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プロジェクト研究: 2020(令和2)年度採択課題一覧

 

研究課題 Evidence and Voice for Minimum Wage Revisions in Myanmar
研究代表者 Laura Boudreau(コロンビア大学)
研究分担者
田中万理(一橋大学)、Rocco Macchiavello(ロンドン・スクール・オブ・エコノミクス)、Virginia Minni(ロンドン・スクール・オブ・エコノミクス)
We conduct a survey and experiments to garment workers in Myanmar in collaboration with the Confederation of Trade Unions in Myanmar (CTUM), the largest national umbrella organization for trade unions in Myanmar. There are two objectives of this research. The first objective is to respond to the strong demand of CTUM to jointly implement a survey on living costs, working conditions, and in-depth skill assessment of workers and to provide an evidence-based independent report to inform policy makers for minimum wage revision scheduled in mid 2020. The second objective of this research, which is our main academic focus, is to leverage our collaboration with the CTUM to explore the roles and effectiveness of unions' leaders in mobilizing workers' participation in collective actions, more generally, the roles of leaders in social movements. Specifically, we add experimental features to the survey sessions to explore 1) to what extent union leaders encourage workers' participation in collective actions (e.g. participation to the survey sessions), 2) to what extent union leaders encourage voluntary expression of one's view and build consensus in groups (about optimal minimum wage levels in our context), and 3) what are the mechanisms through which leaders are effective in these processes.

 

研究課題 Occupational Reallocations within and across Firms: Implications for the Labor Market Polarization
研究代表者 向山敏彦(ジョージタウン大学)
研究分担者
田中聡史(クイーンズランド大学)、高山直樹(一橋大学経済研究所)
This project studies how labor market friction interacts with the firms' decisions of reallocating workers across different occupations during labor market polarization. Starting from Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003), the recent literature on labor market polarization documents significant declines in employment among routine-task occupations in various countries (see Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2006) for the U.S., Goos and Manning (2007) for the U.K., and Goos, Manning, and Salomons (2014) for other 16 western European countries). While these papers have mostly agreed on the declines in employment in routine-task occupations, few studies have explored how differences in labor market institutions generate different patterns in occupational reallocation in the process of labor market polarization.
Our work is motivated by the recent empirical micro literature, which documents sizeable within-firm occupational reallocation in the Continental European countries where labor market institutions are presumably strong (Behaghel et al. (2012), Battisti et al. (2017), and Dauth et al. (2018)). One possible explanation for these empirical observations is that firms use within-firm occupational reallocations more frequently to adjust their occupational employment when they are facing higher firing costs. Do we observe these patterns in other countries in the world? As the first step in this project, we will compare these occupational reallocation patterns to the ones in the US, where firing costs are supposed to be low. Using two survey datasets in the US and one administrative dataset in Germany, we plan to contrast occupational reallocations within and across firms in the US and in Germany.
We set the final goal of our project to quantify the welfare losses associated with the firing costs, which could generate the different patterns of occupational reallocations. On one hand, firing costs can create a burden for firms as they make it difficult for the firms to adjust the number of workers in each occupation. On the other hand, when firms are able to reallocate workers inside, the efficiency losses associated with firing costs might not be so large, because the adjustment can be done through within-firm reallocation that alleviate the burden. Through a lens of a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics, this project aims to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the firing costs that is commonly high in the Continental European countries. As the final goal of this project, we plan to derive implications for labor market policies during the period of labor market polarization.

 

研究課題 City Structure and Local Labor Market Volatility
研究代表者 Janjala Chirakijja(モナシュ大学)
研究分担者
高橋悠太(一橋大学経済研究所)
Should local governments aim to solely maximize the growth of their local economies? Or should local governments aim for less volatile growth? We examine these second moments effects of local governments' policies on the welfare of local residents.
It is widely documented that productivities in dense cities are much higher than the ones in sparse cities. This aspect of data is often interpreted as positive externality; workers in dense cities interact with and learn more from each other and become more productive than workers in sparse cities do. A large body of work in labor and urban economics is devoted to understanding this type of externality and explaining the spatial difference of (the first moment of) productivity (See Moretti, 2011, for example).
However, spatial differences in higher moments have often been ignored. We begin by documenting that there are also large spatial differences of second moments (e.g., the volatility of wages). These second moments can have a significant impact on the welfare of local residents. For example, high volatility is often associated with large job losses during a recession, which has been shown to entail large and persistent negative impacts on workers' lifetime earnings. High volatility can also have negative impacts on public good provision by local governments. At the state or community level, fluctuations in local economic activities can translate into fluctuations in local governments' revenue and expenditure (e.g., through changes in property prices, property taxes, sales taxes, and demand for welfare programs). Thus, it is harder for the local government to provide public goods (e.g., long-term investment projects) in a stable manner if their cities have higher volatilities of revenues.
We investigate these important, but ignored features of spatial differences, and re-examine local governments' policies.

 

研究課題 民間給与実態調査の統計的性質の把握と障がい者の賃金構造の分析
研究代表者 三好向洋(愛知学院大学)
研究分担者
宇南山卓(一橋大学経済研究所)、勇上和史(神戸大学)、佐野晋平(千葉大学)、神林龍(一橋大学経済研究所)、林正義(東京大学)、別所俊一郎(東京大学)
本研究の目的は、第一に民間給与実態調査の統計的特徴を賃金構造基本調査と比較すること、第二に障がい者控除利用の情報を用いることで障がい者の賃金構造および障がい者をもつ家計の実態を明らかにすることである。
2007年の統計法の改正以来政府統計の個票データの利用が進められてきたが、民間給与実態調査の個票データは他の研究者も含めこれまで利用されていない。賃金に関する事業所側に対する調査としては、賃金構造基本統計調査が存在しているが、調査対象や調査項目で類似点と相違点がある。統計間の比較を通して、民間給与実態調査の統計的性質を明らかにすることは勤労所得に関する新たな個票データとしての利用可能性を明らかにできる。
民間給与実態調査は租税収入、租税負担等を把握することを目的としているため、給与に対する控除を詳細に調査している。そのうち他の統計調査にみられない特徴として、本人だけではなく家族障害者控除利用の有無が把握できる点である。控除利用の有無での賃金プロファイルを比較することを通して、障害者法定雇用率と障害者の賃金構造の関係や障害者を家族に持つものの負担を明らかにすることができる。

 

