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Abstract

Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 193-208 (2015)

“How Should We Estimate for Commercial Property Price Indexes?”
David Geltner (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Chihiro Shimizu (National University of Singapore)

How exactly should one estimate commercial property price indexes or CPPI? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? The reliability/distortion of information that can be observed on the property investment market was measured. Much of the information available on the property investment market is property price information determined by property appraisers. However, it is known that property appraisal prices are unable to appropriately reflect actual property market trends. Therefore, we use enterprise value data for REIT investment management companies comprised of REIT investment unit prices (share prices) available on capital markets. This paper compared apparaisal-based CPPI, transaction- based CPPI and Stock-based CPPI, as well as clarifying the distortion in property investment returns that are formed based on property appraisal prices.