Abstracts of Kurosaki's English Publications, 3

Abstract: In this paper, we comprehensively describe spatial patterns of long-term changes in Indian agriculture at the district level. Variables of concern include the intensity of land-use, the shares of rice and wheat in areas under foodgrains, the ratio of non-foodgrains in gross cultivated area, the intensity of fertilizer-use, and individual crop shares in gross cultivated areas. As one outcome of the descriptive analysis, we propose a new regional classification of Indian districts based on similarity in rainfall, initial cropping and land-use patterns, and initial conditions and changes in irrigation. The proposed classification has reasonable explanatory power in describing the spatial patterns of long-term changes at the district level.

Abstract: Despite the professed claims of microcredit alleviating poverty, little is known about what kind of credit contract is suitable for extremely poor households, also called the ultra-poor. To fill this knowledge gap, we initiated a field experiment in the river islands of northern Bangladesh, where a substantial portion of dwellers could be categorized as ultra-poor due to cyclic floods. We randomly offered four types of loans to such dwellers: regular small cash loans with one-year maturity, large cash loans with three-year maturity both with and without a one-year grace period, and in-kind livestock loans with three-year maturity and a one-year grace period. We compared uptake rates as well as the determinants of uptake and found that the uptake rate is the lowest for the regular contract, followed by the in-kind contract. Contrary to prior belief, we also found that the microcredit demand by the ultra-poor is not necessarily small, and in particular the ultra-poor are significantly more likely to join a microcredit program than the moderately poor if a grace period with longer maturity is attached to a large amount of credit, irrespective of whether the credit is provided in cash or in kind. This paper provides evidence that a typical microcredit contract with one-year maturity and without a grace period is not attractive to the ultra-poor. Microfinance institutions may need to design better credit contracts to address the poor's needs.

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the community-based development (CBD) approach effectively reaches out to the poor. The CBD approach is expected to improve targeting performance by reducing leakage to the non-poor, elite capture, and program placement costs. However, the existing literature lacks comprehensive and innovative ways to assess the targeting performance involving women. We thus examine the targeting performance of CBD interventions adopted by a women-focused and women-managed non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. The NGO intervenes through female organizations called Community Organisations (COs), which is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. To assess the targeting performance, we employ rich village- and household-level survey data and compare villages with and without COs on the one hand and member and non-member households on the other hand. The comparison is in terms of poverty and vulnerability. The study shows that the NGO, with proactive involvement of women, has been able to successfully target poorer and environmentally vulnerable villages as well as households.

Abstract: In this study, we examine the effectiveness of growth and redistribution in reducing poverty in Mexico during the period from 1992 to 2012, using repeated cross-section household data. We first decompose the observed changes in poverty reduction into components arising from growth, improved income distribution, and heterogeneous inflation. We find the component of inflation to be non-negligible, as the inflation experienced by the poor was higher than the national average. The decomposition also shows improvement in income distribution to be the main contributor to poverty reduction in Mexico. In the second part of our analysis, we compile a unique panel dataset at the state level from the household data and estimate a system of equations that characterize the dynamic relationship between growth, inequality, and poverty, being careful to avoid spurious correlation arising from data construction. The GMM regression results show that Mexican states are characterized by income convergence and inequality convergence, and that poverty reduction in Mexican states is highly responsible to income and inequality levels in the previous period. This implies that once a small perturbation occurs in a state that reduces the inequality level, the state is expected to experience sustained poverty reduction in subsequent periods, which is consistent with the findings from the decomposition.

Abstract: In this paper, we comprehensively describe spatial patterns of long-term changes in Indian agriculture at the district level. Variables of concern include the land use intensity, the ratio of rice and wheat in areas under foodgrains, the ratio of non-foodgrains in gross cultivated area, the fertilizer use intensity, and individual crop shares in gross cultivated areas. As a byproduct of the descriptive analysis, we propose a new regional classification of Indian districts based on their similarity in rainfall, the initial cropping and land-use patterns, and the initial condition and changes in irrigation. The proposed classification has a reasonable explanatory power in describing the spatial patterns of long-term changes at the district level.