研究課題 高齢化社会における人の産業・地域間の移動に関する研究
研究代表者 冨浦英一(一橋大学)
研究分担者
鈴木悠太(ペンシルベニア州立大学)
先進国では、労働力の量的な減少のみならず高齢化が進行している。貿易による利益の源泉は、地域が優位性を持つ産業に労働が移行していくことにあるが、産業・地域間の移動は高齢化に伴い難しくなると考えられ、労働力の不足のみならず流動性の低下も、高齢化していく世界では喫緊の問題である。実際に、米国においても州間人口移動の大幅な低下のかなりの部分が高齢化によるものと分析されている(Karahan and Rhee 2014)。こうした労働移動の低下による硬直化が、産業構造の円滑な調整、地域経済社会の機能維持、発展途上国の急成長のような海外からのショックへの対応等の問題にどう影響するのか研究することが求められている。
国際貿易、経済地理学の文脈では、ある経済における政策や貿易、産業ショック等のマクロ的影響を評価するに当たり、定量的・構造的モデルの発展とともに、産業・地域経済構造を考慮する重要性が強調されている(Caliendo et al. 2017)。労働者が地域・産業間を移動するコストがかかるために、経済がショックに対応して新たな定常状態に移行するに時間を要るだけでなく定常状態においても生産要素の配分に非効率性が生じる(Dix-Carneiro 2014, Caliendo et al. 2019)。他方で、労働経済学では、個々の労働者は、高齢になるほど、将来的な就業年数が短くなるために移動から得られる便益が低下し、また地域・産業間の移動費用も高いため、ショックへの反応がより硬直的であることが示されてきた(地域:Kennan and Walker 2011, 産業:Artuc et al. 2010, Dix-Carneiro 2014)。
つまり、高齢化が進む地域・産業ほど、ショックへの対応に時間を要し、労働者の再配分における非効率性が長期化されるため、マクロ的には地域・産業・年齢間の労働生産性・賃金の格差につながる可能性がある。日本の政府統計ミクロデータを用いて貿易・産業・地域経済の実証研究を続けてきた冨浦と、貿易論の世界的メッカとなったペンシルベニア州立大学で最先端の構造モデルを学んでいて2019 Neil Wallace Award (Best Third Year Paper Award)も受賞した鈴木が共同研究として行う本プロジェクトでは、年齢により区分された産業間・地域間労働移動のデータを整備し日本の実証分析を行うにとどまらず、こうした近年における先行研究を統合し、経済政策やショックの評価における年齢構造の重要性を構造モデルにより定量的に明らかにすることを目指す。

 

研究課題 Women Leadership, Governance and Allocation of Public Goods in Karnataka (India).
研究代表者 D Rajasekhar(Insitute for Social and Economic Change)
研究分担者
R Manjula(Institute for Social and Economic Change)、森悠子(津田塾大学)、後藤潤(神戸大学)、黒崎卓(一橋大学経済研究所)
The title of the research study is Women Leadership, Governance and Allocation of Public Goods in Karnataka (India).
This study aims to examine the links between women leadership, governance and the provision of public goods in India, and whether performance of women leaders will influence voting behaviour and electoral outcomes. The context for the study is the affirmative policy followed in the local governance for inclusive development in India. One-third of seats as well as executive positions were reserved for women through the 73rd Constitutional Amendment Act in India in 1992. Subsequently, several Indian states including Karnataka formulated policies to increase the reservation to 50 percent. These policies have substantially increased the representation of women in Panchayats (local government) at village, block and district levels. In this study, we focus on the lowest level at village, known as Grama Panchayats (GPs).
Did the improved representation of women in Panchayats contribute to their participation, inclusive governance and better allocation of public goods? This question has been partially addressed by some studies in the past, and a brief review of them is presented below.
Chattopadhyay and Duflo (2004) used political reservations for women to study the impact of women's leadership on decision making at the local level. With the help of data from 265 GPs in West Bengal and Rajasthan states in India, they compared the type of public goods provided in GPs reserved for women with those provided in GPs reserved for men. They found that women leaders allocated more for those projects that are relevant for women.
Rajasekhar and Manjula (2012) show that women-headed GPs were more efficient in the delivery of streetlight services. Their analysis of data from 5,212 GPs in Karnataka shows that the ratio of expenditure on the provision of streetlight services to receipts was in general high in most of the GPs; but, if a GP has woman president the ratio declines by 8 per cent. Deininger et al (2015) finds that gender quotas increase the level and quality of women's political participation, their ability to hold leaders accountable, and their willingness to contribute to public goods. These positive effects persist beyond the period of reservation; that is, women once elected will continue to have qualitative participation in decentralized governance even after completion of their term.
Other studies argue that the political participation of women has been less than what is desirable. The Government of India (2005) has conducted a large study in several Indian states on the participation of women belonging to depressed castes. The study found that caste discrimination and atrocities on scheduled castes (SCs) and tribes (STs) continue to be unabated in various states, despite various constitutional provisions and legislative measures. Elected women panchayat representatives, particularly from SC and ST communities, face enormous discrimination and even sexual harassment in performing their public roles effectively. While continued discrimination in society is a complex reality, what is worrying is that government officials also treat such elected Panchayat representatives with neglect and apathy. Such attitudes and practices further limit the effectiveness of elected women Panchayat representatives from SC and ST households.
Ban and Rao (2007) did not find any evidence that women elected to local governments on reservations were merely proxy representatives and were more cautious in their conclusion. According to them, institutional factors matter much more for women than for men. They found that women perform better than men in situations where they have more political experience. They also found that women tended to perform better if they were living in villages less dominated by upper castes, and in states where the panchayat system is more mature. Jayal (2006) notes that institutional design as well as of social inequalities of gender and caste inhibit a fuller and more effective participation by women; at the same time, quotas have enabled women to address their practical gender needs and interests, even if the articulation and realization of strategic interests is moving at a somewhat slower pace.
Important gaps in the existing literature are the following. First, the previous studies are conducted at the level of GPs rather than at the level of ward or constituency from which a representative is chosen to each GP. Given that the performance of female president in the allocation of public goods at the GP level is likely to be affected by factors other than those relating to her commitment and interest to serve people, the association between reservation and allocation of public goods may be different at the ward level. Second, the previous studies did not focus on what women voters feel about their representatives in GP. Third, there are no studies that establish links between women leadership, inclusive governance, performance in the allocation of public goods and electoral outcomes. This study seeks to fill these research gaps.
Objectives
The purpose of this project is to investigate whether the improved representation of women in GPs contributes to their participation, inclusive governance, and better allocation of public goods. Specific objectives are to: •examine the links between women leadership, governance, and the provision of public goods, and •analyse the association between the performance of women leaders and voting behaviour and electoral outcomes.

 

研究課題 Firms' heterogeneity, education wage premia and the role of rent sharing
研究代表者 Cristiano Perugini(ペルージャ大学)
研究分担者
深尾京司(一橋大学経済研究所)、池内健太((独)経済産業研究所)、Fabrizio Pompei(ペルージャ大学)
This project is a continuation of the one previously submitted (in May 2019) in response to the additional call for proposals for the fiscal year 2019. Besides starting late (June 2019), the implementation of the project encountered substantial difficulties on the empirical side, for reasons beyond our control. Despite having submitted the application as soon as the project was approved, the Ministry has not yet delivered and provided access to the micro-data of the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (BSWS). The delivery date is still uncertain, but it is expected in January 2020. We could therefore only proceed, so far, with setting up the conceptual framework of our analysis and the empirical models. This additional project is therefore aimed at completing the activities that, due to force majeure, were not carried out during the first year and to extend the analysis to further aspects. In the following, we therefore summarize the information of the original project and describe the extension of the analysis.
The research idea of the original project was to investigate the dimension of wage inequality that unfolds within companies. In particular, our interest is focused on the role of firm level characteristics in shaping education/skills wage premia (Aghion et al., 2018; Card et al., 2016), namely: (i) identifying which technological and structural dimensions of firms' heterogeneity drive wage inequality between education/skills groups; (ii) uncovering how the role of such firm level features depend on the competitive (i.e., exposure to international competition) and technological (industry level) environment in which companies operate. We are aware that the possibility of analyzing differences between skill levels is constrained by the nature of the data, offering limited information on occupations (Ikenaga and Kambayashi, 2016).
With the continuation of the project we aim at going one step further in the analysis by investigating asymmetries within firms in rent-sharing of workers with different education/skills and which firm level factors affect such asymmetries. The interest in rent-sharing is motivated by the fact that the ability of workers to appropriate part of the profits is recognized as an important driver of wage inequality; however, this ability can differ across workers with different skills/education, due to firms technological and structural characteristics.

