As an opportunity to examine progress reports of the Asian Historical Statistics Database Project, we held an international workshop titled "Statistical Explorations of Asian Growth in a Comparative Perspective, c.1890-1990," on 27-28 February, 1998, at Sano Shoin Guest House, Hitotsubashi University. The objectives of the workshop were to elicit comments and criticisms on the outcomes of the first half of the five-year long project as well as to exchange views on the interpretation thereof. In our judgement, the workshop successfully achieved its objectives, thanks to the co-operation by so many partipants, numbering close to sixty each day, from all over the world.
The workshop was inaugurated by Prof. Y. Kiyokawa, Director of the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. In the first session, Prof. C. Peter Timmer of the Institute for International Development, Harvard University gave his invited lecture "Asian Economic Growth in Historical and Comparative Perspectives." After reviewing implications from recent growth theories, he gave an overview of Asian growth performance to raise issues relevant to our project, suggesting important roles of long-term statistics on savings and their mobilization and on labor force stock.
After the invited lecture, progress reports by region were presented, mostly by Japanese scholars, followed by questions and comments from designated commentators from abroad and floor discussion.
Prof. T. Kawagoe (Seikei University) presented his paper "Changes in Rice Production in Asia: A Comparative Estimation Approach." He explored possible obstacles in compiling historical rice statistics and provided a comparative overview of rice production in Asia using the FAO database. As his commentator, Prof. Pierre van der Eng of Australian National University pointed out the importance of careful investigation on demand-supply conditions, trade policies, and income levels and growth, in comparing rice production internationally.
Next was my presentation titled "Agricultural Development in India and Pakistan: c.1900-1990." In this paper, production statistics of major farm commodities were estimated for the current border regions of India and Pakistan, based on which long-term variations in agricultural production in the two coutries were analyzed. Prof. S. N. Mishra, former Director of the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, commented on this presentation with respect to the data interpretation and the relevance of diversification measures used.
In the last presentation of the afternoon, the paper "Estimates of Vietnamese GDP: 1975-95" by Prof. Tran Van Tho (Obirin University) was summarized by Prof. Konosuke Odaka (Hitotsubashi University). Prof. Jean-Pascal Bassino, UniversiteL Paul ValeLry, compared Tho's estimates with other scholars' estimates and commented from the perspective of long-run economic development in Vietnam.
The morning session started with the presentation of "Note on National Income of Pre-War Thailand" by Prof. M. Falkus (University of New England, Australia). His paper focused on the method of estimating pre-war Thai national income through estimating rice production, emphasizing regional variation. Complementing his presentation, a discussion on methods for estimating non-commercialized production and adjusting for quality differences of rice was conducted by commentators including Prof. van der Eng.
Prof. H. Okuda (Hitotsubashi University) presented his paper "Financial Development in the Philippines: 1946-97," characterizing its development in a historical perspective. Prof. Germelino Bautista of Atheneo de Manila University commented from the viewpoint of the interrelation among finanical development, industrial policy, and macroeconomic development in the Philippines.
In the last presentation of the morning, Prof. H. Tanada (Waseda University) summarized findings from his paper "Regional Population in Egypt: 1882-1917." To this paper, Prof. O. Saito, Hitotsubashi University, commented with the same census data processed from the demographic viewpoint.
The afternoon sessions were devoted to economies in transition to a market economy. Dr. Ximing Yue and Prof. M. Kuboniwa of Hitotsubashi University presented their paper "Growth and Regional Inequality of Postwar China." This study is based on results from collaborative work between this project and China's State Statistical Bureau. Yue's part was especially focused on regional inequality in postwar China. Prof. Harry X. Wu of Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Prof. Thomas G. Rawski of the University of Pittsburgh made their comments with respect to the reliability of data, relevance of concepts used, future direction of research, etc.
Two presentations for the former Soviet Union areas concluded the two-day workshop. Prof. Kuboniwa's presentation "Economic Growth in Russia and Central Asia: Estimating GDP" provided his revised estimates for Russia and Central Asia, comparing them with official data. He clarified problems in converting MPS based statistics into NAS based ones, to which Dr. Y. Ivanov, CIS Statistical Committee, Moscow, added his interpretations.
The last paper presented was "Long-term Economic Statistics on Russian Far East: Research Prospects" by Prof. K. Mochizuki (Hokkaido University). He compiled available statistics for the area using the very limited existing studies. Prof. Nadezhda Mikheeva, Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, made her comments with respect to data reliability including the basic population statistics.
Prof. Odaka, project leader, concluded the workshop summarizing the task ahead as crystalized through the two-day long discussion. We would appreciate comments from the readers about the workshop and the project.
Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research