.

March 2012 [Download：PDF 229kB]

No. 23

Motoi Kusadokoro, Takeshi Maru, and Masanori Takashima

"Asset Accumulation Behavior of Rural Households in the Reconstruction Period following the Showa Depression: A Panel Data Analysis Using the Third Period MAF Survey of Farm Household Economy."(in Japanese)

Abstract: This paper analyzes asset accumulation behavior of rural households using panel data extracted from the survey of farm household economy from 1931 to 1941 conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The years we are concerned fall under the reconstruction period following the Showa Depression. During this period, farm households were confronted with the problem how they should allocate their farm surplus to each asset. The result shows that the operational land holding size was converging to the size around 2 Cho (approximately 19,835m2), as the previous literature indicated. Households mainly adjusted their operational farm size in response to changes in the household structure; however the land ownership structure did not affect the operational size. Households placed a greater emphasis on the accumulation of relatively high-liquid assets such as cash, quasi-money, animals, and in-kind stocks. In other words, they did not actively invest in fixed assets.

  Their choice indicates the existence of precautionary saving motive.

March 2012 [Download：PDF 1.75mB]

No. 22

Tetsuji Okazaki

"What Did Corporate Executives, Outside Directors and Large Shareholders Really Do ?: Corporate Governance of Tokyo Marine and Taisho Marine in Mitsubishi and Mitsui Zaibatsu."(in Japanese)

Abstract: This paper addresses a fundamental question on corporate governance, “What did corporate executives, outside directors and large shareholders really do ?” Although this question is essential, it has not been fully addressed in the literature, basically due to the constraint of relevant materials. This paper overcomes this problem by using a detailed diary written by Hachisaburo Hirao, who worked for many large companies, including Tokyo Marine and Fire Insurance Co. and Taisho Marine and Fire Insurance Co. in prewar Japan. In this diary he described in detail how corporate executives, outside directors and large shareholders thought and acted. Based on this diary and other related materials, it is revealed that in Tokyo Marine and Fire Insurance Co. and Taisho Marine and Fire Insurance Co., planning and implementation of managerial policies were basically entrusted to their corporate executives. This means that there existed agency relationships between shareholders and corporate executives. Meanwhile, the agency problem was resolved through a voice mechanism from outside directors representing large shareholders and large shareholders themselves to corporate executives. Outside directors and large shareholders indeed gave advice, pressure and ratification on managerial policies. These findings imply that these companies were governed by a typical Anglo-Saxon mode of corporate governance.

October 2011 [Download：PDF 430kB]

No. 21

Tetsuji Okazaki and Michiru Sawada

"Interbank Networks in Prewar Japan: Structure and Implications."

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the structure and implications of interbank networks in prewar Japan, focusing on director interlocking. We find that approximately half the banks had at least one connection with another bank through director interlocking, and that a bank that had connections with other banks was less likely to fail than a bank without a network. The quality of networks also matters in the sense that the failure probability of a bank with a network was negatively associated with the profitability of the connected banks. On the other hand, there is no strong evidence of financial contagion through networks. In addition, networks of director interlocking contributed to the stabilization of the financial system through coordinating bank mergers.

July 2011 [Download：PDF 344kB]

No. 20

Yoshihisa Godo

"A New Database on Education Stock in Taiwan."

Abstract: This paper provides long-term detailed estimates for Taiwan’s education stock. The average number of years of schooling per person by gender, age group, and level and type of education are estimated for 1888–1940 and 1947–2000.  This is the first extension of Godo’s (2011) dataset, which contains nearly 100-year annual estimates on education stock for Japan, Korea, and the US. The definition and methodology in this paper follow those of Godo (2011).