Abstract: Based on a four-year panel dataset of households collected in rural Pakistan, we examine the impact of an intervention on householdsfcapacity to reduce income losses due to attacks by wild boars. A local NGO implemented the intervention as a randomized controlled trial at the beginning of the second year. We find that the intervention was highly effective in eliminating the crop-income loss in the second year, but that effects disappeared in the third and fourth years. Our finding suggests the difficulty in technology transfer through the training or the high implicit cost incurred by the households in implementing the treatment. Therefore, the intervention was not sustainable at the household level. Nevertheless, due to spillover effects, the intervention could have been cost-effective at the project level.

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates whether a community-based development (CBD) approach is effective in mitigating the ill effects of aggregate shocks. The analysis is based on a three-year panel dataset of approximately 600 households in rural Pakistan where a local NGO has implemented CBD interventions. The results show that the mitigating effect was absent when the control group included both non-member households in villages under CBD interventions and households in villages without such interventions. On the other hand, within the former type of villages, a strong spillover effect from member to non-member households was found, mitigating the ill effects of aggregate shocks. Furthermore, CBD interventions accompanied by micro infrastructure construction or microcredit provision were found to be effective in mitigating the ill effects. These results suggest the possibility that whether a CBD approach mitigates aggregate shocks depends on the type of intervention and the nature of market failures.

Abstract: We implemented laboratory experiments in Jakarta, Indonesia, to identify motives for sharing, including baseline altruism, directed altruism, sanction aversion, and reciprocity. The study area is located on the periphery of the Metropolis of Jakarta, many of whose residents are migrants and are closely connected with informal institutions such as Arisan, a rotating savings and credit association in Indonesia. Using data from sample households, the experimental results show that transfers based on baseline altruism accounted for the largest amount.Because the difference in the transferred amounts arising from the revelation of dictators' identities was statistically insignificant, we combined the four motives into two: preference-related motives (baseline and directed altruism) and incentive-related motives (sanction aversion and reciprocity) for the examination of their association with real world behavior regarding sharing. The empirical results suggest the importance of incentive-related motives in explaining variations in the amount of income transfers received from and sent to others.

Abstract: This paper investigates the growth performance of agriculture in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh in the twentieth century. The use of unusually long-term data that correspond to the current borders for the period 1901-2002 and the focus on crop shifts as a source of growth distinguish this study from the existing ones. The empirical results show a sharp discontinuity between the pre- and the post- independence periods in all three countries: growth rates in total output, labor productivity, and land productivity rose from zero or very low figures to significantly positive levels, which were sustained throughout the post-independence period. The improvement in aggregate land productivity explained the most of this output growth, of which approximately one third was attributable to shifts to more lucrative crops.

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of assets held by low-income households facing various types of income shocks in pre-independence and post-independence Pakistan. Focusing on the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province or NWFP), the paper first investigates long-run data at the district level beginning 1902. Results show that the population of livestock, the major asset of rural households, experienced a persistent decline after crop shocks due to droughts, but did not respond much to the Great Depression. In the post-independence period, crop agriculture continued to be vulnerable to natural disasters, although less substantially so, while the response of livestock to such shocks was indiscernible from district-level data. To examine microeconomic mechanisms underlying such asset dynamics, I analyze a panel dataset collected from approximately 300 households in three villages in the NWFP during the late 1990s. Results show that the dynamics of household landholding and livestock are associated with a single long-run equilibrium. When human capital is included, the dynamics curve changes its shape but this is not sufficiently nonlinear to produce statistically significant multiple equilibriums. The size of livestock holding was reduced in all villages hit by macroeconomic stagnation, while land depletion was reported only in a village with inferior access to markets. The patterns of asset dynamics established from historical and contemporary analyses are consistent with limited but improving access to consumption smoothing measures in the study region over the century.

