It was in spring 1996, barely two years ago, that I was named the coordinator of the China Group for the Asian Historical Statistics Project. China is the largest country in Asia, and it has close ties to Japan, both historically and culturally, so perhaps it was natural that our group's work would elicit great interest within the Statistics Project. Yet, because the opportunities for using basic statistics are so limited, there is no country for which research is more difficult. Of course, it is much the same for the other Asian countries, yet China presents some singularly difficult conditions.
To begin with, the statistics compilation system was wrecked during the Cultural Revolution. Not only did the preparation of new statistics cease, but previously collected primary materials were scattered or lost. In addition, prior to the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, no government ever controlled the entire land area of China. This means that it is difficult to find statistics covering the whole of the country.
Thus, the task of compiling historical statistics for China is far harder than compiling them for Japan, as we did in the earlier Long-term Economic Statistics of Japan project. Nevertheless, taking up the challenge of conducting research on China is essential given the country's unsurpassed importance. Without it, understanding Asia's long-term economic development will not be possible.
The members of the China Group are listed below (with subgroup leaders in bold).
General Ryoshin Minami (alternate: Fumio Makino)
(1) National income statistics (GDP-GDE)
Pre-liberation Yoshiro Matsuda, Masaaki Kuboniwa, Yue Wei, etc.
Post-liberation Masaaki Kuboniwa, Yoshiro Matsuda, Yue Ximing, State
Statistical Bureau of People's Republic of China
3 Northeast provinces Yuzo Yamamoto
(2) Productivity statistics (GDP items)
Agriculture Hiroshi Sato,Yoshiki Enatsu, Fumio Makino, Luo Huanzhen
Manufacturing Fumio Makino, Toru Kubo, Guan Quan
Infrastructural industries Du Jin, Hao Renping
(3) Expenditure-related statistics (GDP items)
Trade Kyoji Fukao, Hajime Kose, Yue Ximing
Consumption-capital formation Fumio Makino, Liu Deqiang, Guan Quan
(4) Other
Population and labor force Xue Jinjun, Ryoshin Minami, Luo Huanzhen
Prices and wages Liu Deqiang
Public finance Du Jin, Hao Renping
Monetary finance Sui Qingyuan
The first subgroup is taking charge of estimates for the national income system. For the postwar era, this task was being conducted jointly with China's State Statistical Bureau. The results, I am pleased to note, have already been published (see Prof. Kuboniwa's article in this Newsletter). Work on compiling prewar national income estimates is in progress, and is being conducted as a joint research project between researchers in the China group and the State Statistical Bureau. However, this task is extremely difficult, and, in all honesty, I do not know if we will be able to obtain satisfactory results.
Subgroup 2 is compiling output statistics on major industries, and focusing its main efforts on the prewar era. (It is not covering the postwar period because the relevant statistics will be used in the industry-specific estimates being compiled by Subgroup 1.) For agriculture and manufacturing (see the papers in this newsletter by Profs. Sato and Makino), value added as well as value of production output will be estimated, and we plan to use the results to check the GDP estimates being compiled by Subgroup 1. In addition, the railway industry has been chosen as a substitute for infrastructural industries, and the relevant statistics on railways are being prepared (see the information on Prof. Renping's work in other papers in this Newsletter). Unfortunately, it was decided that compiling estimates on the so-called service industries is not feasible, and this task was abandoned.
Subgroup 3 is undertaking the compilation of estimates of items of effective demand, namely trade value, and consumption and capital formation. Because there is a wealth of materials on statistics and other information from the Maritime Customs, we expect to compile high quality estimated results on trade value (see the paper by Prof. Kose). However, work on estimating consumption and capital formation has not yet begun because we plan to employ the commodity flow method for which production statistics are necessary.
Subgroup 4 will compile estimates for the other systems. All of these areas are indispensable to research on economic development. For information on population in the Republic of China era I refer the reader to Prof. Luo's essay (in this newsletter). Research was slow to get underway for prices and wages, public finance, and monetary finance, so the work remains behind schedule. However, we expect to complete the tasks and produce satisfactory estimates.
The China Group has held research meetings at approximately two-month intervals. At these meetings, the coordinators of the various subgroups have presented progress reports and discussed data concepts, ideas for using statistical data, and ideas for using the completed data. Beginning in the fall of 1997, we began a second round of reports, which expanded to include reports of estimated results for areas such as manufacturing, population, and railways. Further, we recently held a workshop which was attended by Shigeru Ishikawa, a pioneer among Japanese researchers on Chinese economics, Liu Foding, a specialist in modern economic history, and
Li Qiang (National Economic Calculations Office of China's State Statistical Bureau), who is presently in charge of national income statistics for the China Group.
While the various groups have made different degrees of progress, the research in general is on schedule for the time being. My hope is that is that the group members will complete the preliminary estimates by December 1998, then check one another's results and make revisions, and, finally, make adjustments to render the overall results compatible and to improve the overall quality of the estimates.
The initial results of the participants will be published as discussion papers (several have already been completed), and we would like to receive comments and advice from readers.
As can be seen in the table, a large number of researchers are contributing to the work of the China Group. The group comprehends a considerable wealth of talent, and its composition is unique, as it includes both veteran and younger scholars, and maintains a balance between economists and historians. We have benefited from the energetic research activities of many members, but I would like to make special mention of the young Chinese scholars, some of whom are about to complete their doctorates or will do so in the near future. Their contributions have exceeded expectations. If the Statistics Project contributes the formation of new scholars, then no other achievement could be any more rewarding.
Tokyo Keizai University