February 2012 [Download：PDF 229kB]

No. 19

Takashi Kurosaki and Kazuya Wada

"Spatial Patterns of Long-term Changes in South Asian Agriculture. (in Japanese)"

Abstract: In this paper, we describe spatial patterns of long-term changes in South Asian agriculture. We investigate the spatial configurations at the macro (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) and semi-macro (Indian districts) level. Variables of concern include the land use intensity, the ratio of rice and wheat in areas under foodgrains, the ratio of non-foodgrains in gross cultivated area, the fertilizer use intensity, and individual crop shares in gross cultivated areas. We also propose a new regional classification of Indian districts based on their similarity in the initial cropping and land-use patterns, rainfall, and the initial condition and changes in irrigation. The proposed classification better explains the spatial patterns of long-term changes at the district level than existing classifications.

Januray 2012 [Download：PDF 9.32mB]

No. 18

Yasuyuki Sawada, Yuki Higuchi, Kei Kajisa, Nobuhiko Fuwa, Esther B. Marciano, and Jonna P. Estudillo

"The East Laguna Village: Four Decades of Studies in a Filipino Village."

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of a rich set of studies spanning the past four decades and focusing on a village in the Philippines, where recurrent surveys have been conducted by Yujiro Hayami, Masao Kikuchi, and their associates and successors. It describes the kind of information collected through successive surveys and summarizes what has been learned from those surveys. It is found that the village surveys contributed to the understanding of the dynamics of the agrarian economy and village community mechanisms. Remaining research issues to be further explored for the village economy include remittance, financial transactions among villagers, and risk-coping strategies.

Januray 2012 [Download：PDF 350kB]

No. 17

Yuko Mori and Takashi Kurosaki

"Does Political Reservation Affect Voting Behavior? Empirical Evidence from India."

Abstract: Using microdata from the National Election Study of the 2004 parliamentary elections in India, we empirically examine the impact of political reservation for disadvantaged castes and tribes on voting behavior. We find that in a reserved constituency, where only members of the disadvantaged castes can stand for election, voters of the disadvantaged castes are encouraged to vote. On the other hand, the system of constituency reservation does not have any impact on the turnout of voters belonging to other groups, including relatively upper caste voters. These voters, however, tend to change political party to vote for in reserved constituencies. These findings imply that there is a general acceptance of political reservation in the Indian electoral system.

September 2011 [Download：PDF 205kB]

No. 16

Yutaka Arimoto, Kentaro Nakajima, and Tetsuji Okazaki

"Productivity Improvement in the Specialized Industrial Clusters: The Case of the Japanese Silk-Reeling Industry."

Abstract: We examine two sources of productivity improvement in the specialized industrial clusters. Agglomeration improves the productivity of each plant through positive externalities, shifting plant-level productivity distribution to the right. Selection expels less productive plants through competition, truncating distribution on the left. By analyzing the data of the early twentieth century Japanese silk-reeling industry, we find no evidence confirming a right shift in the distribution in clusters or that agglomeration promotes faster productivity growth. These findings imply that the plant-selection effect was the source of higher productivity in the Japanese silk-reeling clusters.

December 2011 [Download：PDF 768kB]

No. 15

Ken Miura, Hiromitsu Kanno, and Takeshi Sakurai

"Livestock Transactions as Coping Strategies in Zambia:New Evidence from High-Frequency Panel Data."

Abstract: This study re-examines the buffer stock hypothesis regarding livestock by taking into account differences in wealth level, asset types, and periods after a shock. This paper takes advantage of a unique panel data set of agricultural households in Southern Province, Zambia. The data were collected by weekly interviews of 48 sample households from November 2007 to December 2009, covering two crop years in which an unusually heavy rainfall event took place. If we consider delayed responses to the heavy rain shock, our econometric analyses support the buffer stock hypothesis for cattle as well as small livestock. Overall, this paper suggests that conventional annual data sets used by existing literature may miss the period-dependent transactions of assets after a shock.

December 2011 [Download：PDF 604kB]

No. 14

Yutaka Arimoto

"Participatory Rural Development in 1930s Japan: The Economic Rehabilitation Movement."