 

研究課題 Financial Uncertainty and Economic Growth
研究代表者 Pablo Andres Guerron Quintana(ボストン・カレッジ)
研究分担者
陣内了(一橋大学経済研究所)、片山宗親(早稲田大学)、Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde(ペンシルベニア大学)
The financial crisis of 2008/2009 affected many economic aspects of several advanced economies including Germany, Japan, and the United States of America. One feature of the crisis came in the form of heightened uncertainty in financial markets. That is, these markets could not separate good borrowers from bad borrowers, resulting in a market freeze. Another surprising consequence of the crisis is that economic growth in the last few years is weaker than before the crisis. This project aims to shed light on the role of financial uncertainty in the slowdown of economic activity around the world.

 

研究課題 Diverging destinies: Associations between household income, parental education and children's daily lives in Japan between 1991 and 2016
研究代表者 Ekaterina Hertog(オックスフォード大学)
研究分担者
苅谷剛彦(オックスフォード大学)、Man Yee Kan(オックスフォード大学)、Kamila Kolpashnikova(オックスフォード大学)、白川清美((独)統計センター)、Muzhi Zhou(オックスフォード大学)、田中雅行(一橋大学経済研究所)、伊藤孝之(一橋大学経済研究所)、中山史野(一橋大学経済研究所)、千葉亮太((独)統計センター)
This study aims to investigate the associations between activity patterns of children (aged 10-19), parenting styles and households characteristics in Japan.
A growing body of literature is documenting how children from families of different socioeconomic status spend their time differently. There is an increasing gap in the time children from families with higher and lower socioeconomic status spend engaging in developmentally beneficial activities, such as studying, reading with parents and so on. A related strand of academic research, "diverging destinies" literature, details how women at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum are increasingly making family-related choices associated with less advantageous children's outcomes. Much of the evidence for the "diverging destinies" argument comes from the US, but increasing socio-economic bifurcation in family environments has also been documented for other rich societies including Japan (see Raymo & Iwasawa, 2016).
There is little research so far that looks at the consequences that increasing socioeconomic differences in family contexts are having for the daily lives of the next generation of children growing outside western context. This is despite the evidence that parents are likely to promote their children's well-being and future achievement differently in different socio-cultural contexts (Doepke & Zilibotti, 2019; Gracia et al., 2019). Japan's Surveys on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA) is one of the highest quality and longest running sets of time use data in the East Asia. The quality of the data will enable us to provide the first detailed description of Japanese children's daily routines and how they vary by natal family backgrounds.
The project core aims are as follows:
1. Provide a detailed description of children's daily routines in Japan between 1991 and 2016.
2. Analyse how these routines vary depending on a number of natal family background characteristics including household income, parental education levels, parental employment statuses, and time availability. In particular, we will consider the potential reflection of growing social inequality in Japan in parenting practices and children's daily routines.
3. We will consider policy implications of our findings and produce policy recommendations.
4. Finally we will put our findings on Japan into comparative perspective using time use data from western countries, in particular UK

 

研究課題 Employees' characteristics and labor share of Japanese manufacturing firms
研究代表者 伊藤公二(東京財団政策研究所)
研究分担者
深尾京司(一橋大学経済研究所)、Francesco Venturini(ペルージャ大学)
While the long-run decline of the labor share in Japan has been one of the hottest issues in economics and policy discussion, the existing literature on the labor share in Japan is rather limited and confined to studies based on aggregate or industry-level data. Fukao et al. (2019) is a first attempt to analyze the drivers of the labor share in Japan at the firm level and show how the fraction of company's output allocated to workers is positively related the share of regular workers, and varies with the firms' engagement in international operations (FDI, imports, exports, etc.). Evidence comparable to this study based on international data can be found in Böckerman and Maliranta (2012) and Perugini et al. (2017).
However, due to lack of information on employees' characteristics, Fukao et al. (2019) are not able to control for the effect of workers' education and tenure on the labor share dynamics, and how these factors interplay with the known drivers of the labor share. This represents a clear shortcoming of the literature, which basically assumes that the firm's response to external drivers of the labor share does not change with the workforce's composition.
Following the previous research in the field (Ito 2017), this project aims to fill this gap by: (i) constructing a cross-sectional employer-employee dataset that merges Japanese plant-level and employees' data and calculate industry-level average employees' characteristics; and (ii) evaluating the impact of plant activity on the firm-level labor share controlling for employees' characteristics.

 

研究課題 Empirical Analysis of Agritourism Supply in Rural Areas of Japan(日本の農村部におけるアグリツーリズム供給の実証分析)
研究代表者 張宏浩(国立台湾大学)
研究分担者
北村行伸(一橋大学経済研究所)、鍾秋悦(屏東科技大学)、草処基(東京農工大学)、丸健(西武文理大学)、望月政志(一橋大学経済研究所)
Family farms need to engage in business strategies to ensure the generation of income and the trans-generational succession of the family farm. These strategies include both on-farm and off-farm income diversification. Due to the increasing consumer demand on leisure, agritourism has been recognized as an emerging research topics in agricultural economics. The popularity of agritourism study is because agritourism includes agricultural and recreational activities, farming education, and a plethora of outdoor recreational opportunities. Agritourism is a central relationship with alternative agriculture, value-added production, direct marketing of farm products, and rural community development. Therefore, agritourism can possibly provide an alternative income diversification strategy to improve farm household wellbeing.
A growing body of literature has focused on agritourism. These studies primarily provide a demand side analysis, which examines consumers' preference on agritourism. In particular, these studies addressed two research questions: (1) What kind of consumers are more likely to participate in agritourism? (2) How much they are willing to pay for their visits? Since the concept of agritourism combines agriculture and tourism, most of evidence was drawn from the field of tourism and leisure studies. Due to the dearth of available data, not many studies emphasize on agritourism from the view of supply side. We argue that supply side analysis is as important as the demand side analysis. Moreover, the very few supply side studies of agritourism have discussed the motives for and the advantages and adoption of agritourism in Western countries. Agritourism in Asian countries has received relatively little attention despite that agritourism is expected to stimulate urban-rural exchange in aging society. Given that most of the farms in Asian countries are family farms, it is hard to know whether the evidence drawn from the large-sized farms in Western countries can be directly applied to small family farms in Asia.
This paper contributes to the limited evidence of supply-side analysis of agritourism in Japan. Japan is a good country to study agrotourism because agritourism policy changed significantly during 2010-2017. For example, a restricted regulation is set for farms to receive a business license for operating agritourism from the government. However, this rule was eased after 2016 in order to promote agritourism engagement. With this exogenous variation in the regulation of policy, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the agritourism policy on farm wellbeing.
The objective of this study is as follows. First, we identify the factors that are associated with the participation decision to agritourism of farms or agricultural enterprises in Japan. Second, we go further to close look at different types of agritourism activities. Third, we provide an analysis to examine the factors that are associated with the level of agritourism operation, including the revenues and number of business days. Fourth, taking the advantage of policy reform on agritourism between 2010 and 2017, we are able to investigate the policy effect on farms. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the very few studies that look at agritourism from the supply side. Moreover, we provide evidence of agritourism in Asia countries.

