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Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 30-53 (2019)

“Regional Determinants of Fertility Growth in Russia: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach”
Ichiro Iwasaki (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University), Kazuhiro Kumo (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University)

The present study empirically examines the determinants of the fertility rate in Russia using a panel data of the federal entities from 2005 to 2015. The estimation results of a system GMM dynamic panel data model indicate that economic growth, potential employment opportunities, favorable management conditions of local businesses, opportunities for higher education, and quality of regional social capital and housing are positively correlated to its total fertility rate while the presence of Slavic races, immigration inflow, poverty, and environment risks negatively impact fertility. The study also found that the combination of factors that strongly affect the fertility rate significantly vary between different age groups and districts, which suggests an additional focus on the intergenerational and interregional heterogeneity to implement political measures is needed to counteract the population crisis in Russia.