Abstract: The mismatch between credit repayments and income seasonality poses a challenge for microfinance institutions (MFIs) working in developing countries. For instance, in northern Bangladesh, income and consumption downfalls during the lean season after the transplanting of major paddy crops are a serious threat to a householdfs economy. Poor landless agricultural wage laborers suffer the most owing to this seasonality as they face difficulties in smoothing their consumption. However, in designing microcredit products, MFIs do not usually provide flexibility or seasonal adjustment during the lean season. This is mainly because MFIs are afraid that such flexibility might break the repayment discipline of borrowers, resulting in higher default rates. We thus conducted a randomized controlled trial in 2011-12 in northern Bangladesh to empirically test whether seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit leads to an increase in repayment problems for MFIs as well as whether it can increase and stabilize consumption of borrower households. Our results suggest no statistically discernible difference among the treatment arms in case of default, overdue amount, or repayment frequency. On the other hand, we find no positive impact of repayment flexibility on immediate food consumption during the period of seasonality, except for in-kind full moratorium treatment group. After a year of initial intervention, however, we see positive changes in food intake during the lean season. Thus, our preliminary results are in favor of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit.

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of assets held by low-income households facing various types of income shocks in pre- and post-independence Pakistan. Focusing on the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province, NWFP), we first investigate the long-run data at the district level beginning from 1902. The results show that the population of livestock, the major asset of rural households, experienced a persistent decline after crop shocks due to droughts, but did not respond much to the Great Depression. In the post-independence period, crop agriculture continued to be vulnerable to natural disasters, although less substantially, while the response of livestock to such shocks was indiscernible from district-level data. To examine microeconomic mechanisms underlying such asset dynamics, we analyze a panel dataset collected from approximately 300 households in three villages in the NWFP during the late 1990s. The results show that the dynamics of household landholding and livestock is associated with a single long-run equilibrium. When human capital is included, the dynamics curve changes its shape but is not ufficiently nonlinear to produce statistically significant multiple equilibriums. The size of livestock holding was reduced in all villages hit by macroeconomic stagnation, while land depletion was reported only in a village with inferior access to markets. The patterns of asset dynamics ascertained from historical and contemporary analyses are consistent with limited but improving access to consumption smoothing measures in the study region over the century.

Abstract: Based on a three-year panel dataset of households collected in rural Pakistan, we first quantify the extent to which farmers are vulnerable to attacks by wild boars; we then examine the impact of an intervention on householdsf capacity to reduce related income losses. A local nongovernmental organization implemented the intervention as a randomized controlled trial at the beginning of the second survey year.This experimental design enabled us to cleanly identify the impact of the intervention. We find that the intervention was highly effective in eliminating the crop-income loss of treated households in the second year, but that effects were not discernible in the third year. The finding from the third year could be due to the high implicit cost incurred by the households in implementing the treatment. Regarding the impact of the intervention on a number of consumption measures, the difference-in-difference estimate for the impact on consumption was insignificant in the second year, but highly positive in the third year when estimated without other controls. A part of this consumption increase was because of changes in remittance inflows. The overall results indicate the possibility that treatment in the absence of subsidies was costly for households due to hidden costs, and hence, the income gain owing to the initial treatment was transient.

Abstract: Aggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Given this inability, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such shocks and what kind of microeconomic mechanism underlies the household heterogeneity in vulnerability? These questions are investigated using two-period panel data collected in rural Pakistan in 2001 and 2004. We compare consumption response to droughts, floods, and health shocks and investigate how the response differs across different types of households. Empirical results show that the impact of droughts was negligible, younger and more landed households were less vulnerable to floods, and households with greater access to formal financial institutions were less vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. The empirical pattern suggests the possibility of risk sharing among households that are heterogeneous in both risk aversion and credit access.

Abstract: As an empirical research on weather index insurance in developing countries, we conducted surveys on rainfall and temperature index insurance products in Madhya Pradesh, India. The rainfall insurance covers drought and excess rain during the monsoon season, while the temperature insurance covers against excess heat during the dry season. This paper documents the details of surveys implemented under this project and describes the key variables collected from them.

Abstract: Based on a panel survey conducted in rural Pakistan, this paper analyzes the extent to which households recovered from damage due to floods that hit the country in 2010. With regard to initial recovery, households who had initially fewer assets and were hit by greater flood damage had more difficulty in recovering. After one year, the overall recovery had improved, with initially rich households associated with faster recovery but the speed of recovery decelerated. The overall pattern indicates that the village economy was turning towards the initial asset distribution despite the short-run disturbance to the household economy.