 

研究課題 公立高等学校入試選抜における学区数の変更が大学進学に与えた影響の研究
研究代表者 岡澤亮介(大阪市立大学)
研究分担者
佐野晋平(千葉大学)、小川亮(大阪市立大学)、宇南山卓(一橋大学経済研究所)
教育に関する規制緩和の一環として、「地方教育行政の組織及び運営に関する法律」(地教行法)の第50条が2002年1月に削除されて以降、各都道府県で公立高等学校入試選抜における通学区域(学区)による出願制限が緩和されてきた。入試選抜における通学区域による出願制限の撤廃は、学校間競争とセレクション(生徒の特性にあった学校選択)により教育の質を向上させると考えられるが、因果効果に踏み込んだ実証分析は必ずしも多くない。
本研究の目的は、2002年以降の高等学校入試選抜における通学区域による出願制限の撤廃が、高校生の進路選択に与えた影響について実証的に明らかにすることにある。同法の改正以降、学区撤廃を含む学区数の変更が可能となったが、その実施の有無や時期には地域間でばらつきがみられる。都道府県間で学区撤廃のタイミングにラグがあることを利用した分析を行うことで、教育の質の指標として大学進学率に着目し、学区撤廃が教育の質に与えたインパクトを評価する。
本研究課題は、学校選択の自由化がもたらす教育の質への影響評価という、教育政策上の含意を持つ。
 

 

研究課題 東欧と中国の比較労働システム論
研究代表者 堀江典生(富山大学)
研究分担者
岩﨑一郎(一橋大学経済研究所)、馬欣欣(富山大学)
本研究プロジェクトは,中国と東欧の労働システムを,ミクロ実証経済学的に比較・分析することを通じて,これらの国々の労働制度や労働環境の実態把握を企図するものである。
中国において,鄧小平指導体制の下で「改革開放」が唱導されたのは,1978年12月の共産党第十一期中央委員会第三回全体会議であり,一方の東欧において,共産主義時代の終焉を象徴するベルリンの壁崩壊が起きたのは,1989年11月である。つまり,中国では40年超の,東欧では30年近くの時を経て,中央集権的計画経済体制(いわゆる「集権制」)からの脱却が図られてきたのである。永年にわたる改革努力の蓄積が功を奏して,中国と東欧諸国は,いずれも集権制の制度的・構造的欠陥を大幅に克服し,当時とは比較にならないほどダイナミックかつ効率的な経済体制を作り上げてきた。近年,これらの国々は「新興市場」として世界から注目を集めているが,その理由の本質がここにあるといっても過言ではない。
集権制を根本から改めるために,中国と東欧のいずれもが,市場原理の導入を図ってきたのは周知の通りである。しかし,東欧の国々が,先進諸国に比類する政治・経済システム,即ち,議会制民主主義を政治制度の基礎に置きつつ,資本主義市場経済への全面的な体制転換を進めてきたのとは対照的に,中国では,経済活動においては自由主義的な市場競争を広範に許容しつつも,政治制度の根幹には共産党一党独裁制を堅持するという意味での「社会主義市場経済」路線が,過去40年間に亘って首尾一貫守られてきた。このような市場経済への移行戦略に見る両者間の決定的な違いは,労働制度や労働環境の有り方にも大きな違いを生み出していると考えられている。
中国と東欧の市場経済化プロセスは,様々な研究者や研究機関によって永年調査・分析されてきた。その研究成果は,今日「移行経済論」(Transition Economics)と総称され,現代経済学の一大分野として世界的に認知されている。しかしながら,中国と東欧の経済システムを仔細に比較した研究例は驚くほど少ない。学術雑誌の中には少数ながらも注目に値する研究例が存在するが,しかし,それらはいずれも一過性の研究成果である。
このような学問的空隙を克服する第一歩とするために,本研究プロジェクトは,次の目的を掲げる。即ち,それは,上述した意味での中国と東欧の非対称的な移行戦略が,如何なる労働システムをそれぞれに生み出したのかという問題を,労働組合組織率及び賃金水準の決定要因という視点から解き明かすことである。先に触れた通り,中国と東欧の比較経済研究は,雑誌論文でも数えるほどしかない。ましてや,厳密な実証分析に裏付けられた研究成果は極めて限定的である。本研究プロジェクトは,独自に構築する大規模企業レベルデータのミクロ実証分析と,世界最先端の方法を駆使した既存研究のメタ分析によって,かかる研究課題の達成を目指すものであり,その研究成果の独自性と創造性は,既存研究を大幅に凌駕するものになると確信する。

 

研究課題 The Changing Patterns of Hierarchical Urban Systems in the Post-Soviet Economies: Historical Perspectives
研究代表者 SHADRINA, Elena(早稲田大学)
研究分担者
雲和広(一橋大学経済研究所)
Since the outset of market transitions, the corporate towns, or "monotowns", as defined by the Russian government - cities whose economic performance and employment highly depends on one or few industries - have been facing harsher challenges compared with more economically diversified urban agglomerations. The project aims to examine the transformations occurring within the phenomenon across the post-Soviet economies, focusing on the changes in the patterns of the hierarchical urban systems. Urban agglomeration is stimulated by Dixit-Stiglitz type monopolistic competition based on the product differentiation and increasing returns to scale as described by Fujita, Krugman and Venables (1999) or Fujita and Thisse (2002). In the Soviet practice, a corporate town was founded as a home to a very limited number of specialized firms. The latter were protected by the central planning and run under the socialist economy principles, namely, under the conditions with non-existence of price signal.
Naturally, the corporate towns have been facing larger challenges once the market transition began. More than 10 percent of the Russian population live in such corporate towns, therefore the situation these areas face has critical effects on urban dynamics in Russia. Studies on Soviet-type historical corporate towns and the efficiency of hierarchical urban systems in Russia are, however, relatively scarce.
Thus, the objectives of this project are twofold: first, literature survey of existing scholarly contributions on the post-Soviet transformations of so-called "monotowns" and comparison of principal findings with the standardized theoretical and empirical researches on the hierarchical urban systems in the field of spatial economics and economic geography, especially focusing on the former Soviet states, will be performed; and second, as a main part of the study, the empirical analysis of the effects of market transitions on the changes occurring in the "monotowns" in former Soviet economies in relation to their population size, specialization of economic activity and economic performance of post-Soviet urban systems will be examined.