Abstract: This paper studies an early participatory rural development program implemented during the 1930s in Japan. This program selected several villages each year to draft and implement their own original development plans. I discuss the implications of the features of the program on its effectiveness. A detailed baseline survey conducted by the villagers themselves helped them to objectively diagnose their economic situations and understand their issues. The plans defined clear numerical targets, allowing them to share goals and monitor progress. The implementation of the plan was reinforced by frequent communication and monitoring among neighbors and by an incentive scheme that involved competition within a village. I use a village-level panel dataset from the Hyogo prefecture to examine the effects, under the difference-in-differences strategy. I find suggestive evidence that the program helped foster the adoption of cattle raising and diversify agricultural production.

September 2011 [Download：PDF 248kB]

No. 13

Hidayat Ullah Khan, Takashi Kurosaki, and Ken Miura

"The Effectiveness of Community-Based Development in Poverty Reduction: A Descriptive Analysis of a Women-Managed NGO in Rural Pakistan."

Abstract: To assess the targeting performance of community-based development activities and deduce the impact of such activities on poverty reduction, we implemented a survey of a non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. A distinct characteristic of this NGO is that it is managed mostly by women and its interventions are conducted through community-based organizations (COs), most of whose members are also female. This characteristic is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. Descriptive analyses of village, CO, and household level data shows that the NGO was able to target poorer villages. Villages with COs are characterized by lower adult literacy rates, lower availability of basic amenities, and higher susceptibility to natural disasters. With regard to household-level welfare indicators—such as consumption, women’s empowerment, children’s school enrolment, and the weight-for-age of infants—we found that the consumption levels of CO member households tended to be lower than that of households in non-CO villages. However, the difference between CO member households and non-member households in CO villages was insignificant, possibly owing to the mixing of the selection effect (i.e., poorer households are served by the NGO) and the causal effect of interventions on poverty reduction. On women’s empowerment and child schooling, CO member households tend to perform better than other households, suggesting the favorable impact of the interventions and/or the self-selection of such households vis-à-vis program participation.

September 2011 [Download：PDF 517kB]

No. 12

Takashi Kurosaki, Humayun Khan, Mir Kalan Shah, and Muhammad Tahir

"Natural Disasters, Relief Aid, and Household Vulnerability in Pakistan: Evidence from a Pilot Survey in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa."

Abstract: Based on a pilot survey, we analyze the damages caused by floods in Pakistan, 2010, the distribution of aid, and the extent of recovery at the household level. With regard to the nature of damages, we show that flood damages had both between-village and within-village variation, and damages to houses, land (crops), livestock, and other business assets were not highly correlated. In the distribution of aid from outside, we again find substantial between-village and within-village variation − the aid distribution across villages appeared well-targeted toward the severely affected villages, while aid within villages was targeted toward households with larger house damages, but not toward households with larger damages to land, crop, or other assets. The positive aid response to house damages and the negative aid response to the initial wealth level were found but the marginal response of aid to these characteristics was not large. With regard to the recovery from flood damages, we find that aid recipients did not show higher or lower recovery than non-recipients, especially for house damages, which could be due to mixing of a recovery-promoting effect of aid and a selection effect of aid toward households that have more difficulty in recovery. We also show that households who had initially fewer assets and hit by larger flood damages had more difficulty in recovery.

August 2011 [Download：PDF 366kB]

No. 27

Takashi Kurosaki, Humayun Khan, Mir Kalan Shah, and Muhammad Tahir

"Household-level Recovery after Floods in a Developing Country: Further Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan."

Abstract: Based on a second survey of villages and households one year after a pilot survey, we analyze the household-level recovery process from damage due to floods in Pakistan in 2010. With regard to initial recovery from flood damage, we find that households who had initially fewer assets and were hit by greater flood damage had more difficulty in recovering. After one year, the overall recovery had improved, but there remained substantial variation across households regarding the extent of recovery. Initially rich households were associated with faster recovery than other households at the time of the second survey, but the speed of recovery declined during the most recent year. The overall pattern appears to indicate that the village economy was turning towards the initial regime, where the income distribution was characterized by a large mass of households whose welfare and asset levels were around the income poverty line and a small middle class of households whose asset levels  were sufficiently high to ensure a welfare level above the poverty line.

March 2012 [Download：PDF 196kB]

e2013年度のディスカッションペーパーはありません

e2014年度のディスカッションペーパーはありません