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Abstract

Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 206-222 (2003)

“The Relationship between Relative-Price Changes and Inflation -Evidence from Six Countries-”
Tsutomu Watanabe (The Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University), Kaoru Hosono (Department of Economics, Gakushuin University), Mariko Yokote (Graduate Student of Economics, Hitotsubashi University)

This Paper investigates the relationship between the cross-sectional skewness of price changes and the rate of inflation using the CPI data of six countries and regions, including Japan, U.S., U.K., Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. We find a significant positive correlation between the two in the monthly time-series data in each country, but fail to find a similar correlation in the five-year-average cross-country data. The mean-skewness correlation exists in the short-run but disappears in the long-run, which is consistent with the sticky-price model developed by Ball and Mankiw(1995). We also find that relative price changes in each country tend to have a common factor in the sense that items belonging to the upper and lower tails of the price-change distribution are the same across countries, which implies the importance of global supply shocks in relative-price fluctuations.