 

研究課題 消費者移動行動の空間パターン分析
研究代表者 宮内悠平 (ボストン大学)
研究分担者
中島賢太郎(一橋大学),深澤武志(東京大学)
【研究目的】
本研究は、消費者の都市内の移動・消費行動パターンが、小売・サービスセクターの売り上げ、出店パターン、および地理的な集積にどのような影響を与えるかを理解することを目的とする。本研究は、平成31年度一橋大学経済研究所、共同利用・共同研究拠点事業プロジェクト研究に採択された「大規模小売店の閉店が地域内購買活動に与える影響に関する実証分析(研究代表者:宮内)」の継続プロジェクトにあたる。ただし、前年度プロジェクトが主に大規模小売店に注目していたのに対し、本年度はより広く消費者の移動行動と集積の関係に焦点を広げる。
より具体的には、本プロジェクトは3つのサブプロジェクトにより構成される。①大規模小売店の閉店が地域内購買活動に与える影響に関する実証分析は、前年度の直接の延長であり、大型小売店の退店の近隣小売店・サービス業に与える影響を実証的に解明する。②消費者の移動行動と小売店クラスターの形成では、消費者の空間的な移動行動およびそれに応じた小売店の参入をモデル化し、政策介入の妥当性を理論的・実証的に議論する。③消費市場、労働市場と都市の形成では、消費者が同時に労働者でもあることを踏まえ、消費者の住居・労働選択が消費市場への空間的なアクセスを通じてどのように都市の内部構造を形成するかを考察する。
【学術的特色】
本プロジェクトの学術的特色は二点ある。一点目の特色は分析手法である。すべてのサブプロジェクトにおいて、我々は消費者の空間的な移動行動を明示的にモデル化する。このようなモデル化は、制度変化や政策が消費者・生産者の厚生にどのような影響を与えたかを理解するうえで必要不可欠である。消費者の移動行動の空間的なモデル化は、産業組織論や都市経済学等で近年学術的研究が進んでおり、方法論としての学術的貢献も期待される。二点目の特色はデータにある。本研究では、ゼンリンデータコム社と共同し、日本人口の1%をカバーする、スマートフォンから得られる流動人口のデータという、大規模・高頻度のデータ(ビッグデータ)を用いる。このようなデータの特殊性は、日本という文脈を超えて、学術的な貢献を与えると期待される。

 

研究課題 コロナ禍がもたらす経済的、政策的不確実性についての研究:中小企業経営者はどのように対応したか?
研究代表者 川口康平 (香港科技大学)
研究分担者
田中万理(一橋大学),児玉直美(日本大学)
本研究の目的は、2020年1月に中国武漢市に端を発した新型コロナウイルス (SARS-Cov-2)がもたらした経済環境および政策環境の不確実性を、中小企業経営者(自営業者、フリーランス含む)がどのように受け止め、どのように対応したのかを明らかにすることにある。
本研究の学術的な特色は、第一に、新型コロナウイルスがもたらしたパンデミック状況がいつ収束するかといった環境そのものの不確実性と、パンデミック状況がもたらす経済問題に対応するために打ち出された持続化給付金、休業給付金などの受給可能性や緊急事態宣言の終了時期といった政策の不確実性を別途測定し、経営行動への影響を個別に定量化する点にある。これにより、各政策の貢献ならびに不備を、パンデミックという外生的な環境変化の影響と区別して評価することが可能となる。
第二に、現状についての記述的な分析に終始するのではなく、外的な情報が経営主体の不確実性認識の形成にどう寄与し、そうして形成された不確実性認識が事業継続、雇用、投資などの経営行動にどう影響を与えたか、という因果関係を識別するための調査デザインを採用している点が挙げられる。このことにより、例えば政府が緊急事態宣言の終了時期や条件について不確実性を減じるようなアナウンスを行っていればどの程度影響を抑えられたか、といった反実仮想的な評価が可能となる。

 

研究課題 地域情報を考慮した人口減少下の税・社会保障制度と家計行動の関係についての実証研究
研究代表者 伊藤伸介 (中央大学)
研究分担者
宇南山卓(一橋大学),林田実(北九州市立大学),児玉直美(日本大学),出島敬久(上智大学),佐藤慶一(専修大学),村田磨理子((公財)統計情報研究開発センター),松浦広明(松蔭大学),宮崎毅(九州大学),田中雅行(一橋大学)
人口動態が地域ごとに異なることによって,地域における財政のあり方や持続可能性の格差が拡大している。こうした状況で,税制・社会保障制度が家計行動と地域経済の成長などにどのような差異をもたらすかを,政府統計ミクロデータを用いて究明することが本研究の目的である。
2019年度においては,地域間における所得格差の要因として,所得税における所得再分配効果の影響を明らかにした。これまでの実証研究から,①課税前所得,課税後所得共に,地方部よりも都市部において大きな不平等が存在すること,②所得税の再分配効果は地方部よりも都市部において大きいことも明らかとなっている。また、世帯構成の変化(非婚、片親世帯、核家族の増加)、世帯構造毎の世帯収入の変化と世帯員毎の貢献度、世帯員間の就業の有無における類型化(片働き世帯、共働き世帯等)と消費行動との関連性等、世帯類型の視点から見た所得と家計行動の動向にも関心を払って、実証研究を進めてきた。
こうした状況を踏まえ、2020年度のプロジェクト研究では、具体的には,地方税制,公的年金制度といった税・社会保障制度が,家計の就業行動,消費・貯蓄・資産選択,人口動態に与える影響を定量的に把握することを目指している。このまま大都市圏への地方からの流出が進むと地域の財政状況が悪化することによって,地方の公共財の供給の縮小や公衆衛生の悪化が予想される。そこで,地域間の人口移動と就業選択との関係,さらには地方財政への持続可能性の影響を動態的に把握するためのミクロシミュレーションによるアプローチの可能性も研究の対象とする。こうした点で,本研究において詳細な地域情報を含んだ政府統計ミクロデータを用いて実証分析することの意義がある。
また,財政状況が悪化した地域から財政状況がより良好な地域への人口移動が加速することによって,地方財政の格差と地域ごとの人口の一極集中と偏在が拡大する可能性がある。人口の減少を克服するために、ワーク・ライフ・バランスが求められる。そこで,本研究では,地域情報を考慮した上で,個人の就業行動,家計の消費・貯蓄・資産選択の連関を把握するだけでなく, 地域単位の仕事と子育ての両立の状況について実証分析を行う。以上の推定においては,モデル選択や変数選択に関する探索的な実証研究の可能性も探りながら, 古典的な推定手法と現代的な予測手法の比較・検討を行う。さらに地域間移動についてミクロシミュレーション分析を行う。それらによって,新たな政策評価と経済予測の可能性を追究することが本研究の特色である。

 

研究課題 The impact of self-employment on physical and mental health: Evidence from senior workforce in Singapore and Japan
研究代表者 岡室博之 (一橋大学)
研究分担者
Seonghoon Kim(Singapore Management University),Emiko Usui(Hitotsubashi University),Jessica Ya Sun(Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
We investigate the impact of self-employment on physical and mental health of elderly workers in Singapore and Japan.
Due to the rising trend of population ageing, many governments pay close attention to self-employment among the elderly as a means to encourage labour force participation and active ageing. On one hand, self-employment gives the elderly more flexibility in work hours, the scope and difficulty of tasks, etc. This flexibility can reduce work-related stress allowing them to delay retirement. On the other hand, self-employment may lead to volatile workload and income flows, which represents a source of stress. Work-related stress, in turn, impacts negatively on health and subjective well-being and may increase incidence of diseases (e.g. cancer, heart problems, psychological problems), and eventually mortality. Given these two opposite mechanisms, whether self-employment has a positive or detrimental effect on elderly’s physical and mental health remains unclear and can only be addressed through rigorous empirical evidence.
 The objective of this study is to examine the impacts of self-employment on elderly worker’s physical and mental health in both Singapore and Japan. Both countries have a substantial ratio of ageing population and have implemented similar policies in encouraging elderly labor force participation (e.g. Retirement and re-employment Act in Singapore and Elderly Employment Stabilization Law (EESL) in Japan). Furthermore, the self-employed represent a non-negligible ratio of the elderly labour force in both countries: 8% in Singapore and 7% in Japan. Therefore, it is significant to examine the impact of self-employment on elderly population in both countries. We will also examine how the results from Japan and Singapore differ, while focusing on the differences in labor market institutions and culture contexts.