Abstract: This paper examines asset dynamics after natural disasters in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as North-West Frontier Province: NWFP), Pakistan. Using the colonial documents and district-level panel data from 1903 to 1945, we first show that agriculture in NWFP was subject to substantial shocks due to natural disasters such as droughts, hailstorms, and floods. Livestock, the major asset of NWFP farmers, responded to these shocks with ups and downs. Although less substantial, vulnerability of crop agriculture and livestock husbandry to natural disasters had continued in the post-independence period (from 1947 to today). To examine microeconomic mechanisms underlying the asset dynamics, we examine two different sets of household-level panel data. The first set is a panel dataset collected from about 300 households in three villages during the late 1990s, the period not associated with major natural disasters but with overall macroeconomic stagnation. From the panel data, we estimate the asset dynamics curve, which shows an S-shape with two stable equilibriums, the lower of which corresponds to the poverty trap. The second set is a panel dataset of 100 households collected in two rounds after the region was hit by the nation-wide, unprecedented floods in 2010. The empirical analysis of the recovery dynamics suggests that the flood damages caused only a short-run disturbance to the village economy. Combining three types of analysis, we conclude that the village economy has (had) a mechanism of gradually recovering from natural disasters towards the initial regime, where the income distribution was characterized by a large mass of households whose welfare and asset levels were around the income poverty line, together with a small grouping of middle-class households whose asset levels were sufficiently high to ensure them of a welfare level above the poverty line.

Abstract: In 2010/11, we conducted a survey of cycle rickshaw pullers and rickshaw owners located throughout Delhi, India. We drew a sample of 132 rickshaw owners (called Thekedars) and a representative sample of 1,320 rickshaw pullers. The survey results show that most rickshaw pullers in Delhi are short-term, temporary migrants. Most rickshaw pullers are poorly educated. The majority migrated from villages in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Social networks that extend from places of origin to final destinations facilitate migration. More than 90% of rickshaw pullers operate rental rickshaws owned by Thekedars. Rickshaw pulling involves hard physical labor. On average, a rickshaw puller works 11 hours per day, over 27 days per month. We estimate the average daily earning to be Rs. 260. A typical migrant rickshaw puller may save more than Rs. 2,000 per month. He may send these funds to his village home. This is the migrant rickshaw pullers' contribution to rural poverty reduction. Thekedars provide the fulcrum upon which the whole cycle rickshaw transportation system of Delhi turns. In addition to the rental of cycle rickshaws to migrant rickshaw pullers, Thekedars manage the administrative and legal aspects of their rickshaw rental business throughout the year. Their occupational history shows that many of them became a Thekedar from low beginnings, including rickshaw pulling and rickshaw repair jobs. On average, a Thekedar owns 56 rickshaws, approximately two-thirds of which are rented on a daily basis. Pullers pay a fixed rental fee per day at an average rate of Rs. 34. Net of business expenditures, monthly rickshaw rental income per Thekedar is estimated at approximately Rs. 5,600 for small and medium Thekedars and Rs. 41,000 for large Thekedars. The internal rate of return on investment over 5-6 years of the working life of a rickshaw is estimated to range between 18% and 62% per year. Currently, the rules and regulations on the cycle rickshaw sector in Delhi are based on the principal of the one-rickshaw, one-owner, one-driver, one-license policy. However, this policy does not reflect the real-life situations we encountered in our survey. We recommend that Thekedars be endowed with legal entity status. This would result in the healthy development of urban transport in Delhi.

Abstract: Based on a second survey of villages and households one year after a pilot survey, we analyze the household-level recovery process from damage due to floods in Pakistan in 2010. With regard to initial recovery from flood damage, we find that households who had initially fewer assets and were hit by greater flood damage had more difficulty in recovering. After one year, the overall recovery had improved, but there remained substantial variation across households regarding the extent of recovery. Initially rich households were associated with faster recovery than other households at the time of the second survey, but the speed of recovery declined during the most recent year. The overall pattern appears to indicate that the village economy was turning towards the initial regime, where the income distribution was characterized by a large mass of households whose welfare and asset levels were around the income poverty line and a small middle class of households whose asset levels were sufficiently high to ensure a welfare level above the poverty line.

