Estimating long-term economic statistics for the Russian Far East is one of the most important tasks for researchers covering Russia and central Asia for the Asian Historical Statistics Project. The former Russian Republic, as well as the present Russian Federation, is divided into eleven (large) economic regions. The term "Far East" applies, as one would expect, to the very eastern region of Russian. This area, distant from Moscow, the Russian capital, but near Japan, is a treasurehouse of diamonds, gold, and other natural resources, but living conditions are harsh. The Far East covers 30% of Russia and is the largest of the eleven economic regions. As Russia's land area is 45 times that of Japan, the Russian Far East is 15 times larger than all of Japan. However, no more than eight million persons, little more than 5% of the total Russian population, live in the region. I now face the challenge of compiling time series estimates of national income for the Russian Far East, with its vast expanses and harsh living conditions.
There is a large body of research on 19th century Russia and, especially, on the Soviet Union. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, we have come to appreciate the importance of the quantitative historical economic research accomplished so far on 20th century Russia, on the various Russian regions, and on the former Soviet Republics. The Asian Historical Statistics Project research on Russia and central Asia reaches into unexplored territory and thus calls for a pioneering spirit, yet it also requires much laborious toil (this writer is sensing the first taste of fatigue from beginning a research project where so much remains unknown). Further, the collapse of the Soviet Union means that we are now able to access much statistical information which was once hidden, and must therefore work actively in the new statistical environment to redo work for the entire former USSR. At the same time, the transition to a market economy is bringing striking changes to the economies and to the statistical systems of all the former Soviet Union's countries and regions, particularly the Far East. For the staffs in the statistics gathering organizations of these countries, needless to say, and for non-Russian researchers as well, there are many complexities in conducting follow-up work on statistical time series (dealing with Russian and central Asian financial statistics is a headache for the International Monetary Fund as well as for researchers, and the World Bank is experiencing similar difficulties in attempting to compile statistics on GDP and industry). However, we must not passively moan about the new difficulties. The long-lived totalitarian system has collapsed, eliminating the stubborn barriers of secrecy, making it possible to conduct joint research with the statistical offices in all of the countries and regions of the former Soviet Union, and liberating us from the pointless task of compiling guess-work estimates. Further, we have been quite pleased with another change in our research environment which accompanies the transition to a market economy, namely the shift from the traditional System of Material Products (MPS) to the much easier-to-use System of National Accounts (SNA). We must strive to make effective use of the changed environment.
At present, research on national income of the Russian Far East is organized in the manner described below:
Step 1a. Gathering original raw data on national income statistics of the Russian Far East;, and gathering national income statistics compiled so far by the State Commission of Statistics of Russia (Goskomstat).
So far, only fragments of national income statistics of Far Eastern regions have been made public so we must first find out what materials Goskomstat holds and then work out how to view and gather it. We will conduct work not only on the Far East as a whole but on its different administrative regions as well.
Step 1b. Analyzing original raw data.
We hope that the persons who instruct us on compiling information will also assist us as co-researchers. Researchers from Russia, Japan and other countries have all experienced deep surprise at discovering that most Russian economists have no understanding of the structure of statistical data. It seems also that the influence of the established figures in the statistics field in Russia has waned as the environment has changed. Thus, we feel that bringing the actual compilers of the data into a cooperative research structure would advance the Project.
Step 2a. Nominal/MPS Base Time Series Estimates of National Income (1950 - 1995).
We will attempt to assemble data in the form of time series as far as it is possible to do so. In this case, the separately estimated national income statistics for all of Russia can function as a control total (CT). Further, the method of estimation must be the same for the Far East as for the whole of Russia. National income for the Far East as a whole must accord with the control total for the estimated national income estimates for each Far Eastern region. The difficult tasks to be confronted in compiling accurate estimates include: (1) dealing with the issue of jurisdiction of the former Soviet Union and the Russian federation over firms in the different Far Eastern regions; (2) allotting the activities of the transportation sector to the Far East and to its separate regions in terms of real income formation and usage (this is an issue separate from that of the regional affiliations of business, but it is important because we are dealing with large territories and small populations, so capital stock is largest among the eleven regions on a per capita basis, but smallest on the basis of area); (3) alloting collective consumption and investment; (4) dealing with import-export figures with foreign countries and with other Russian regions (because this area includes raw materials, it is especially important for the Far East). We plan to make strong efforts to compile capital stock and employment statistics.