 

研究課題 Impacts of Immigrant Workers on the Structure of Production and Labor Market Outcomes in Japan
研究代表者 鈴木健介 (The Pennsylvania State University)
研究分担者
Jonathan Eaton(The Pennsylvania State University),Yasuhiro Doi(Nagoya University)
Due to the aging population and the low birth rate in Japan, a labor shortage has emerged as a central economic problem. To cope with the tight labor supply, the nation’s economy has increased its dependence on foreign workers over the course of the last decades. Introduction of new visa schemes including the Technical Intern Trainee Program (TITP, Ginō Jisshū Seido) and the Designated Activities (Tokutei Katsudō) has expanded foreign employment significantly. As of 2019, the total number of foreign workers exceeds 1.6 million, which accounts 2.5% of total workers in Japan (Table B2 and B3 in Appendix B). Furthermore, the National Diet approved legislation in 2019, that will open the door to blue-collar workers from overseas by establishing a new working visa classification. This major immigration reform supersedes the 1988 Sixth Basic Act on Employment Measure which had been limiting the provision of working visas to only skilled workers for the last 30 years. Therefore, documenting the detailed situation of foreign employment and understanding the impacts of immigrant workers on the structure of production and on labor market outcomes are particularly important.
In studying the implications of immigrant workers, understanding the distribution of foreign workers across regions, industries, and occupations will be crucial. As of 2019, the share of foreign workers in the total number of workers in each region ranges from 5.9% in Tokyo to 0.4% in Akita (Table B3). Across industries, there is a 9.6% point-gap between Manufacturing of Food Products sector, 9.8%, and Electric, Gas, Water, and Heat Supply sector, 0.2% (Table B4). The foreign employment share varies substantially across prefectures within a sector too (Table B5). The spatial distribution of foreign workers is also heterogeneous across visa status (Table B2); while the high skilled professional workers are geographically more concentrated in Tokyo, low skilled TITP workers are relatively dispersed across regions with Aichi having the largest fraction. Furthermore, the wage distribution of foreign workers reveals substantial heterogeneity across different status of residence (Table B6 and Figure B1). Given that each region has a comparative advantage in different sectors, and each sector employs workers of different occupations with different intensities, incorporating sectoral, regional, and occupational dimensions into the analysis will be important to assess the implications of skill-specific immigration policy. Furthermore, labor market outcomes of immigrant policy may hinge on the substitutability (complementarity) of workers across different occupations.
Given this background, objectives of this project are three-fold: (1) we will provide a detailed descriptions of the distribution of foreign workers across regions, industries, and occupations using the novel micro data on foreign employment; (2) we will study the impacts of immigrant workers on production structures and labor market outcomes across regions by developing and quantifying a spatial general equilibrium model based on the assignment framework, (3) as the final goal of this project, we will use the model to do counterfactual analysis and derive implications for foreign employment policies.
There are two major academic features of this project. First, to the best of our knowledge, there are no comprehensive studies on immigrant workers and their implications for regional economies in Japan. Documenting the detailed distribution of foreign workers will allow us to uncover the heterogeneous exposures of the foreign workers across regions and industries, which constitutes an important contribution to the literature. Micro-level data may also elucidate potentially important characteristics of firms hiring foreign workers, which will expand the scope of future research in this field too. Second, recently, there is a growing literature in the field of international trade and spatial economics which studies the impacts of migrant workers (both internal and international) using a quantitative general equilibrium framework, e.g., Bryan and Morten (2019), Khanna and Morales (2019), Monras (forthcoming). We believe that this project will push the frontier of the structural analysis of migration and will contribute to the policy studies on foreign employment in Japan by providing a toolkit to assess the implications of future reforms on skill-specific immigration policy.

 

研究課題 Bonus versus Promotion Incentives in Corporate Innovation
研究代表者 山下直輝(Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University)
研究分担者
Ryo KAMBAYASHI(Hitotsubashi University)
This project offers the following objectives. We focus on the unique wage structure in the Japanese labour market and examine how the wage structure inside firms affects the rate and direction of corporate innovation merging several micro-data sources.

Objective 1: We built a comprehensive firm-level dataset, merging wage information from the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (BSWS) to firm accounting data in the Basic Survey of Business Structure and Activity, conducted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (hereafter, the ‘METI data’) as well as corporate innovation, measured by patents data stored at the Japan Patent Office.

Objective 2: Using the constructed dataset we will undertake the empirical analysis focusing on two sources of the wage-based incentive provisions within firms - the bonus and the long-term incentives – to estimate its effects on innovation outcomes.

Innovation forms a pillar in the company’s competitive advantage, determining future profitability, the growth trajectory and the survivorship in the competitive environment. The stream of research in economics and management strategy have studied several driving forces behind innovation. Inter alia, the design of the incentive structure occupies great interests because of its relevance to the management of innovation. However, there is a dearth of evidence to assess what incentives at the lower level of the organizational hierarchy work to stimulate corporate innovation, while most of the studies have looked at the incentive provisions to R&D managers and CEO as a means of stimulating innovation. This is perhaps due to the following reasons. First, we do not have a universally agreed means of incentives at the level of R&D employees, while managerial level can be offered the performance-based package such as the stock options. Second, there looms a significant challenge in the data collecting since an incentive scheme is harder to measure it. Simply put, from the managers’ point of views, we have little understanding of what the incentive structure works for R&D workers who are actually engaged in inventive activities.

 

研究課題 Predictors of Fertility in Russia: Parents Job Instability and Socio-Economic Inequalities.
研究代表者 Tatiana Karabchuk (United Arab Emirates University)
研究分担者
Kazuhiro Kumo(Hitotsubashi University),Ekaterina Skoglund (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies)
The literature provides extensive evidence on the interconnection of labor market outcomes and number of children in the families. It was shown that job instability delays first births among youth and makes them postpone their childbearing behavior (Perelli-Harris 2006; Karabchuk 2020). Employment type and employment characteristics determine family income and socio-economic inequality which predicts differences in fertility behavior in the population. However, the most of published articles were massively focused on mothers’ employment and female job instability (Karabchuk 2017; Selezneva and Karabchuk 2017; Popova, 2018). There is lack of literature dedicated to the analysis of both parents’ employment and family socio-economic status under the economic inequality perspective. This paper sets the following particular tasks: (1) summarizing and systematically describing existing research related to both parents’ employment status and the family childbirth planning (job stability, dynamics, predictors of childbirth etc.), with a special focus on fertility-related decisions in Russia; (2) studying existing socio-economic inequalities in relation to job stability and employment status; (3) studying fertility decisions through lens of socio-economic inequalities and employment types of both parents.
According to the Federal Stated Statistics Service, the number of children born per woman (TFR) for the period 1960-2000 decreased by 50%. TFR declined from 3.320 in 1960 to 1.554 in 2000 in the rural population, while for the urban population the decline was from 2.040 to 1.89. The great transformation of the social and economic structure that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and further economic recovery are correlated with changes in TFR in the same direction (Rosstat, 2008).   
Since 2006 Russia has been taking highly aggressive measures to encourage childbearing, and the birth rate has increased as a result of this policy. Given the experiences of countries in Western Europe, it is hard to imagine Russia’s birth rate recovering to a level of around 2.1, which will be enough to reverse population decline that will continue for the next 20-30 years (Karabchuk et al, 2017). Most of the gender studies in Russia were devoted to the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union; relationship between socio-economic inequalities between genders, and the effects of those on fertility is not yet investigated. Contemporaneously, while determinants of fertility in Russia are studied in the literature (e.g., Kohler and Kohler 2002; Perelli-Harris 2006; Vishnevskii 2006; Karabchuk, Kumo, Selezneva, 2017; Chichkanov et al. 2018), the association between job instability of both parents, socio-economic status of the families and childbearing behaviour is rarely addressed. Such clarification will have important policy implications in terms of the choice of policy priorities and policy instruments.