Abstract: Based on a primary survey of cycle rickshaw pullers and rickshaw owners in Delhi, India, this paper estimates the causal impact of the opening and extension of Delhi Metro on the rental rates of cycle rickshaws. The cycle rickshaw rental market provides employment opportunities for unskilled, assetless workers who have migrated from rural areas because of poverty. A change in this market is thus expected to affect urban and rural poverty. Controlling for unobservable area characteristics using house tax information, we identify the causal impact depending on when Metro stations opened over the past decade. The regression results indicate that of the 1.6 percentage point increase in rental rates per km associated with a reduction in distance to a Metro station, approximately 1.0 point is attributable to the causal effect. Thus, Delhi Metro has increased the demand for cycle rickshaw services, which is a pro-poor consequence of the infrastructural investment.

Abstract: Using a unique dataset obtained from rural Andhra Pradesh, India that contains direct observations of household access to credit and detailed time use, results of this study indicate that credit market failures result in a substantial reallocation of time use pattern by children, leading to a significant increase in remunerative work and a similarly significant decrease in leisure time. While the direct impact on schooling time per se does not appear to be large, longer work and shorter leisure could arguably constrain effective learning opportunities of children, hampering human capital formation.

Abstract: This paper investigates the repayment behavior of borrowers of a Pakistani microfinance institution (MFI) using a unique dataset of approximately 45,000 installment records over the period 1998-2007. In early 2005, the MFI introduced reforms that included improved enforcement of contingent renewal. The reforms led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism was encouraged by weak enforcement of contingent renewal and was one of responsible factors for the pre-reform failure. To support this hypothesis, we show that before the reforms, a borrower's delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members' repayment delays beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks. Such excessive correlation disappeared after the reforms, including the period after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The empirical evidence thus demonstrates the existence and seriousness of the strategic default under weak dynamic incentives.

Abstract: Based on a pilot survey conducted in early 2011, in ten villages in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, we analysed the damage caused by floods in Pakistan in 2010, the distribution of aid, and the extent to which households recovered from flood damage. Our findings are as follows. Flood damage within a village was disuniform. Aid from outside was distributed to households that had suffered larger damage to their houses than others, but not to households with large damage to land, crops, or other assets. Aid distribution was targeted slightly in favour of households with lower initial assets. With regard to recovery from flood damage, we found that recipients of aid did not show higher or lower recovery than non-recipients, especially in respect of damage to houses. This could be due to the mix of recovery-promoting aid and selective aid directed towards households for whom recovery was more difficult than others. We also found that households who had fewer initial assets and were hit by greater flood damage had more difficulty in recovering from the damage caused by floods.

Abstract: This paper investigates the growth performance of agriculture in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh in the twentieth century. The use of unusually long-term data that correspond to the current borders for the period 1901-2002 and the focus on crop shifts as a source of growth distinguish this study from the existing ones. The empirical results show a sharp discontinuity between the pre- and the post- independence periods in all three countries: growth rates in total output, labor productivity, and land productivity rose from zero or very low figures to significantly positive levels, which were sustained throughout the post-independence period. The improvement in aggregate land productivity explained the most of this output growth, of which approximately one third was attributable to shifts to more lucrative crops.

Abstract: This paper empirically examines the impact of political reservation for disadvantaged groups on voting behavior. Using microdata from the National Election Study of the 2004 parliamentary elections in India, we find that in a reserved constituency, where only members of the disadvantaged castes can stand for election, voters of the disadvantaged castes are encouraged to vote. On the other hand, the system of constituency reservation does not have any impact on the turnout of voters belonging to other groups, including relatively upper caste voters. This finding suggests that political reservation does not crowd out the electoral participation of other groups. These voters, however, tend to vote for the right-wing political party in reserved constituencies. This implies a possibility that the political reservation might provoke a social cleavage along castes in Indian politics.

