Chapter6 Main Results


The estimates of historical GDP in China based on the methodological descriptions in Chapters 1 to 5 are shown in the second half of this report (Tables A.1-A.24).

Table A.1 shows historical GDP and GDE (expenditure approach GDP) at current prices for 1952-1995. The discrepancy between GDP and GDE shows remarkable fluctuations while it remains in the allowable range as shown by Table A.2. Table A.2 also shows the structure of gross domestic expenditure at current prices for 1952-1995. The ratio of gross capital formation to GDP shows a remarkably high value for 1958-1960. After its stagnation for 1960s it showed stable movement at around 33% for 1970-1984 and an increase for 1984-1995.

Table A.4 presents GDP by sector at current prices for 1952-1995 while Table A.4 shows the revised estimate of value added of tertiary industries for 1990-1995. Table A.5 shows structure of GDP by major sector at current prices. Tables A.6 and A.7 shows structure of GDP by sector at current prices and structure of value added of tertiary industries.

Table A.8 presents real growth rates of GDP for 1953-1995. Figure 2 displays real growth rates of GDP by major sector. From this figure it can easily be seen that the growth figures of secondary industry experienced remarkable jumps and drops for 1953-1970 and that those of primary industry suffered serious recession in the late 1950s and stagnated after 1985. Figure 3 shows cumulative real growth figures for 1952-1995. This figure clearly shows that China entered a growth era after 1970 and a rapid growth era after 1980. Only growth figures of secondary industry showed remarkably high values after 1970 while growth figures of primary industry stagnated for the period and those of tertiary industry paralleled those of the macro growth figures.

Table A.9 shows details of revised data of real growth rates of tertiary industries for 1991-1995.

Tables A.10 and A.11 present cumulative growth figures of historical GDP while Table A.12 summarizes average growth figures of GDP for various FYP (five year plan) periods.

Tables A.13 to A.20 shows details of consumption related data while Tables A. 20 to A.24 shows those of investment related data. Figure 4 visualizes movement of real growth rates of GDP, consumption and investment for 1953-1995. It can be seen from this figure that growth rates of gross capital formation showed drastic jumps and drops for 1953-1970 and cyclical movements during the whole period 1953-1995.