 

研究課題 江戸時代の商業主導的経済成長の文化的・制度的基礎の研究
研究代表者 寺西重郎 (一橋大学)
研究分担者
黒崎卓(一橋大学)
最近の研究(岩波『日本経済の歴史』全6巻)で明らかにされたように、日本経済は明治維新以前の江戸時代(および戦国時代)においてかなりの安定的・持続的な経済成長を達成してきた。この成長のメカニズムについて様々な要因が挙げられているが、いずれもその全体像を明らかにするものとはなっていない。例えば農業の技術進歩については、その多くが江戸時代以前になされたものであることが指摘されるし、とりわけ重要な品種改良については、その普及が厳しく制限されさほど効果を持たなかったことが知られている。また土地の所有権については、残余所得権は鎌倉時代から耕作者の所有するものになっており、そのインセンティブに江戸時代固有の効果を持ったとは考えられないし、耕作者の残余支配権については18世紀後期以降の地主制の発達にともなって次第に成立してきたとみられるが、それは江戸時代全体の成長を説明するものではない。
この研究は、思想史と経済史の接点から、比較経済史を構成する必要があるという立場に立ち、江戸時代の経済成長は、取引コストの低下に基づく小生産者生産の商業によるコーディネーションによって生じたものである、ことを主張する。その背景には、戦国時代以前に高まった情報の非対称性による社会的なtrustの低下が、江戸幕府と民間の知識人による道徳的社会的規範の開発と教育水準のたかまり及び武士階級の儒教的知識の共有によって払しょくされ、共通の行動規範と慣行が成立したことが作用していることが示される。

 

研究課題 公的統計ミクロデータを用いた観光分野における「証拠に基づく政策立案」のための地域分析
研究代表者 廣瀬雅代 (九州大学)
研究分担者
菅幹雄(法政大学),大井達雄(和歌山大学),宮川幸三(立正大学),南和宏(統計数理研究所),田中雅行(一橋大学),伊藤伸介(中央大学)
人口,産業や住宅などの多方面の分野でデータの利活用が進み,人口減少に対する戦略や新産業の創出が期待されている。同時に交流人口の拡大による地方での観光振興の充実ももとめられている。しかしながら,観光はデータ利活用が最も遅れている分野の1つであり,エビデンスに基づいた政策決定が行われた事例は少ない。そこで,本研究では公的統計ミクロデータや民間のビックデータといった大規模データを通じて,観光市場における「証拠に基づく政策立案」(EBPM)に役立つ実証分析を行い,その結果を行政や観光産業などの利害関係者に政策提言することを目的としている。
研究成果として,観光経済学や観光統計に関する研究分野での手法の開発や分析結果の活用だけでなく,観光分野を通じて地方における統計利活用の先進事例の蓄積があげられる。また、観光経済学だけでなく,環境経済学の分野にも貢献可能である。国連統計部や世界観光機関ではサステナブル・ツーリズムにおける統計指標化に関するプロジェクトを実施しており,本研究の成果は同プロジェクトに合致するだけではなく,政府が進めているSDGsの推進にも貢献するものである。さらに, これらの実証分析は、昨今の新型コロナウイルスの流行による観光産業への影響を比較するための土台にもなり、今後の緊急時の対応指標に対する提言にも役立つものと考えている。

 

研究課題 日本と中国のジェンダーギャップにおけるデジタルトランスフォーメーションの有効性の検証
研究代表者 白川清美 (独立行政法人統計センター)
研究分担者
馬欣欣(富山大学),岡部智人(青山学院大学),Xiaobo Qu(中国社会科学院),Jie Cheng(中国社会科学院),Matthew Sobek(ミネソタ大学)
【研究目的】本研究は,日本における女性の管理職率および正規社員率の低さ等のジェンダーギャップの縮小において,AI(人工知能)を核としてDX(デジタルトランスフォーメーション)の有効性を検証し,少子高齢化が進んでいる日本の労働雇用政策や家族政策を提言することを目的とする。
日本におけるジェンダーギャップの縮小には,それらの要因となる雇用制度と性別分業とビジネス慣行の相互依存関係を改善することが求められるが,これまで根本的な解決策が明示されていない。そのため,日本における専業主婦が定着した時期・経緯や男女間の就労に関するミスマッチ(現職と希望の職種・就業形態)の差異を明確にし,女性の管理職率および正規社員率の低さの要因を明らかにする。また,女性就業率が高い中国と比較し,人的資本,家族構造などの要因が女性就業に与える影響の日中間の差異を明らかにし,2020年3月からサービスが開始した5G(第5世代移動通信方式)やAIを核としたDXの最適な活用方法の提案が可能となる。
【学術的特色】労働市場における男女間格差をテーマにした先行研究は多々あるが,多くの実証研究は男女間賃金格差や就業形態の男女差異を焦点としたものである(Blau and Kahn 1992, 1996;Daly et al., 2006; 富田 1988;樋口 1991; 中田 1997;川口2008; Gustafsson and Li, 2000;馬2009a, 2009b; Li and Ma, 2014)。一方,労働市場における就業のミスマッチに関しては,教育過剰(overeducation)による学歴のミスマッチ(Cohn and Khan1995;McGuinness 2006; Levin and Oosterbeek2011), および求人と求職の差異に実証研究が行われているが,職業や就業形態におけるミスマッチ (例えば,現在の職業と希望する職業のミスマッチ)を明らかにしている研究が少ない。職業のミスマッチに関連する問題としては,欧米諸国の女性の管理職率(40%以上)と比較して,日本の女性の管理職率(14%)が低い。この要因は,M字カーブで表現される年齢別の女性の雇用状況に大きく影響を受けており,さらに結婚出産後の再就職時には就労のミスマッチを安易に受け入れる傾向にあるためである。このミスマッチは,就労に関する需要と供給がアンバランスな状態であるにも関わらず,需要側(企業等)の低い要求に,供給側(労働者)がアンバランスを容認することで均衡な状態を作りだしているので,公に公開されているデータはない。本研究は,国勢調査や就業構造基本調査などの政府統計のミクロデータに基づく分析により,就労に対するミスマッチを明確化することにより,学術的貢献が大きいと考えられる。また,日本において,男女間の管理率の格差は,女性側に多くのミスマッチがあると考えられる (馬・乾・児玉2018)。本研究により,就労ミスマッチにおける男女間の格差を明らかにすることにより,日本労働市場における男女間の格差に関する実証研究に関しては,新たなエビデンスの提供が期待できる。さらに,国際比較(日本と中国)を行い,女性就業のメカニズムにおける日中の差異,労働市場,労働政策の日中差異を明らかにすることにより,少子高齢化の社会における東アジアの女性就業に関する政策提言もできる。
それ以外に, 2020年3月以降,新型コロナウィルスの感染拡大の影響を受け多くの企業で実施しているテレワーク等の在宅勤務の現状等, DXに関する独自調査を実施し,日本よりもAIに関する研究が進んでいる中国との比較検証結果に基づき,より実現性の高い提言が可能となる。
以上,本研究は,学術的にみて有意義な研究であり,また社会的意義も大きく,国際比較研究への貢献が期待できる。