Abstract: To assess the targeting performance of community-based development activities and deduce the impact of such activities on poverty reduction, we implemented a survey of a non-governmental organization (NGO) in northwestern Pakistan. A distinct characteristic of this NGO is that it is managed mostly by women and its interventions are conducted through community-based organizations (COs), most of whose members are also female. This characteristic is rather unusual for a male-dominated society like Pakistan. Descriptive analyses of village, CO, and household level data shows that the NGO was able to target poorer villages. Villages with COs are characterized by lower adult literacy rates, lower availability of basic amenities, and higher susceptibility to natural disasters. With regard to household-level welfare indicators --- such as consumption, women's empowerment, children's school enrolment, and the weight-for-age of infants --- we found that the consumption levels of CO member households tended to be lower than that of households in non-CO villages. However, the difference between CO member households and non-member households in CO villages was insignificant, possibly owing to the mixing of the selection effect (i.e., poorer households are served by the NGO) and the causal effect of interventions on poverty reduction. On women's empowerment and child schooling, CO member households tend to perform better than other households, suggesting the favorable impact of the interventions and/or the self-selection of such households vis-a-vis program participation.

Abstract: Based on a pilot survey, we analyze the damages caused by floods in Pakistan, 2010, the distribution of aid, and the extent of recovery at the household level. With regard to the nature of damages, we show that flood damages had both between-village and within-village variation, and damages to houses, land (crops), livestock, and other business assets were not highly correlated. In the distribution of aid from outside, we again find substantial between-village and within-village variation --- the aid distribution across villages appeared well-targeted toward the severely affected villages, while aid within villages was targeted toward households with larger house damages, but not toward households with larger damages to land, crop, or other assets. The positive aid response to house damages and the negative aid response to the initial wealth level were found but the marginal response of aid to these characteristics was not large. With regard to the recovery from flood damages, we find that aid recipients did not show higher or lower recovery than non-recipients, especially for house damages, which could be due to mixing of a recovery-promoting effect of aid and a selection effect of aid toward households that have more difficulty in recovery. We also show that households who had initially fewer assets and hit by larger flood damages had more difficulty in recovery.

Abstract: Village-level aggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Then, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such natural disasters? This question is investigated in this study by using two-period panel data for the years 2001 and 2004 from rural Pakistan. We propose a methodology to infer the theoretical mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity of households in terms of their vulnerability, and focus on the difference between the across-household-type difference in marginal response to aggregate shocks and that in marginal response to idiosyncratic shocks. The empirical results obtained indicate that the sensitivity of consumption changes to shocks differs across household types, depending on the type of natural disasters. Moreover, land and credit access are effective in mitigating the ill-effects of various types of shocks. Household heads who are educated or elderly and households with a greater number of working members bear a larger burden of the village-level shocks; however, they are not vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. It is revealed that these patterns may be explained by the coexistence of unequal access to credit markets and risk sharing among heterogeneous households in terms of risk tolerance.

Abstract: This article investigates the effects of weather risk on the off-farm labor supply of agricultural households in a developing country, distinguishing different types of off-farm labor markets. A multivariate two-limit tobit model is applied to data from India. The regression results show that the share of the off-farm labor supply increases with weather risk, the increase is much larger in the case of non-agricultural work than in the case of agricultural wage work, and the increase is much larger in the case of agricultural wages paid in kind than in the cash wage case, suggesting farmers' considerations of food security.

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the relationship among growth, poverty, and inequality in Thailand and the Philippines, using panel data of provinces compiled from household expenditure microdata. The empirical model attempts to avoid the potential bias due to the fact that the entire distribution of individual-level consumption changes over time and empirical variables for growth, poverty, and inequality are often compiled from the consumption distribution. The system GMM estimation results robustly suggest that inequality reduced the subsequent growth rate of per-capita consumption and differences in inequality explain a substantial portion of the Philippine-Thai difference in growth and poverty reduction since the late 1980s.

Abstract:In this paper, we investigate the gap between the first target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the actual allocation of grant aid in the late-1990s and the early-2000s in order to identify necessary policy adjustments to achieve the goal. As a theoretical framework, we extend the poverty-targeting model of Besley and Kanbur (1988) by considering multiple donors and possible strategic interactions among them. To test theoretical predictions, we employ detailed data on grant aid allocation of eleven major aid donor countries and on aid disbursement of six international institutions including the IBRD, IDA, and UN organizations. Four main empirical results emerged. First, both in the late-1990s and the early-2000s, grant allocations from Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, and UK are consistent with the necessary conditions of optimal poverty targeting. Second, we found that there is a negative population scale effect for aid allocation, suggesting that strategic motives may also exist. Third, the overall results for multilateral donors indicate that allocation patterns are consistent with the theory of poverty targeting. Finally, there has been a recent improvement in coordination among major donors in reducing global poverty.

