The purpose of the Asian Historical Statistics Project is to construct a systematic, long-term database incorporating macroeconomic statistics from the countries of Asia (broadly defined).
At present, macro economic analysis seems relatively unpopular. Since the real significance of macrolevel statistics is sometimes not very clear, it is natural that researchers are often tempted to make maximum use of micro (rather than macro) level materials in order to observe the decision making processes of the economic actors. Closely related to the present trend toward emphasizing microlevel over macrolevel analysis are the collapse of the planned economies -- which their own governments took the lead in proclaiming -- and the current tendency toward emphasizing the market throughout the world.
This does not, of course, mean that the macrolevel statistical information represented by GDP has lost its value. Macrolevel statistics are necessary to understand general economic movements at a country level, and also essential for formulating economic policy or for measuring the impact of those policies. Further, when we try to acquire a historical view of the course of economics, which is a prerequisite for thinking about or discussing the present and future, macrolevel, long-term statistics provide extraordinarily important assistance. It is in this sense that the compilation of the macroeconomic database has such significance.
To understand the present importance of macreconomic statistics, one has to recall the course of macroeconomics since the 1930s. Tremendous attention was given to economic controls and to macroeconomic policy (especially the monitoring of total demand) before the war and then during and after the conflict. In addition, a strong influence was exerted by economic research in the marketeconomy countries, especially the United States.
At the same time, industrialization spread throughout the world, and the new concept of "economic development" became a center of attention. This was because the United States, recognized as the leader of the free world and the pillar of the Pax Americana, regarded economic turmoil and mass poverty as major causes of political instability. Many members of the intelligentsia shared that perception, leading to a groundswell of research and education on economic development throughout America, as well as numerous debates on development policy, and the provision of training in policy implementation to promising people. That the US was able to nurture a large number of personnel with experience and expertise in extending assistance to developing countries owed in large part to the tremendous efforts made by its institutes of higher education. In retrospect, the 1952 launching of Economic Development and Cultural Change, a journal specializing in development issues, holds great historical significance. The editor of the journal was Bert Hoselitz, a professor of sociology at the University of Chicago.
Although some parts of the world are clearly prosperous, poverty is dominant elsewhere, indicating that inequality is the reality of the world. Needless to say, rates of growth in real per capita income also evince differentials over the long term. Why is this? Researchers who have emphasized economic development rather than economic growth express this phenomenon in the following manner.
The introductory editorial1 to the first issue of Economic Development and Cultural Change stated (1) there did not exist a satisfactory social science theory dealing with economic development and cultural change, (2) that because the area was new, there was no agreement on which issues were most important, (3) measuring economic development is difficult, but (4) ultimately, concern would focus on increases in material welfare, however measured. The editorial then goes on to state that the emphasis on material welfare is due "not only to our Wesern cultural bias in this direction, but also because it is precisely such apirations, expressed with urgency by non-Western peoples, which have compelled recent Western considerations of the matter.2 Later it adds that "the development of the West has created an environment in which local progress will inevitably consist in large part of selective imitation and adaptation from this environment. The problem of economic growth in presently underdeveloped areas therefore can be viewed as one involving the transmittal of culture rather than simply one of local innovation3. In reading this manifesto, we can easily understand that the author views the world from a Western perspective, that material conditions are his main concern, that his faith in progress is strong, and that he candidly discusses matters such as cultural transfer.
In this conception, economic development is intimately bound up with Westernization, industrialization, urbanization, industrial revolution, and modernization. Thus the implicit understanding is of the history of industrialization in the West. It is natural that no other perspectives are brought in when the debate is among American and European scholars. However, whether this sort of universalism will be accepted as natural outside of the West is an issue calling for further investigation.
Simon Kuznets' Modern Economic Growth4 clarified the concept of production-centered economic development. Modern Economic Growth proposes that per capita production volume rises continuously while at the same time the economic structure changes on a wide scale. According to Kuznets, the distinctive features of modern economic growth are (1) the extensive application of scientific discoveries to production activities, and (2) the influence of secularism, egalitarianism, and nationalism. He defines secularism as an attitude which places priority on life in this world and respects economic achievements, while egalitarianism is a perspective which does not acknowledge natural differences among people. Nationalism is the sense that a group of people with a common historical and cultural heritage (or the belief that they share such a heritage) forms a single political unit, creating a perception which makes possible the conduct of policy and long-term decision making. The natural result of advocating nationalism is that the national state becomes the unit in which modern economic growth is conceived as occurring. In this viewpoint, one can clearly see how the slogan of the French Revolution, "LiberteL, EgaliteL, FraterniteL," has had such a powerful impact on thinking about economic development.
The aftereffects of the above scholarly trends naturally spread beyond the US. In Japan, the influence was initially felt most clearly at Hitotsubashi University. The outcome was the Long-term Economic Statistics project conducted by Kazushi Ohkawa and other researchers. Assisted by the Rockefeller Foundation, and later supported by research grants from the Ministry of Education as well, the project was started up in 1951. Thanks to the high growth experienced by Japan throughout the 1960s, the Long-term Economic Statistics project, which gathered macroeconomic statistical information, later attracted a great deal of attention.
The Asian Historical Statistics Project began as the successor to the Long-term Economic Statistics project. This means that the current project's task, tracing the entire macroeconomic course of 20th century Asia through the compilation of statistical information, is also a joint effort of economists, historians, area specialists, and statisticians. This concentration of expertise has been achieved through the creation of a globe-spanning network with Japan at its center. In the process, a concern with Asian economic history both broad and deep will be enhanced, generating an important legacy of scholarly knowledge.
Last fall, the Statistics Project passed its midway point, and this year we will begin to aggregate the results. Concretely, we plan to (a) push harder in areas where progress has been relatively slow; (b) focus more attention on rendering cross-national data mutually compatible; (c) prepare to open the database to public use by making available information on the investigation of the nature of the estimation results and statistical housing; and (d) begin preparations for publishing the results. The present Statistics Project cannot adequately attempt or accomplish all of the objectives that need to be accomplished, so we want to pass research topics on to scholars of the next generation while systematically indicating to them a number of research tasks remaining to be conducted. Among these tasks will be gathering information on "quality of life," an area which has been receiving considerable attention in recent years.
Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research
(1) Alexander J. Morin, "Editorial," Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume1 (1952-53), pp. 3-7.
(2) Ibid., p. 3
(3) Ibid., p. 4
(4) Simon Kuznets, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, Speed (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).