 

研究課題 Regional Macroeconomic Analysis: Theory and Application
研究代表者 Jordan J. Norris (New York University)
研究分担者
Yuta Takahashi(Hitotsubashi University)
As Guren, McKay, Nakamura, and Steinsson (2020) dissertate, the cutting-edge in empirical macroeconomics has recently shifted to exploiting regional variation, such as in the analysis of a fiscal stimulus. This new direction is motivated by the purported identifying power regional variations offer. However, the identification is valid only if the regional geography is appropriately symmetric. The identifying assumptions, we contend therefore, are inconsistent with the reality of rich geographic heterogeneity and interdependence. Without a theory that generalizes these assumptions, it is not possible to assess the validity of these methods, or of the resulting estimates and conclusions.
The aim of this project is to construct such a generalized theory: one that enables a realistic geography. With this theory, we will develop an estimation method that is theoretically-consistent in regional analyses, and examine the biases in those identified under the standard simplifying assumptions. With application to data on the regional US economy, we will demonstrate our methodology on, and offer a new assessment of, the impact of fiscal stimuli.
The problem we address arises due to a feature of the applied microeconomic empirical methods that are now being utilized in cross-sectional macroeconomic settings. Some of the identifying assumptions, though innocuous in applied microeconomics, become problematic in macroeconomic contexts. For example, in the analysis of a fiscal stimulus, it is common practice to use a time fixed effect to remove confounding aggregate effects on the economy, such as those from monetary policy. This confounding variation is correctly removed, and identification therefore valid, only if the impact of monetary policy is homogeneous across regions. Our structural model implies that this assumption only holds in the knife-edge --- and counterfactual --- case when regions are appropriately homogeneous. Resulting conclusions on the effect of a fiscal stimulus from these methods, therefore, require deep caution.
After developing an estimation method that is consistent with our structural model, we will apply this method to the identification of the aggregate (and local) fiscal multiplier: the (relative) increase in national GDP caused by a (relative, respectively) increase in government spending. Accurate measures of the fiscal multiplier are essential for policy making: these inform and guide governments in the use of fiscal policy to stimulate GDP. The induced expansion in GDP must be weighed against the already extreme levels of public debt, and the wide aversion to a tax increase. These considerations are especially paramount now because of the increased public balance sheets due to COVID-19. Importantly, we will compare our method to the current, and famous, methods identifying the local fiscal multiplier. This exercise will quantify the magnitude of the biases that arise from the prevalent symmetry assumptions. Ultimately, we aim to provide a toolkit for feasible empirical implementation, that is able to be easily used by other researchers.

 

研究課題 政府統計ミクロデータを使った消費者物価の経済分析
研究代表者 白塚重典 (慶應義塾大学)
研究分担者
田中雅行(一橋大学),渡辺努(東京大学),須藤直(日本銀行)
本研究では、消費者物価指数の基礎統計である小売物価統計調査の個票データを使い、①価格改定頻度等の物価変動動学の特性と②個々の調査価格を品目レベルに集計する際の計測誤差(下位代替バイアス)の2つ問題について検証する。
まず、物価変動動学の特性については、先行研究として、小売物価統計調査の公表系列で最も集計度の低い品目別・都市別平均価格データを用いた研究が存在する。そこでは、価格粘着性は財で低い一方サービスで高く、また両者の差は近年拡大傾向にあること、さらに、近年の消費者物価上昇率の低下には価格改定頻度の低下が寄与しており、価格改定ごとの価格改定率の変化はほとんど寄与していないことなどが示されている。本研究では、こうした発見事実のほか、品目ごとの価格改定の季節パターンの違いや時間を通じての変化などについて、小売物価統計調査の最小調査単位である個別調査銘柄の情報を使うことで、より厳密な実証分析を行う。特に、個別価格調査銘柄レベルの情報を使った実証結果を、POSデータを使った実証結果と対比することで、調査品目をかなり細かく定義したうえで調査対象商品を厳密に特定化するとともに、特売価格を排除し、月中の特定日に価格調査を行うという消費者物価統計の価格調査方法が消費者物価全体の変動動学の特性に及ぼす影響を明らかにできると期待される。
次に、下位代替バイアスについては、わが国消費者物価統計では、上述のような調査銘柄特定方法のもと、同一品目内における調査価格のバラツキが小さく、下位代替バイアスは限定的であると考えられてきた。この点、米国消費者物価統計では、調査品目をかなり幅広く設定したうえで、調査対象商品をランダムサンプリングにより選定している結果、同一品目内における調査価格のバラツキが極めて大きい。このため、下位代替バイアスの問題が無視できず、調査価格の品目レベルへの集計方式を算術平均から幾何平均へと移行する必要に迫られた。わが国の消費者物価については、データの利用可能性の問題もあり、下位代替バイアスについて厳密な実証的検証は行われてこなかった。ただし、わが国の消費者物価においても、調査銘柄の対象範囲の広さや価格調査品目の特定化の度合いは、品目によりいくつかのパターンがある。このため、本研究において、わが国消費者物価指数の下位集計バイアスに関する厳密な実証的検証を行うことは、わが国消費者物価の精度を確認するうえで、極めて重要な情報となると期待される。
 

 

研究課題 Health Status, Medicaid, and Medical Utilization in a Vulnerable Migrant Population
研究代表者 Timothy J Halliday, PhD (University of Hawaii at Manoa)
研究分担者
Randall Akee, PhD(UCLA),Teresa Molina, PhD(University of Hawaii at Manoa)
Researchers have shown that Medicaid, an insurance program for poor Americans, confers important benefits (e.g. Miller, et al. 2019).  In addition, recent work by Halliday and Akee (2020) and Molina, et al. (2020) has shown that the benefits of Medicaid are especially pronounced for vulnerable migrants.  Among Micronesian immigrants residing in Hawaii (COFA migrants), they show that access to Medicaid increases utilization, reduces uninsured visits to the emergency room, and lowers mortality rates.
We propose to build on earlier work by estimating the effects of Medicaid on the medical utilization of COFA migrants and, specifically, how these effects vary by the migrant’s underlying health status. This work will exploit a policy change that took place in the State of Hawaii in which COFA migrants were transitioned from the state’s Medicaid program to a policy in which they were eligible for subsidies to purchase private health insurance from the exchanges set up by the Affordable Care Act. Previous work has shown that this transition had profound effects on health care utilization.  However, how the transition impacted the sickest migrants remains an open question.  This study proposes to fill this void.