| 日時 | 2025年10月10日(金) 17:10−18:40 |
|---|---|
| 場所 | 西キャンパス本館3４番教室 |
| 講演者1: | 松下幸敏(一橋大学・経済) "Cross-fitted Instrumental Variable Estimation with Many Instruments and Many Included Exogenous Regressors" 概要:This paper is concerned with estimation and inference on structural parameters in instrumental variable regression models that involve not only many weak instruments but also many included exogenous regressors. This setting is practically important to accommodate saturated specifications for proper interpretation as the local average treatment effect and fixed effect dummies, for example. We propose the cross-fitted instrumental variable estimator, establish its consistency and asymptotic normality under mild assumptions, and derive a consistent variance estimator for valid inference on the structural parameters. Simulation results illustrate desirable finite sample performances of the proposed method. |
| 講演者2: | 伏島光毅(一橋大学・HIAS) "Difference-in-Differences for Policy Learning" 概要:Difference-in-differences, one of the most commonly used research designs in empirical analyses of program evaluation, infers the ex post counterfactual of what would have happened, but does not inform ex ante policy choice of what we should do. This paper develops a framework of learning ex ante policy allocation in settings where available data are panel observational data with treatments allocated at group level. Assuming that the common trend of the potential outcomes conditional on individual's characteristics holds in the data, we study how to estimate an optimal treatment allocation policy for a group of individuals who are not yet exposed to the treatment. To allow for an environment in which the distribution of potential outcomes can differ between the periods that the data were obtained and the period that the policy will be implemented, we introduce an intermediate welfare criterion that can inform an optimal policy for the target group. We construct a sample analogue of the intermediate welfare using the available data and estimate an optimal policy for the target population by maximizing it. |
| 言語 | 日本語 |
| 幹事 | 本田敏雄 [経済学研究科] |
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