Abstract: This paper addresses the question: What kind of households are vulnerable and how are they vulnerable in Pakistan? This question is investigated using two-period panel data (surveyed in 2001 and 2004) covering about 1,600 households in rural Punjab and Sindh, and four rounds of nationally-representative, repeated cross-section data, covering about 15,000 households in each round of 1998/99, 2001/02, 2004/05, and 2005/06. During this period, average consumption initially decreased and then increased. Associated with this change, poverty increased initially and then decreased, and inequality decreased initially and then increased. The vulnerability analysis in this paper focuses on the second period when poverty decreased. Five measures of vulnerability are employed: transient poverty components of observed poverty, decreases in consumption levels, sensitivity of consumption changes to village-level shocks, variance of consumption changes, and the welfare cost of risk simulated under the assumption of a specific utility function.
Empirical results are summarized as follows. Important physical assets in Pakistan, i.e., farmland, livestock, and durable goods, are vulnerablity-reducing in general. The landed households, however, may have difficulty in catching up with the macroeconomic growth rate in a boom. Access to non-farm employment is vulnerablity-reducing. In contrast, access to credit and remittance has mixed effects, probably due to the reverse causality that households hit by adverse shocks seek credit or remittance more eagerly. Education is weakly associated with higher vulnerability. This could be because the welfare level of educated households is higher than uneducated households in general, implying that educated households have larger room for consumption curtailment when hit by an adverse shock. Households with more dependent members are less vulnerable, suggesting the existence of an informal social support or implicit contract for households with more children. Larger households suffer from a larger welfare cost of risk than smaller households do.
Geographically, residents in rural Sindh are more subject to various types of vulnerability than those in rural Punjab, especially northern districts of Punjab. Across the country, however, residents in NWFP and Balochistan suffer a larger cost of welfare loss due to risk, making the difference between rural Sindh and rural Punjab a minor one, and urban residents in Punjab and Sindh are less subject to vulnerability than all others, although we have to be careful since the regional contrasts in vulnerability across Pakistan are not based on panel data. To estimate the welfare cost of risk from repeated cross-section data, we impose restrictions that correspond to the permanent income hypothesis with perfect credit markets, but the dynamics of consumption inequality is not wholly consistent with these restrictions.

Abstract: This paper investigates the repayment behavior of microfinance borrowers in Pakistan using a unique dataset of about 45,000 installments/repayments covering 2,945 microfinance borrower households over the period 1998-2007. In early 2005, the microfinance institution for these borrowers adopted a new system with strict enforcement of punishment against repayment delays/defaults. This reform led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates, overcoming the previous problem of frequent defaults. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism --- if one group member is hit by a negative shock and faces difficulty in repayment, the other members who are able to repay may decide to default as well, instead of helping the unlucky member --- was encouraged by weak enforcement of dynamic incentives and responsible for the pre-reform failure. As evidence for this interpretation, we show that a borrower's delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members' repayment delays, beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks during the pre-reform period. The post-reform period is divided into two sub-periods by an earthquake in October 2005. Analysis of repayment behavior in the post-reform period yields the results that suggest that (1) the relative success under the new system was because of the suppression of strategic behavior among group members, thereby allowing joint liability schemes to function as individual lending schemes de facto and (2) the earthquake only marginally affected the new system in terms of repayment delays.

Abstract: Using a unique dataset obtained from rural Andhra Pradesh, India that contains direct observations of household access to credit and detailed time use, results of this study indicate that credit market failures lead to a substantial reallocation of time used by children for activities such as schooling, household chores, remunerative work, and leisure. The negative effects of credit constraints on schooling amount to a 60% decrease of average schooling time. However, the magnitude of decrease due to credit constraints is about half that of the increase in both domestic and remunerative child labor, the other half appearing to come from a reduction in leisure.

