This reconstruction of Vietnam's population history is based on the following data This reconstruction of Vietnam's population history is based on the following data : 1909-1938 birth rate and death rate series as they re estimated for the Cochinchina province, using French administration sources re estimated for the Cochinchina province, using French administration sources ; total population estimates for Vietnam, 1950-1989, published by the United Nations Population Council ; five year population age structure for Vietnam 1989, as published byhe UN Population Council.
The reconstruction uses the Inverse Projection method, as developed by Van de Walle (1972) and Lee (1974). It projects a hypothetical population age structure from 1909 on to 1989, that fits as close as possible to estimated and observed data, especially to the final 1989 population age structure. The method, and its underlying hypotheses, are discussed in the appendix.
Letfs first look at the final 1989 population fit. Among the available registered data, the 1989 population age numbers are the more reliable. Figure 1 shows both registered and reconstructed data.
The fit looks good. The rather peculiar flexion at the age of 40 years has been reproduced very precisely, and so are the all-over male and female survival patterns and their relative balance.
Outlying values are met for young girls only: 0-14 year old girls seem overestimated by 6 to 9 %. In other words, 0-14 year old girls seem underregistered at the 1989 census. Young boys, on the contrary, seem correctly registered. This might reflect reconstruction methods rather than real observations : the reconstruction has been able to fit close to boys registered numbers at the same time as it fitted to the other age groups. So there was no need to introduce boys underregistration, although this might have been the case.
Boys under-registration at the 1989 census might have occurred, but if so, girls underregistration would increase for the same amount. The real problem, though, is to determine whether the įmissing girlsā have been underregistered at the census, or if they are really missing, i.e. if they have been eliminated at birth or avoided by abortion, as Ansley Coale supposes for Chinese girls.
Total population increase (fig 2) fits well over the 1950-1989 period. It shows a turning point in the late 1940s. This turning point evokes the one we saw in the pyramid profile (fig 1) at the age of 40 years. The former calls for the latter, and the other way around. But does it match with reasonable demographic behaviour ? Which birth and death rates could cope with this turning point ? We'll have to look at registered and reconructed vital rates.
Figure 3 shows the registered and reconstructed vital rates. Remember that registered vital rates, before 1940, concern the Cochinchine province (Table 23, appendix 3) and have been supposed to be valid for all of Vietnam.
Over the 1914-1933 period, reconstructed birth and death rates are very close to registered values. This is not quite true for the 1934-1938 birth rate, which has been diminished by the reconstruction. From 1940 to 1988, no reliable rates are available other than the total increase rate. The reconstruction respects the slope of the curve, but it diminishes the increase rate over the period 1959-1968. At the end of the period (1989-1993), reconstructed values catch up with registered ones, as these have to be considered as reliable.
Figure 3 shows an increase of the birth rate at the end of the 1940s, and a simultaneous decline of mortality. Birth rates rise from about 3,5 % in 1914-1938 to over 4,0 % in the 1950s. This seems considerable. Yet, it might result from three sources : urbanisation (urban pretransitional population has often higher fertility), better food conditions (especially after the very difficult early 1940s), and post-war birth recovery (the international environment is particularly baby-minded).
Curiously enough, reconstructed rates don't seem to have been disturbed by the dramatic events Vietnam went through in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970. Nor do the observed total increase rates. Is this quite reliable ?
Figure 4 shows four estimations of the labour force, according to four age-gender definitions : 15-64 and 15-60 year old total population, 15-64 and 15-60 year old men. The point of inflection is no longer at the late 1940s, but in the mid 1960s. It corresponds with the turning point in the Vietnam war.
Let us consider now employment in various sectors as a share of male labour force. Female labour force is not considered here because women were very few among registered native workers. A broad definition, 15-64 year old total population, is retained here for the labour force but a narrow definition (15-59 year) would induce only minor changes. Regarding non-European employment in civil and military Vietnam administration under French rule (figures 5), the rise was rather modest, although an upward trend clearly existed. The figures remained under 1 % of male labour force all over the period. For post-WWII, the figures would be actually much higher if it would be possible to include Viet Minh administration. As indicated above, further investigations are also required in order to correct for underregistration of temporary workers.
In comparison with administration employment, the rise of non-European employment in public primary education (teachers) is remarkable before the mid-1930s. To a lesser extent, this is true again for public health services during the late 1920s and early 1930s. But as a share of the labour force, the figures remained extremely low considering that most of the workers were not doctors but nurses. The economic policy, aiming at investment in human capital, persisted during the late 1930s, but had to cut down during WWII and Indochina War. As a consequence, employment fell to previous levels reached in the early 1920s.
Patterns similar to the rise and decline in public education and health services are observed for private employment in coal mining. The late 1920s correspond clearly to a take-off in this sector, which accounted during peak years to almost 1% of the estimated male labour force (in the broad definition). This level is very close to the share of this sector in Japanese employment during the same period, demonstrating the magnitude of the economic transformation occurring in Vietnam during the inter-war. The decline and rebound during the 1930s provide an interesting indication for exploring the cyclical behaviour of Vietnam's economy before WWII. In absolute figures, the late 1930s correspond to a peak in employment, but as a share of the labour force, coal mining experienced a relative decline. During post WWII years, the share fell below the level reached at the very beginning of the century. Assuming that coal mining was, as a specific sector, representative of the Vietnamese economy as a whole, it seems essential to consider post-war Vietnam employment trends in historical perspective, especially from the point of view of a possible collapse, after a relative golden age during the interwar.
