Konosuke Odaka : Could you tell us your impressions about statistics gathering in different areas in Asia?
Nobuhiko Kosuge : Indonesia's postwar statistics system was introduced by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the World Bank (IBRD), so it is very solid. Of course, there may still be questions about how well surveys were actually conducted at the local level.
Hiroshi Nemoto : There have sometimes been changes in Thailand's postwar policy on compiling statistics. As the people in charge change, the policies change as well. There have been a lot of different programs, but the order of priorities has frequently been revised.
There was a plan to introduce the new SNA (of 1968), and for a time they were very enthusiastic about it, but in the end it was abandoned. This time, I hear that they plan to move beyond that by adopting the 1993 SNA, but I don't know if they're making much progress or not.
There is good production data on agricultural products and so on, but there are problems with statistics on distribution and output.
Kosuge : In the case of Indonesia, since there are I-O tables, there won't be big errors if one chooses their benchmark years as the basic reference point. However, the problem is that they use a package program, which may become outdated as time goes on. It's possible that the package program will cease to reflect real conditions, but that no one will notice.
Odaka : It would be helpful to interview some of the people who supervised or worked on economic statistics in the 1950s and around 1960 to try to find out how they constructed their statistical systems and how accurate they were.
Kosuge : The developing countries that got into financial trouble and had to borrow from overseas were forced to establish a statistical system according to guidelines laid down by international agencies. In that regard, Indonesia is the honor student. One may uncover valuable information on how the actual statistics were gathered and compiled, and so on, if one identifies and interviews the expatriates who instructed the local statisticians.
On the other hand, there are many Middle East oil-producing countries whose statistical data is of very poor quality. Since their national finances are in good shape they rarely cause problems for international agencies, and there haven't been any opportunities to improve their statistical systems.
Nemoto : I gained some valuable experience when I was at the OECF (Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund). In India, the state governments have a lot of power, and they possess large amounts of data. It is very difficult to know how to make use of this regional statistical information, or how to compile historical macro statistics. It might be best to gather the macro statistics on a regional basis.
Odaka : That is probably a task for the generation after us.
Kosuge : In developing countries it is often difficult to make proper judgments on the basis of aggregate statistics, since there are so many local variations in prices, depending on regions and social classes.
Odaka : In our project, we plan to use the 1968 SNA as the basic frame of reference...
Kosuge : I think that's a good idea. The 1993 SNA has a lot of new features which place importance on factors like income transfers, the growth of information industries and of multi-national enterprises, and so on. It was designed to devote special attention to conditions in undeveloped countries. However, there are situations where the necessary data are not available, and also times when it can't be verified.
Odaka : Please tell me your general impressions about our project.
Nemoto : Until now, regional analysis has generally been left to regional specialists. For matters concerning any region, a single person would cover anything.
These days, however, experts in finance and other specialized fields are often called on to conduct analysis on particular regions, even though they know little about the local conditions. I think this project provides a good opportunity for them to learn a great deal from various regional specialists.
Odaka : In our project, too, there are some groups whose members are not necessarily specialists on the region they cover. But I think that this approach might prove useful because such people can provide original insights.
This meeting was held at the Economic Planning Agency's Research Bureau.
Nobuhiko Kosuge is an official with the Research Bureau of the Economic Planning Agency, and was an advisor to the Asian Historical Statistics Project during fiscal year 1996.
Hiroshi Nemoto is director of the Economic Planning Agency's Institute of National Accounts, and serves on the Advisory Committee for the Statistics Project.15