Abstract: This paper investigates the function of various modes of wage payment, focusing on the role of in-kind wages in enhancing household food security when markets are underdeveloped. Historical records from Asian countries, including pre-war Japan and colonial India, demonstrate the importance of in-kind wage payment in the initial phase of economic development. However, there is a paucity of theoretical explanations of in-kind wages in terms of their function and rationale in existing literature. This paper therefore develops a theoretical model that explains labor supply under different labor contracts, by incorporating considerations of food security as the main explanation for in-kind wages. The model predicts that when food security considerations are important for workers, owing to poverty and thin food markets, they tend to work more under contracts where wages are paid in kind (food) than under contracts where wages are paid in cash. This prediction is supported by empirical evidence from rural Myanmar. Estimation results of the reduced-form determinants of labor supply show that workers supply more labor for work paid in kind when the share of staple food in the workers' household budget is higher and the farmlands on which they produce food themselves are smaller.

Abstract: As a case study of globally important agricultural landscapes in the tropics, this chapter investigates changes in land use in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Although these regions experienced substantial changes in land use and a rapid agricultural growth in the twentieth century, the absolute income level of farmers still remained at the level of low-income countries and the number of the absolute poor was the largest in the world at the end of the twentieth century. With this background, this chapter describes the land-use changes in India and Pakistan, associates the changes with long-term agricultural performance, and shows the importance of crop shifts in enhancing aggregate land productivity, which is a source of growth unnoticed in the existing literature. The use of unusually long-term data that corres-pond to the current borders of India and Pakistan for the period 1901-2004 also distinguishes this study from the existing ones. The growth records of agricultural production and shifts in crop mix indices show that changes in aggregate land productivity were associated structurally with inter-crop and inter-district reallocations of land use. These changes reflected comparative advantage and contributed to the improvement of aggregate productivity. The crop concentration indices were at their highest levels in the early 2000s both in India and in Pakistan, showing the effects of agricultural liberalization policies and farmers' response to these policies.

Abstract: Myanmar's agricultural economy has been under transition from a planned to a market system since the late 1980s and has experienced a substantial increase in production. However, little research is available on the impact of economic policies in this country on agricultural production decisions and rural incomes. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact using a micro dataset collected in 2001 and covering more than 500 households in eight villages with diverse agro-ecological environments. Regression analyses focusing on within-village variations in cropping patterns show that the acreage share under non-lucrative paddy crops was higher for farmers who were under tighter control of the local administration due to their political vulnerability. Simulation results based on the regression estimates show that the loss in rural incomes due to farmers' being forced to grow too much paddy was not negligible.

Abstract: This paper investigates land-use changes in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, associates the changes with long-term agricultural performance, and shows the importance of crop shifts in enhancing aggregate land productivity, which is a source of growth unnoticed in the existing literature. The use of unusually long-term data that correspond to the current borders of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh for the period 1901-2004 also distinguishes this study from the existing ones. The empirical results show a sharp discontinuity between the pre- and the post- independence periods in all of the three countries: total output growth rates rose from zero or very low figures to significantly positive levels, which were sustained throughout the post-independence period. The improvement in aggregate land productivity explained the most of this output growth. To quantify the effect of crop shifts, a decomposition analysis is applied, which shows that the crop shifts contributed to the productivity growth in all three countries, especially during periods with limited technological breakthroughs. The contribution of the crop shifts was larger in India and Pakistan than in Bangladesh. The decomposition results and changes in crop composition are consistent with farmers' response to comparative advantage under liberalized market conditions.

Abstract: This paper presents estimates for agricultural production data in areas currently in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh from 1901/02 to 2001/02. A salient feature of these estimates is that they correspond to current international borders. The British Empire of India, which was broken up in 1947 (in the so-called "Partition" of the Indian subcontinent), covered areas of what are now India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Although a rich accumulation of statistical documents is available from the colonial period, there has been no rigorous attempt to compile statistics corresponding to the current borders during a period that includes years prior to 1947. This is because the Partition broke up the Empire of India not only at the provincial level (for which data are readily available) but also at the district or lower levels of administration. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap, focusing on production in crop farming in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Since neither the states of Pakistan and Bangladesh nor the concept of such nations existed during the early decades of the twentieth century, this exercise is hypothetical to some extent. Nevertheless, because farming activities are carried out on the soil of a region irrespective of its political designation, the estimates presented in this paper could shed new light on agricultural development in the three countries over the long term.