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論文要旨

Vol. 62, No. 3, pp. 209-224 (2011)

“The Real Growth of Chinese Industry Debate Revisited--Reconstructing China's Industrial GDP in 1949-2008--”
Harry X. Wu (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University)

This study revisits the debate about the real growth performance of Chinese industry by investigating two effects that may affect the Laspeyres quantity index that I constructed earlier (Wu, 1997 and 2002), i.e. substitution bias, known as the Gerschenkron effect, and time-variant value added ratio. Based on a substantially revised and updated time series of major industrial commodities in physical measures, the newly constructed indices with three alternative IO Table weights demonstrate a clear Gerschenkron effect, hence lowering the estimate for China's real industrial growth, and the confirmed declining trend in value added ratio has a further downward adjustment effect on the estimated real industrial growth. In addition, a comparison of my results with the official estimates does not reveal any regularity reflecting quality change that may have been under-measured in the commodity approach.