Step 2b. Nominal/GDP Time Series Estimates (1950 - 1995).
To calculate GDP we will add the value-added worth of items in non-material services categories such as finance, public services, education, medical services, passenger transportation, and individual communications, plus capital depreciation in material and non-material categories; then we will add foreign trade income to MPS national income; and then we will deduct intermediate input to the non-material services category. Finally, making adjustments corresponding to real usage will produce a figure for GDE. At this stage, checks by using the input-output table will serve an important function. Our calculations can only produce hypothetical results at any stage of the Project, but this task is particularly difficult.
Step 3. Real/GDP Time Series Estimates (1950 - 1995).
The method we have adopted to calculate real growth rates works as follows. We use employment data and physical data on industrial and agricultural production, construction activities, and services, then the result will then be multiplied by the nominal base GDP of the reference year to calculate the real value of the time series CT. Goskomstat together with the World Bank adopted this method when it revised growth figures for 1992 to 1994. Further, we also plan to try making estimates by utilizing another method proposed by Prof. Evgueni Gavrilenkov.
Step 4. Tracing back estimates from nominal time series values and real time series values
Data must be assembled at 5- to 10-year intervals in order to obtain nominal values. For real time series values, necessary data must be ordered and estimates are, in a certain sense, more easily obtained than for nominal data. The problem is in the task of gathering physical data on production. At present, we are at the stage of completing Steps 1a and 2b.
The former Soviet Union's Goskomstat, along with its successor, Goskomstat of Russia, have compiled separate regional national income statistics on several occasions. Members of Goskomstat have indicated during meetings with the author that national income data on the Russian Far East is at present limited to four types:
1. (Data A) The national income produced by and utilized by 18 sectors for the years 1977, 1982, and 1987 (both nominal and MPS base).
2. (Data B) The national income production of 110 categorized industries and national income expenditures for 1977 (nominal and MPS base).
3. (Data C) National income produced and national income utilized (nominal/MPS base) for five large sectors for 1989-92 are compiled for the eleven large economic regions and 89 administrative regions which compose the Russian federation.
4. (Data D) The above 3 types are in the traditional MPS base form but from 1993, GDP/GDE statistics (nominal/SNA base) are compiled for the eleven large economic regions and 89 administrative regions.
None of the above have been made fully available to the public but we have acquired Data A and Data C. As there is basically no problem in opening this data to the public we plan to progressively make it available in Japanese and in English. However, Data D is definitely an experimental product needing major revision and so should not be made public. Currently, Goskomstat is in the midst of starting up work to compile regional GDP/GDE statistics for 1994 and 1995.
We held an intensive workshop with the leading members and specialists of Goskomstat's Department of National Accounts and its Department of Input-Output Tables in December 1995 and made significant progress. Thus it also became possible to begin thinking clearly about the next step. We plan to begin making a series of presentations to announce the results.
One important point should be borne in mind with regard to Data A and Data B and to parts of input-output (I-O) tables compiled during the Soviet era. The 1987 I-O Table system was assembled from charts of the entire country, of the fifteen republics, and of the eleven regions. National I-O Table (composed of 111 sectors) Republic I-O Tables (composed of 111 sectors) Regional I-O Tables (composed of 18 sectors)
The Far East Table is premised on the Russian Table, and the Russian Table is in turn premised on the Soviet Table. There is a Far Eastern Office of Goskomstat in the Far Eastern city of Vladivostok, but it is not capable of producing a Far Eastern Table by itself. This is because during the Soviet era information from enterprises and sectors under state jurisdiction were outside the jurisdiction of the Far Eastern Office and the same situation holds today. Further, the Section is also unable to independently process data on infrastructural distribution and on population movements, owing to a situation exactly the same as in the case of national income estimates.
Finally, we present for your reference the 1987 Russian Far East Input-Output Chart (Chart 1) and the Russian Far East National Income (NMP) Statisics Chart (Chart 2).