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Abstract

Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 261-285 (2010)

“Diagnosing "Russian Disease" -A Reappraisal of Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy-”
Masaaki Kuboniwa (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University)

This paper further attempts to diagnose the disease of the Russian economy, so-called “Russian Disease”, characterized by heavy depends on oil prices. First, this paper clarifies the strong impacts of changes in oil prices on GDP growth, real exchange rates, currency substitution and people's economic behavior. Second, it further develops a comparative analysis of measurement of trading gains and GDI growth rates across eight countries including BRICs, US, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Norway. Third, this paper examines the structure and growth by sector, focusing on the oil and gas sector and the manufacturing sector. It clarifies a feature of Russian disease in which higher growth of the entire economy as well as the manufacturing sector has depended on rising oil prices. Finally, this paper presents the result of turnpike calculations of optimal multi-sector growth of the Russian economy.